While sides and totals are still the standard when it comes to NFL betting, player props have exploded in popularity for the casual and seasoned bettor. New NFL player prop markets are being offered every season and finding an edge in one of these offerings can be quite profitable.
For the 2022 season, while I’m known as the anytime touchdown prop specialist with Action Network, I’ve decided that I can’t deny my love for all NFL player prop bets and will give out my best bets every week. This could include prop markets like receiving yards, rushing attempts, passing yards, touchdown passes, interceptions and so many more.
Through eight weeks, I’ve gone 9-12 for -0.5 units. As a reference, during the 2021 season (including the playoffs), my record for these props was 43-25 for +21.7 units in profit. Had you blindly tailed me each week since last season, you’d have made profit in 21-of-29 weeks.
As always, you can get all of these picks as soon as I lock them in by downloading the Action Network app.
Here we go for Week 8!
Josh Allen
Over 40.5 Rushing Yards (-110, DraftKings)
We’ve been doing well this season with quarterback rushing yard props. We hit this in Week 4 and 5 so I’m shocked DraftKings has decided to hang this low of a number. We’re taking Josh Allen to log at least 41 rushing yards against the Packers.
The MVP frontrunner has been putting the Bills on his back and is averaging 5.5 yards per carry (fourth amongst all QBs) on 47 attempts in 2022. He’s racked up 257 yards and has cashed the OVER for his rushing yard prop easily in 4-of-6 games.
Dating back to last season (including playoffs), Allen has rushed for at least 40 yards in nine of his last 11 games. It may not be easy for Allen to pull this off, but the Packers’ defense hasn’t been sharp stopping the run lately.
The Packers rank 23rd in yards per carry allowed (4.8) and 27th in total rushing yards allowed per game (139.6). Green Bay has been fairly solid against opposing passers, limiting QBs to only 168.9 pass yards per game (ranked first) so Allen may need to take matters into his own hands to move the chains.
Dameon Pierce
Over 2.5 Receptions (-105, BetMGM)
We hit this prop back in Week 5 when the line was plus money, and although it’s moved to -105, I still like it. We’re taking rookie running back Dameon Pierce to get three catches as he continues his ascension in the NFL RB hierarchy.
Since Week 4, Pierce has asserted himself as the every-down back for Houston. Backup Rex Burkhead’s snap counts have decreased each week and it shouldn’t be a coincidence that Pierce’s offensive stats have exploded.
Through the first three games, Pierce had four catches on four targets. The three games following, he’s got 13 catches on over triple the targets (15) and had three or more receptions in each game.
Now, Pierce faces the Titans. They are bottom five in terms of allowing receptions to running backs (41 in six games) and a team Houston played well against last season.
Matthew Stafford
To Throw Interception (-130, bet365)
Seven QBs have plus odds to throw an interception in Week 7, including Aaron Rodgers, Josh Allen and Dak Prescott.
While those three have been hit or miss this season with turnovers, I’m going back to ol’ faithful and lay the juice on my INT cash cow. We’re taking another crack on Matthew Stafford to throw a pick at -130.
Stafford, the third-most profitable QB to throw an interception at +3.3U through six games, just hasn’t fared well this season, dealing with nagging injuries that have thrown off his timing. He’s thrown a pick in all but one game, including against the 49ers in Week 4.
In fact, since joining the Rams in 2021, Stafford’s interceptions are starting to become comical and routine. He’s thrown one in nine of his last 10 home games (including playoffs). The Niners also seem to have his rhythm down because they’ve made Stafford turn the ball over through the air in each game.
Normally, I’d be iffy on betting an INT prop at this price, but when it comes to Stafford, it’s not about if he’ll throw an interception, it’s when.
