The NFL Week 8 games feature a lot more perceived mismatches compared to other weeks so far. We have four different teams favored by nine or more points, and nearly half the games feature a spread of six or more points. For the entire 2024 season to date, we've only had only six teams favored by at least nine points.
In this article, we’ll dive into key strategies for making your NFL Week 8 picks—whether you’re locking in a survivor pool selection, assigning confidence points, or hunting for upset picks to boost your chances in weekly NFL contests.
At PoolGenius, we specialize in identifying top-value opportunities. We provide you with the tools to maximize your chances of success in NFL survivor pools, office pools, and football pick'em contests.
NFL Week 8 Survivor Picks: Lots of Options
The 2024 NFL Survivor season began in a state of chaos, with major upsets wiping out over 98 percent of survivor pool entries within just five weeks. However, the last two weeks have provided more clarity. Teams like Washington and Denver have delivered some unexpected upside, while others, including Carolina, Cleveland, Las Vegas, New England, and Tennessee, have established themselves as the "have-nots" — struggling teams that consistently fall short.
Over the last two weeks, a lot of those have-nots, and other teams that are dealing with notable injuries in the short term, have taken a beating as underdogs. Teams favored by more than a field goal have gone a perfect 16-0 the last two weeks, while nearly every survivor pool pick survived.
That leads us to Week 8, where there are a lot of options. We think we know the haves and have-nots, and there are seven different teams favored by six or more points this week. (On average, we had 3.8 such teams as options in previous weeks this year). We are getting comfortable with these characters, and we think we know who will make it through this survivor movie.
Detroit (-11) leads the way in popularity as the biggest favorite, drawing 35 percent of public picks. Denver (-9), getting Carolina at home, is rising in popularity, already moving up to 21 percent popularity and climbing over the last 24 hours.
Of course, in a week with so many other options, those two popular teams will see their Expected Value go down as their popularity goes up.
You have Kansas City (-10), who has the best Expected Value (at only six percent popularity), but the Chiefs project to have a very high Expected Value whenever you decide to use them over the next month or more. So the decision on the Chiefs will continue to come down to “are my other options better now, or in the upcoming weeks?”
Other options, like Baltimore (at Cleveland), the New York Jets (at New England), the Los Angeles Chargers (vs. the New Orleans Saints with Spencer Rattler at QB), and Pittsburgh (vs. the New York Giants), also show up as teams worth considering.
Check out our NFL Survivor Picks to see which teams we think are the best options for different pool types for Week 8 in your pool.
NFL Week 8 Pick'em Strategy: Injuries Create Value Opportunities
Some key injury news is creating value opportunities in several games in Week 8.
In the Bears vs. Commanders matchup, the Bears are currently the favorite, as Washington QB Jayden Daniels’ status is still up in the air, after suffering rib injuries and leaving last week’s game. The public is still picking the 5-2 Commanders more often, 63 percent of the time in game winner pools. If Daniels does not play, we would expect Chicago to close as the favorite (currently Chicago -1.5), providing a value opportunity where you can take the betting favorite and be on the opposite side from the majority of entries.
That is not the only case this week where that opportunity could materialize, based on injury news.
In Tampa Bay vs. Atlanta, the Falcons are now the favorite, after all the devastating injury news out of Tampa from Monday Night Football. The Buccaneers will be without both starting wide receivers, as Chris Godwin was lost for the year and Mike Evans will miss multiple weeks.
The public is a little more split in this one, but right now, Tampa Bay is drawing 48 percent of game winner picks.
Finally, some injury news the other way could provide value. Miami QB Tua Tagovailoa is expected to return this week, and Miami is favored by three points over Arizona. But the public is again split here, taking Arizona a little more than half the time, with a segment likely focusing on Miami’s recent form and poor 2-4 record.
Injury news can be fluid, and some of those potential value opportunities could shift if the expected injury situation changes, so pool players should check the latest news before finalizing picks.
Check out our Football Pick’em Picks product for the latest odds and numbers, and specific recommendations for which other value picks make sense based on public popularity and the specifics of your pool.
Get Expert Football Pool Picks In 2024
Maximizing your chances of winning NFL survivor and football pick'em pools comes down to consistently stacking the odds in your favor. The challenge, however, is navigating through the massive amounts of data and complex calculations involved—something most players don’t have the time, expertise, or interest to handle.
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