Amon-Ra St. Brown
ATD +155 (FanDuel)
In the first four weeks of the season, St. Brown had 33 targets, five in the red zone, and three touchdowns. Then he had a bit of bad luck with injuries, which have hindered him. He practiced in full on Thursday and Friday, though, and is ready to go.
Now, St. Brown gets a matchup against a Dolphins team that ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL in receiving yards, receptions and touchdowns allowed to wide receivers.
D’Andre Swift is going to return action, as well. It’s not a coincidence that the Lions have struggled so much offensively in their last two games. Two key playmakers returning should get Detroit going.
This is a bit of a chalky play, but this number should be +110 if St. Brown is healthy.
Tyler Higbee
ATD +320 (FanDuel)
This pick is based on three factors.
1) First thing is the odds. Higbee hasn’t been above +250 all season. His odds in the first game against the 49ers back in Week 4 were +250.
2) About that matchup with the 49ers: Higbee has historically thrived against the them. He had three touchdowns in three games against San Francisco last season. Back in Week 4, he had 10 catches on 14 targets.
3) Outside of Cooper Kupp, there hasn’t been a more consistent skill player on the field than Higbee for the Rams. He’s played more than 90% of snaps in all but one game this season, and he’s second on the team in targets, routes run and red-zone targets.
San Francisco is going to do everything it can to contain Kupp, which I think leads to Higbee taking advantage and scoring his first touchdown of the season.
Rondale Moore
ATD +340 (FanDuel)
Looking at the matchup, you’d think DeAndre Hopkins is the best pick, but he’s down to -110 at some books against the Vikings.
In four games since returning from injury, Moore has played more than 85% of snaps and has 25 targets, three of which are in the red zone.
Outside of their loss to the Eagles, the Vikings haven’t really been exploited by a wide receiver, but the deep pass is where they’ve been burned. Minnesota is 22nd in passing yards allowed to the position, and that includes facing QBs like Teddy Bridgewater, Justin Fields and Andy Dalton.
Murray has had seven games with two or more touchdown passes with Hopkins in the lineup and just two without him. That’s why Greg Dortch scored last week against the Saints, because so much attention was being paid to Hopkins.
For what its worth, Moore’s only career touchdown was scored in Minneapolis last season on a huge 77-yard reception.
Sam Ehlinger
ATD +390 (DraftKings)
This is likely to blow up in my face or see him get carted off the field, but I’m very intrigued by this matchup potential for Ehlinger.
While not a prototypical running QB, Ehlinger had 33 rushing touchdowns at Texas. Obviously, the Commanders are better competition than the Big 12. But even in the preseason, Ehlinger had a 45-yard touchdown run. He’s capable of running his way into the end zone.
Ehlinger could be a poor man’s “Danny Dimes” … “Sammy Nickel,” anyone?
Ehlinger could see jitters in the pocket with the kind of pressure that Washington’s front seven can produce, possibly causing him to tuck the football and run it in. With Jonathan Taylor back in the lineup, we also could see the Colts’ RB1 serve as a decoy for a possible Ehlinger run.
At these odds, let’s take a shot.
Pat Freiermuth
ATD +400 (PointsBet)
Although he only has one touchdown this season, it’s not for a lack of looks. Freiermuth is second on the Steelers in both overall targets and red-zone targets.
The Eagles have been solid against opposing WRs this season, but they’ve been way better against tight ends. Philly has given up two touchdowns to opposing tight ends in its last three games. Darius Slay and James Bradberry have been lockdown cornerbacks this season and are a big reason why the Eagles have only allowed four TDs to opposing wide receivers.
It’s going to be tough, but I’d rather bank on Freiermuth than Diontae Johnson or George Pickens.
