Our Action Network Luck Rankings are out for Week 8.
As a quick recap, the unlucky team from the Action Network Luck Rankings is 103-60-6 (62.7%) against the closing spread (ATS) since the start of 2018 if the unlucky team in a matchup meets at least one of the following two criteria:
- Is at least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings
- Has a luck percentage at least 50% worse than their opponent
Unlucky teams in Luck Matchups are 7-6-2 ATS on the year after the Cleveland Browns failed to cover against the Indianapolis Colts in Week 7. There is one game that meets our Luck Matchup criteria in Week 8.
We've updated the Luck Totals thresholds as we've found some new trends.
- A Luck Total above 10 after Week 3.
- A Luck Total above 5 after Week 11.
- A Luck Total below -5 after Week 2.
Luck Totals below -5 went 3-0 to the under last week, are 15-7 (68%) to the under this year, and 109-73-2 (60%) over the last six years. Overall, Luck Totals meeting any of the criteria are 152-95-3 (61.4%) since 2018.
There are five games this week that meet the Luck Total criteria. Let's dive in.
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NFL Luck Ranking Games for Week 8
Bengals vs. 49ers
The 49ers come into this one ranked 28th in our Luck Rankings, while Cincinnati has been the second-luckiest team this season, giving this game a Luck Difference of 26. Unlucky teams in games with a Luck Difference between 24 and 27 taking place in Week 8 or later are 22-13-3 ATS over the last six years.
In addition to the season-long luck ranking differences, the 49ers were the second-unluckiest team of Week 7, while the Bengals were the second-luckiest team in the last game they played in Week 6.
With both recent and year-long luck against the 49ers, this could be a spot where both the public and betting market are undervaluing San Francisco.
This game is 49ers -5 at bet365, which is great because the rest of the odds board has it at -5.5 after news that Brock Purdy cleared concussion protocol came down on Saturday.
Bears vs. Chargers
The Luck Total of -7.8 between the Chargers and Bears is the lowest Luck Total of Week 8. As mentioned above, games with Luck Totals below -5 are 109-73-2 to the under including 15-7 this year.
Luck Unders are just 1-3 this year in games involving the Bears and 1-0 in Chargers games. In addition, Luck Unders in Weeks 7-9 are 23-12-1, making the middle of the season a great time to attack this trend.
bet365 has the Sunday Night Football total at 46.5, as of Saturday at 4:15 p.m. ET.
Eagles vs. Commanders
With a Luck Total of -7.0, this game also meets the under criteria between these two division rivals.
That's an important distinction because when teams meet at least twice in a year (including the playoffs), Luck Unders are just 21-17 (55.3%) in these first meetings when the Luck Total is -5 or lower. However, in the second meeting, unders are 17-8 (68%) when meeting the under criteria.
These two teams had a Luck Total of -6.5 in their first meeting this year with the game sailing over by 22 points. However, history shows unders are more likely in this situation the second time around.
This total is 43.5 at bet365, as of Saturday afternoon.
Patriots vs. Dolphins
In another repeat matchup, the Patriots and Dolphins have a Luck Total of -6.7.
These two teams met in Week 2, before the Luck Total criteria kicked in. In that game they played to 41 total points, hitting the under. That said, since this is their second meeting, they do fit the 17-8 trend that we talked about in the Commanders-Eagles game.
This total was at 47 at bet365 on Saturday afternoon. Here's a more thorough breakdown of why one expert's first Week 8 bet was this under.
Chiefs vs. Broncos
Stop me if you've heard this before: these teams are meeting for the second time this year.
In our third repeat divisional Luck Under matchup, we have two teams that met just two weeks ago in a game that had a Luck Total of -13.8 and played to a 19-8 scoreline, coming in 20.5 points under the total.
In no small part thanks to that significant under from that game, the Luck Total in this one is only -5.8, but that still meets the threshold for a Luck Under.
Also, there's possible snow in the forecast, which could play to the infamous "snowver." But overall, this is another spot where the under has plenty going for it thanks to the luck angle.
bet365 had 46 as the total as of 4:20 p.m. ET on Saturday.
Saints vs. Colts
We have a battle of two indoor teams in this interesting matchup. Indoor games meeting the under criteria are 21-13 (61.8%) to the under over the last six years.
The Luck Total is just -5.2, which is the closest to the -5 threshold of the five Luck Unders this week. However, that's not necessarily a bad thing for the under. Games with a Luck Total between -5 and -6 are 21-14 (60%) to the under. Games with a Luck Total between -5 and -5.25 are 10-3 to the under.
The total for this game on Saturday afternoon was 43.5 at bet365.
