Every week during the 2023-24 NFL season, I'll be sharing my favorite picks against the spread (ATS) and bets for every Sunday slate in my NFL predictions today.
For reference, my season-long record in this file sits at 14-10 (58.3%) for +3.1 units. For my best expert picks against the spread in Week 8, I'm rolling with a trio of divisional underdogs, starting with a pair in the early slate.
NFL Week 8 Predictions: 3 Best Picks Against Spread
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 1:00 p.m. | |
  | 1 p.m. | |
  | 4:25 p.m. |
Before I dive into my favorite sides, for what it's worth, my favorite total on the board is the Panthers-Texans over 43.5.
Carolina head coach Frank Reich recently handed over play-calling duties to Thomas Brown, who comes from the Sean McVay coaching tree. Not surprisingly, he likes to use tempo, which the Panthers showed plenty of during their last game against the Dolphins with the highest no-huddle rate of Week 6. I expect that to continue moving forward for a team that had been one of the slowest in the NFL.
Both teams should also benefit immensely from the bye week with new coaching staffs and rookie quarterbacks. For reference, games featuring rookie quarterbacks have gone over the total at approximately a 60% clip following a bye week over the past 25 seasons. With Houston already playing at one of the league's highest tempos, expect both teams to operate with pace throughout in what could turn into a sneaky shootout.
Now, onto my Week 8 sides.
NFL Predictions | Week 8
This is my favorite buy-low/sell-high spot of the week. The Vikings will hit the road on a short week coming off their biggest win of the season to face a desperate Packers squad that returns to Lambeau Field after two straight road losses with a bye week in between.
Minnesota undoubtedly looked impressive against the 49ers, but I think that game had more to do with San Francisco's injuries and mistakes than anything else. The Vikings still finished the game with a net success rate of -14% after allowing a Week 7 high 56.9% Success Rate. Kirk Cousins basically just beat San Francisco with explosive passing plays, which isn't a sustainable approach on a weekly basis.
Plus, Vikings star wide receiver Justin Jefferson is still unavailable, which could spell trouble against a Green Bay defense that should have star CB Jaire Alexander back on the outside. Alexander can neutralize Jordan Addison, which will force Cousins to rely on some questionable options on the outside since Minnesota basically isn't even trying to run the ball this season.
The Vikings are the only team in the league to average fewer than 20 rush attempts per game and rank 20th in EPA per Rush. That's not a winning formula against a run-funnel Green Bay defense that ranks 25th and 26th in Rush Success Rate and Rush EPA.
New Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores has done a commendable job getting the most out of the hand he was dealt by blitzing at a league-high rate of 58%. To put that number into perspective, the next-highest team sits at 42%.
Flores has also focused on minimizing explosive plays, as the Vikings have also run drop-8 at a clip that doubles the next-highest team. He's essentially trying to generate pressure for a team that can't really generate any naturally, while also making opponents methodically work their way down the field without making a mistake.
This is a pretty good matchup for what the Packers want to do offensively. For whatever reason, they aren't taking enough deep shots and running too frequently on early downs. Well, that's exactly how you move the ball on Minnesota. Also, it's only a tiny sample size, but the inexperienced Jordan Love has actually fared pretty well against the blitz so far this season.
The Packers have been a disappointment, but I don't think they've been as bad as some may believe. They have three losses by a combined seven points and they led in the fourth quarter in three of their four losses. Jordan Love has played inconsistently as you'd expect in his first year as a starter, but he's also had to deal with an abundance of injuries across the entire offense.
Believe it or not, Green Bay's offense actually ranks No. 1 in the NFL in EPA per play and No. 2 in Success Rate after halftime in 2023. There's something there.
The slow starts are concerning, but I expect a better effort out of the gates at home in a very good spot against a Vikings team coming off a short week and riding high following a big upset win over the 49ers. I really like the Packers with a line that's similar to what they faced last month against the Lions.
Trending: Matt LaFleur is 16-7 ATS (69.6%) as an underdog, covering by over a field goal per game.
Speaking of coming a long way on a line, the Patriots closed as a two-point home underdog against this same Dolphins team earlier in the season in a game they had a chance to tie late.
This is a major adjustment, especially when you consider all of the injuries Miami is dealing with in the secondary and especially on offense. The starting left side of the offensive line (Isaiah Wynn and Terron Armstead) just landed on injured reserve, while starting center Connor Williams is also dealing with an injury. To add salt in the wound, star rookie running back De'Von Achane remains on IR, while WRs Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle also have nagging injuries.
