The betting public has been feasting in the NFL over the last two weeks. Since the start of Week 5, road favorites have gone 15-0 against the spread (ATS).
As with all things in football, what goes up must come down, and I have my eyes set on some underdogs in Week 8 for my NFL picks.
There are no teams on bye this week, meaning we have a loaded 16-game slate to break down. That includes a few exciting divisional battles, a duel between Jalen Hurts and Joe Burrow, and the potential first of many matchups between rookies Jayden Daniels and Caleb Williams. Let's dive into the matchups, starting with a fascinating Thursday Night Football duel between old friends Kevin O'Connell and Sean McVay.
NFL Predictions for Week 8
| Category |
|---|
| Thursday Night Football |
| Friday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 8 Picks |
Thursday Night Football
Vikings vs. Rams
The Vikings are in a tricky situational spot here, playing on the road on a short week after a thrilling divisional game against the Lions. This game certainly screams a letdown spot against a 2-4 Rams team, but I’m not taking the bait. Minnesota simply has too many schematic advantages on both sides of the ball.
The Rams should get Cooper Kupp back in the lineup for this game, but that doesn’t fix an offense that has lacked continuity and cohesion all season. Matthew Stafford has been pressured on 26.5% of his dropbacks, the third-highest rate in the NFL, and he ranks 32nd out of 38 qualified quarterbacks in PFF’s passing grades under pressure.
Brian Flores is a mastermind of generating defensive pressure, and the Vikings rank second in blitz rate and first in pressure rate this season. With Stafford’s lack of mobility, he’s in for a long night behind an offensive line that ranks 31st in pass-blocking.
Meanwhile, Sam Darnold should find plenty of success against a defense that ranks 26th in EPA against the pass. The return of cornerback Darious Williams helps somewhat, but the Rams’ safeties have struggled in coverage, and they rank 27th against the deep ball by DVOA. Darnold is the third-most efficient deep ball passer regarding yards per attempt.
The market tends to overrate the advantage for home teams on the short week, with road teams going 54-40 ATS (57%) on Thursdays since 2019. The Rams barely beat the Raiders last week despite a plus-3 turnover margin, including a defensive touchdown, and I don’t expect the Vikings to be as kind with giveaways. I’ll back Kevin O’Connell to lead the Vikings to a bounce-back road win against his former boss, Sean McVay.
Verdict: Bet Vikings -3
Passes
Jets vs. Patriots
The last time we saw these teams play, the Patriots’ first-year coaching staff struggled to adjust to a situation with tricky preparation on a short week on Thursday Night Football. The inexperienced coaching staff must prepare the team to play after a beatdown at the hands of the previously hapless Jaguars in London. Drake Maye undoubtedly infuses excitement, but with a bounty of offensive line injuries and questionable receiving weapons, this offense is still very limited.
However, the Jets are dealing with cluster injuries in the secondary – defensive backs D.J. Reed, Michael Carter II, Tony Adams, Ashtyn Davis and Chuck Clark are all on the injury report. Their statuses will be crucial to handicapping this game. New York’s offense should be trending up, making a play on the over somewhat enticing.
Overall, I’ve run out of patience with the Jets. While I’d say they’re a decent teaser team, I have to wait and see what their secondary injuries look like. This is a pass for now.
Verdict: Pass
Falcons vs. Buccaneers
This line was priced at Tampa Bay -2.5 before Monday Night Football, but it’s dropped all the way to Falcons -2.5 and may not be done moving. Chris Godwin suffered a nasty dislocated ankle that could end his season, while Mike Evans reaggravated his hamstring injury, and he could be out for several weeks like we’ve seen with A.J. Brown and Nico Collins. Baker Mayfield was in the midst of an excellent season, but his production will decline with those critical injuries.
However, the Falcons’ defense is still a sore spot, and Tampa Bay offensive coordinator Liam Coen should be able to scheme production through the run game with a talented three-man backfield. I’d be interested in playing some running back props for the Buccaneers in this game – the Falcons rank 26th in run defense success rate.
Kirk Cousins carved up the Buccaneers’ defense the first time these teams met, finishing with over 500 passing yards and four touchdowns. The Bucs can generate havoc with their defensive front, but they rank just 26th in pass defense success rate, and Cousins should have another productive game.
I’d be interested in backing the Bucs in a revenge game after the Falcons escaped with the win over them earlier this season, but the wide receiver injuries make that a tricky proposition. I’ll wait to see where the market settles before making a decision here.
Verdict: Pass
Titans vs. Lions
The Titans rolled with Mason Rudolph against the Bills last week, and it was predictably ugly as he had two turnover-worthy plays and averaged just 5.2 yards per pass attempt. Tennessee looks poised to return to Will Levis once he’s healthy, which could be as soon as this week, but there shouldn’t be much of a difference in the spread regardless of who is under center for the Titans.