In fairness, the Patriots were quite a mess following that Miami game. However, they certainly had every bounce go against them, so things weren't as bad as they appeared. For example, they have lost five of their seven fumbles this season. In comparison, the Dolphins have recovered a ridiculous nine of 12.
Plus, New England has played one of the 10 toughest schedules to date in the NFL, while Miami has played one of the five easiest with two of their wins coming against bad Giants and Panthers teams decimated by injuries. On the season, Miami's five victories have come against teams with a combined 8-25 record (24.2%). Meanwhile, the Patriots only have two victories on the season against opponents with the same (8) number of wins.
Most importantly, New England's offense finally looked competent last week in an outright upset win over Buffalo. Why was that the case? Well, it starts with the offensive line, which had dealt with numerous injuries all season, forcing horrendous below-replacement-level players into the starting rotation. The Patriots simply couldn't block anybody up front, which caused the run game to crater and made Mac Jones completely useless with his lack of mobility and flawed footwork when under pressure.
Well, last week, the Patriots finally got a healthy Cole Strange back at guard and kicked Mike Onwenu out to right tackle, which kept the likes of Vederian Lowe, Calvin Anderson, and Antonio Mafi on the sidelines. Per PFF, all three grade out in the bottom 20 in pass blocking among 199 offensive linemen with at least 100 snaps. I can't stress enough how much getting those three out of the rotation improves the outlook for this offense.
The Patriots can actually run the ball efficiently now, which makes the play-action game much more productive. Mac Jones, who actually had time to work through his progressions, went 6/8 for 95 yards with play action against Buffalo. To provide numbers behind the offensive improvement, New England finished with a 50% rushing success rate and Jones was only hit twice (for one sack) on a significantly improved 21.9% pressure rate.
Speaking of pressure rate, the Patriots defense also made some adjustments that led to 18 hurries and a 43% pressure rate of Josh Allen. Their defense is also finally getting healthier after being decimated by injuries. Plus, they already showed they can slow down this Dolphins offense, holding them to just 24 points by playing a lot of three-safety looks to take away explosive plays.
The forecast calls for heavy winds, which not only favor the under and sizable 'dog but also won't hurt the Patriots' heavy-rush and short-passing-attack offense. New England has also struggled immensely on special teams, but so have the Dolphins.
Ultimately, this is just too many points for a much more competent Patriots offense and healthier defense against a Miami team trending the other way in the injury department.
Trending: Divisional dogs catching eight or more points with a total of 48 or less have gone 188-149-8 (55.8%) ATS over the past 20 seasons, per Action Labs.
This looks like a good spot to fade the Chiefs, who tend to play around with their food in these spots as sizable favorites. Under Andy Reid, Kansas City doesn't usually unload the full arsenal against inferior teams, which makes logical sense. And if there was ever a spot to mess around, it would be this Sunday in the Mile High City. K.C. has the Dolphins and Eagles next.
Denver enters what it basically its Super Bowl playing better football of late. The offensive line is starting to find its footing in a new scheme, while Javonte Williams finally looks 100% healthy since coming back from injury. I'm assuming Sean Payton will go with a heavy dose of Williams in the run game against a vulnerable Kansas City rush defense in freezing conditions to set up a few well-timed deep shots off play-action.
More importantly, defensive coordinator Vance Joseph woke up from his 1 1/2-month slumber and finally implemented some much-needed defensive changes. After trending toward a historically bad season, Denver has held each of its past two opponents to 19 points — almost half of what it gave up over the first five games. Those splits are obviously skewed by Miami's 70-point outburst but even if you remove that game, the Broncos still allowed a hair under 28 points against the offenses of the Jets, Bears, Commanders and Raiders.
So, what has changed? In addition to a few schematic changes, they finally benched Demarri Mathis, who had been the worst cornerback in the league by almost any metric. They replaced him with veteran Fabian Moreau, who is at least serviceable in a very important role opposite Patrick Surtain, who teams basically avoid throwing near.
The Broncos are also getting healthier in the middle with a pair of starters returning from injury in linebacker Baron Browning and nose tackle D.J. Jones, who both missed the first matchup between these teams in Kansas City. Meanwhile, the Chiefs won't have stud linebacker Nick Bolton, who had a huge outing in that first meeting.
This is just too many points for an improving home pup against a potentially flat Chiefs club that is still working out some kinks on offense in a classic sandwich spot.
Trending: In his career, Patrick Mahomes has gone just 15-20-1 ATS (42.9%) as a favorite of more than a touchdown, including 2-9 (18.2%) on the road (1-5 in the division).