The Lions will be without Jameson Williams for the next two games as he serves a suspension, and it could be difficult to run the ball effectively against the Titans, who have the best defense in the NFL by adjusted line yards. Still, Jared Goff is on an unreal heater, completing 85% of his passes over his last two games with seven touchdowns and no interceptions. I’m not rushing to step in front of that freight train.
There is talent on this Tennessee roster, but they’re arguably in the Carolina bucket of unbettable teams. I wouldn’t lay this crooked number with Detroit, though; this is an easy pass for now.
Verdict: Pass
Packers vs. Jaguars
Jordan Love is going to torch the Jaguars’ defense on Sunday. Love ranks third in the NFL in deep pass attempt rate, and he’s in full gunslinger mode, throwing for 15 touchdowns to eight interceptions in just five games this season. Jacksonville ranks dead last against the pass by DVOA, and even Drake Maye threw for 276 yards and two touchdowns against them last week.
How you want to bet on the Packers offense this week is up to you – perhaps a team total play is a good look. However, I’ll be waiting for the player props markets to open with an eye toward laddering Love’s passing yards and betting on Jayden Reed in a phenomenal matchup against a jet-lagged Jacksonville defense coming back from London.
Verdict: Pass
Bills vs. Seahawks
With the benefit of some extra rest after a brutal schedule stretch, the Seahawks beat the Falcons, moving them into first place in the admittedly disappointing NFC West. Their reward? Having to face Josh Allen, who ranks second in the NFL in adjusted EPA/play this season. Allen still hasn’t thrown an interception this season despite ranking fourth with ten turnover-worthy plays.
The Bills blitz at the lowest rate in the NFL, resulting in a below-average pressure rate, and Geno Smith is excellent from a clean pocket. However, D.K. Metcalf's potential absence must be monitored after an MCL sprain on Sunday. Kenneth Walker should help keep the offense ahead of the sticks against a Buffalo defense that has sometimes struggled against the run.
The Seahawks got somewhat lucky to win last week as they were outgained in yardage and first downs but forced three turnovers, including a fumble return for a touchdown with the Falcons in plus territory. I don’t have a strong take on this game early in the week.
Verdict: Pass
Bears vs. Commanders
The world is hoping for a battle between Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels here, but that may not come to fruition after Daniels suffered a rib injury on Sunday. The rookie phenom is being labeled as “week-to-week,” but the line indicates the market expects him to miss the game, as the line has moved to the Bears as 2.5-point favorites.
Chicago has a handful of injuries in the secondary as defensive backs Kyler Gordon, Tyrique Stevenson, Terrell Smith, and Jaquan Brisker are all listed as questionable. Coming off the bye week, you’d expect most, if not all, to be healthy, but their statuses are worth monitoring, with or without Daniels.
For now, this game is not worth betting on. However, I’ll be interested in playing some Bears’ player props in the passing game this week against the Commanders’ subpar defense.
Verdict: Pass
NFL Week 8 Bets: My Leans
Cardinals vs. Dolphins
The Dolphins are expecting Tua Tagovailoa to return this week, and his impact can’t be overstated for an offense that has looked stuck in the mud since his concussion. However, can we expect Tagovailoa to be firing on all cylinders right when he returns? The Miami offense at its best is entirely based on timing and anticipation, and he might need to shake off some rust in his first game back.
The Cardinals got a much-needed win on Monday night over the Chargers, but this is a brutal cross-country travel spot on a short week with an early kickoff time. I wouldn’t be shocked if their offense has a slow start, especially with Drew Petzing’s vanilla, often irritatingly conservative play-calling. Can we get Marvin Harrison Jr. more than three catches against a pair of rookie fifth-round cornerbacks?
Keep an eye on the weather for this game. The early forecast shows potential winds up to 15 mph, which would only help our case. With the Dolphins’ offense not having its rhythm early and the Cardinals’ offense starting slow, I like the first half under here.
Verdict: Lean First Half Under 23.5 Points
Saints vs. Chargers
After setting the world on fire over the first two weeks of the season, the Saints have devolved into an injury hellscape. WR Chris Olave, OG Cesar Ruiz, OG Nick Saldiveri, and LB Pete Werner are all questionable for this week. WR Rashid Shaheed and CB Paulson Adebo also suffered season-ending injuries. Spencer Rattler is expected to get another start, but it’s tough to expect much of him, given what’s surrounding him.
Jesse Minter’s Chargers defense should present a ton of problems for the rookie quarterback, while Greg Roman’s offense should be able to run the ball all day on this beat-up New Orleans defense that ranks dead last against the run by DVOA. I can’t get to a point where I’m laying a full touchdown with this Chargers team, but this looks like one of the best teaser legs on the board.
Verdict: Lean Chargers -7, Use Chargers as a Teaser Piece
Panthers vs. Broncos
The Panthers were already bad to begin the season, and now they’re one of the most injured teams in the NFL. I’ll save you the headache of listing off all of their major injuries like I did with the Saints, but the loss of center Austin Corbett and offensive tackle Taylor Moton is probably the most significant against Vance Joseph’s defense that leads the NFL in blitz rate.
Bo Nix has left a lot to be desired at times during his rookie season, but the Broncos are finding a run game, which makes his life easier. Javonte Williams is coming off one of his best games with the Broncos with 88 rushing yards and two touchdowns, the first multi-score game of his career. The Panthers rank 31st in DVOA against the run, so keep an eye on the prop markets for Williams.
I wouldn’t rush to lay well over a touchdown with Bo Nix, but the Panthers are irredeemable, and I like the Broncos as a Wong teaser piece this week, taking the spread through the keys of 3 and 7.
Verdict: Lean Broncos -8.5, Use Broncos as a Teaser Piece
Chiefs vs. Raiders
I wish the Raiders had any redeeming qualities. It’s difficult to fathom the Chiefs laying ten points on the road with their top three wide receivers and top running back sidelined (although Isiah Pacheco is eligible to return this week). Patrick Mahomes is just 38-44-2 ATS (46%) as a favorite of more than a field goal, and the Chiefs have only won by more than ten points twice during their current 12-game win streak.
However, I have a hard time building a case for the Raiders here. Running the ball will be very difficult against the Chiefs’ fifth-ranked run defense by DVOA, putting Gardner Minshew behind the sticks against a Steve Spagnuolo defense that will blitz him incessantly – he ranks 30th out of 36 qualified quarterbacks in PFF grades against the blitz.
I could be talked into the Raiders at +10 or better, but I’m not rushing to the window on this one.
Verdict: Lean Raiders +10
Giants vs. Steelers
Russell Wilson performed better than I expected on Sunday in his Steelers debut, but I still have doubts about this offense's future. 62% of his passes came within ten yards of the line of scrimmage, and he struggled under pressure with a 41.5 PFF passing grade. The Giants rank fifth in pass-rush win rate and will be able to put constant pressure on Wilson in this game.
Center Zach Frazier’s status will be essential to watch – Ryan McCollum, his replacement, had a 48.1 PFF grade on Sunday and will face Dexter Lawrence in this game. If Wilson sees constant interior pressure, it would be a real issue, and the Giants’ secondary should hold up with some solid young talent, including standout rookies Dru Phillips and Tyler Nubin.
However, Daniel Jones will also be under duress on Monday against T.J. Watt and the Steelers, who have the league’s best pass rush according to PFF’s grading. With Andrew Thomas out on Sunday, Jones was pressured on 46.7% of his dropbacks against the Eagles and took seven sacks. It’s difficult to see that changing in this matchup.
The Steelers laying nearly a touchdown in this game against a solid Giants defense is rich, but the under might be the better look here. I’m waiting for now to pull the trigger as I’d love to get a 37 on the total, but I lean towards the road dog and the under on Monday Night Football.
Verdict: Lean Giants +6.5 and Under 36.5
NFL Week 8 Picks
Colts vs. Texans
The Texans nearly pulled off the outright upset last week over the Packers, but their offense struggled again. They rank just 31st in early down success rate, ahead of only the Browns, and that’s with Nico Collins for most of the season. The return of Joe Mixon helps provide more of a rushing threat, but offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has repeatedly struggled to get the most out of this offense.
Indianapolis’ defense has been trending up every week, and they now rank 7th in early down success rate allowed. Samuel Womack is a breakthrough talent in the secondary alongside Kenny Moore II, and the Colts could get DeForest Buckner back this week, which would greatly boost the defensive line. I’d normally be looking to bet Collins’ receiving props against Gus Bradley’s Cover 3 defense, but the Texans lack the same level of explosiveness without him.
The Colts, meanwhile, got Anthony Richardson back in the lineup last week and completed just 9-19 passes in the game. Accuracy has been an issue for the second-year quarterback all year – he ranks dead last with a ghastly adjusted completion rate of 59.3%. The expected return of Jonathan Taylor this week will be beneficial, but the Texans rank second in run defense DVOA.
DeMeco Ryans should have a strong game plan for Richardson in this game, and we’ve seen the Texans coach implement a blitz-heavy approach against inexperienced quarterbacks this season. That would be wise against Richardson, who ranks dead last with a brutal 28.9 PFF passing grade against the blitz this season.
The total soared over this number when these teams met earlier this season, but based on how the offenses have performed since, I’m expecting a lower-scoring game in the rematch. 45 and 46 are key numbers in this range, so I’m grabbing this one early in the week.
Verdict: Bet Under 46.5 Points
Ravens vs. Browns
I bet the Browns +10 on Monday with the market shifting to +9.5, partially because I thought the Buccaneers could pull off the upset on Monday night. Oops.
To be fair, I was correct in my expectation that Tampa Bay could limit the Ravens' run game on early downs – their 28% early-down rushing success rate would rank dead last in the NFL this season. However, Lamar Jackson was lethal through the air on passing downs.
I don’t expect the Ravens' offense to have the same success this week against the Browns, who limited Jackson’s production last season. Cleveland’s defense isn’t the same elite unit as last year, but Jim Schwartz will have a strong game plan here. Zay Flowers’ status is also essential to monitor here after suffering an ankle sprain on Monday.
Deshaun Watson suffered a season-ending Achilles injury last week, but it’s challenging to argue that losing him will represent much of a downgrade for the offense. I believe Kevin Stefanski was facing an ownership mandate to keep Watson in the lineup, and he struggled to adapt his offense to fit Watson’s preferences. I’m not expecting any world-beating outfit in Cleveland, but I believe a dead cat bounce could be in order, especially with Jameis Winston playing well in limited snaps on Sunday.
Ultimately, I can’t get to this number when the Bengals closed as 5.5-point favorites over the Browns last week. With the Ravens playing their second straight road game on a short week, I’m plugging my nose and backing the ugly divisional home underdog. For what it’s worth, Lamar Jackson is 8-18-1 ATS (31%) in his career when favored by over 3 points.
The Ravens reopened as 11.5-point favorites after beating the Buccaneers on Monday night, but they quickly took money, and the line has steamed down to the Ravens -9 at most sportsbooks. I don’t expect a +10 to hit the market again, and I’d bet the Browns at +8.5 or better.
Verdict: Bet Browns +8.5 or better
Eagles vs. Bengals
The Bengals’ defense struggled mightily at the beginning of the season, but cluster injuries on the defensive line were a primary culprit, and they’re now healthy upfront. The Eagles will still have the advantage on the interior, although the loss of Jordan Mailata is significant – Fred Johnson started at left tackle last week. He gave up four pressures on just 23 pass-blocking snaps, earning a 44.9 PFF pass-blocking grade. Now, he’ll have to protect Jalen Hurts’ blindside against Trey Hendrickson, who ranks fourth in the NFL with 35 pressures.
Meanwhile, the Eagles’ defense has begun to trend up, but I’m still not fully convinced. Philadelphia still ranks dead last in DVOA against WR1s, and guarding Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will be a tall task for rookie Quinyon Mitchell and a hobbled Darius Slay. Chase Brown can also create rushing explosives against the 28th-ranked unit in adjusted line yards.
However, the central aspect of this handicap is what I perceive as a significant advantage at quarterback for the Bengals. Joe Burrow has had an outstanding season with 14 touchdowns to just two interceptions. He ranks top-five in nearly every advanced passing metric, including adjusted EPA/play and completion percentage over expected.
Jalen Hurts ranks just 18th in adjusted EPA/play and has more turnover-worthy plays than big-time throws this season. The returns of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith help tremendously. Still, I have more faith in the Cincinnati secondary holding up against that duo, with Cam Taylor-Britt, D.J. Turner, and Mike Hilton providing a solid trio at corner.
Even after last week’s blowout win over the Giants, Hurts is just 13-19-1 ATS (40.6%) on the road. I’m backing Joe Burrow to get the Bengals a much-needed home win here.
Verdict: Bet Bengals -2.5
Cowboys vs. 49ers
There might not be a team in the NFL that needed a bye week more than the Cowboys. After their 47-7 loss to the Lions, Dallas had to do some soul-searching, but I expect a better product after that week off. Dak Prescott played at an MVP level last year, and the start of this season has not been up to that standard, but two weeks to watch film and work with Mike McCarthy should produce positive results for the offense.
Meanwhile, the 49ers are reeling after a loss to the Chiefs. Wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is out for the season with a torn ACL, Juaun Jennings is questionable with a hip injury, and Deebo Samuel played just four snaps last week with an undisclosed illness. With Christian McCaffrey still on IR, this offense is mainly falling on the shoulders of Brock Purdy, which is a problem. He can produce in a strong system with elite supporting talent, but he’s not a quarterback I trust to elevate his surroundings.
The Cowboys’ defense could also be getting healthier out of the bye week with edge rusher Micah Parsons, linebacker Eric Kendricks, and cornerback DaRon Bland all trending toward playing on Sunday. Pay attention to their practice reports throughout the week, but regardless, I expect a better defensive game plan from Mike Zimmer off the bye week.
Ultimately, I can’t get to this spread over a field goal, and the 49ers are still overinflated in a market that hasn’t caught up to their injuries. I believe this is a solid opportunity to buy low on the Cowboys coming off their bye week against an opponent they’ll be highly motivated to beat.
Verdict: Bet Cowboys +4.5
