NFL Week 8 brings us a full slate of games, which means a jam-packed Sunday for our NFL predictions
There are no bye weeks, so every team is in action. With no early London games and no Monday double header, I have a full 14-game Sunday slate to pick from.
But that doesn't mean we're going to get great games. Ten of the 14 Sunday games have a favorite over a field goal, with six favorites of at least a touchdown and three by double digits. We're starting to separate the wheat from the chaff, and the teams at the bottom seem worse than usual.
With so many big favorites, it can be tempting to go big game hunting. Sometimes the best way to play a big favorite is by coming up with a proxy for the team win that pays out at a better price and avoids a high line.
I'm playing a trio of ugly running backs I don't believe in this week as volume plays for three big favorites I expect to win, and we're also playing a mineshaft under and a super escalator over. Let's dive in.
NFL Predictions, Picks — Week 8
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Ravens vs. Browns
Somehow, the worst DVOA offense in the league against the best one is my top play of the week. That's just it, though — I don't think these current Browns are the league's worst offense, nor anything close.
At last, our long national Deshaun Watson nightmare is over. Jameis Winston gets the start, and should finally bring an air of competence to an offense that's badly lacked it. Winston will attack aggressively downfield, something that worked well with Joe Flacco last season, and that's a specific weak spot on this Ravens defense that's allowed explosive passing plays all season.
But it's not just Jameis. The Browns also announced a change at playcaller, with Ken Dorsey finally taking over the duty. This is what I was hoping for before the season when I bet the Browns as a division long shot (RIP). Dorsey has been an excellent playcaller, and his style should fit with Winston.
Cleveland is also getting its offensive line healthy, much more than the start of the season, and now star G Wyatt Turner is back too. And though he's not quite himself yet, star RB Nick Chubb is back too.
Cleveland's entire offense should be improved, and better offense makes life much easier on this defense that was so good a year ago and has quietly rounded into form some in recent weeks.
All those adjustments move the Browns from my No. 26 to my No. 19 offense and from 26th to 13th overall in my team rankings. It effectively means the Browns aren't the Browns anymore but something more like the Steelers, Chargers, or even Vikings now without Christian Darrisaw.
That means this team is badly mispriced in the market.
These rivals hate each other, and the rivalry is typically close. The teams have split the season series in five of the last six seasons, and five of the last seven matchups finished within six points. The Browns seem awful so far, but even the bad version has losses by four, four, six and seven points. They're not good but they're hanging around, enough to cover this line even before the offensive improvements.
This is a classic buy-low-sell-high spot. Teams like the Ravens that have scored 25+ in five straight are 42% ATS over the past two decades, while underdogs that have scored 16 or less in three straight are 61% ATS since 2019. Lamar Jackson is 42% ATS as more than a field goal favorite, while Jameis Winston is 66% ATS as an underdog of more than a field goal.
This line ballooned to as high as Browns +11.5 early in the week when we first talked about buying Cleveland stock on the Tuesday roundtable podcast. I played at +9.5 and it's still playable to +8.5 without much loss. I'll also sprinkle the moneyline at +350. Sounds crazy, but the Ravens did already lose to the Raiders.
This is also a great opportunity to buy low on Browns futures with a win total at 3.5. This game is basically a free roll, and the upcoming schedule comes against the Chargers, Saints, Steelers, Broncos, and Steelers again. Those are all pretty similar opponents and likely mean ugly, low-scoring games the Browns can win. That over-3.5 is a nice Cleveland escalator if you believe in the changes.
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Eagles vs. Bengals
This total has bounced around. It was 49.5 before Sunday's games, then 46.5 Sunday night after a couple of ugly games from these teams, but now it's ticked back up to 48 and past the most important key number of 47. I love the under.
Neither defense has been much good this season, but each unit is starting to find some answers. Vic Fangio and Lou Anarumo are too good at what they do to not find at least a few answers along the way. At the same time, both offenses are trending in the wrong direction after nice September moments.
The Bengals want to pass, but Philadelphia's pass defense has been much better lately. The Eagles want to run and may well be able to, but a good Eagles running game or a Philadelphia lead only helps an under with a fast clock. And don't forget the key loss of Philly LT Jordan Mailata against Trey Hendrickson, a big problem since Jalen Hurts continues to be so awful under pressure.
I lean Eagles in this game but don't need a side because I don't trust either offense to finish drives right now, and that means so many different avenues for this to go under since either team can disappoint.
Eagles games have averaged just 33.5 points since the bye, and Bengals games are even lower at 29.5 the last two after almost 65 a game the previous four.
And then there's Nick Sirianni's home-road splits. At home in Philadelphia, Sirianni's Eagles are 71% to the over. On the road, though, they're 18-11 to the under (62%), a stark split. This season Eagles road games average 11 points per game less than at home, and just look at some of the totals in Philly road games since just the start of last season: 27, 31, 34, 37, 37, 37 and 41.
This game could be ugly with both offenses struggling to find rhythm. I'll touch the under 41.5 too at +205 (bet365), staying above those 40 and 41 key numbers. Eagles games have finished at 43 or below four times already, with Bengals games at 35 or below three times.
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Packers vs. Jaguars Parlay: Romeo Doubs & Jordan Love
There's a lot of support for the Jaguars this week, like usual this season, and I don't get it. Jacksonville returns from two weeks in London without any bye week to rest or readjust to the jet lag, an absolutely terrible scheduling spot. Teams returning from London without a bye have tied or trailed in 13 of 15 fourth quarters, and they trend toward their team total over while opponents trend over.
I'm staying away from a side because I don't fully know what to expect from this Jags offense against an unstable Packers defense right now, but I'm happy to invest in the Packers offense. Green Bay has a top-five offense and the Jaguars rank dead last defensively by DVOA, including last against the pass.
Jordan Love should eat, and he's been eating well this season. He's thrown two, two, three, four, and four TD passes in starts this season, the same number the Jaguars have allowed the last five games. That's three TD passes a game, a huge number even in the modern game. I like Love to throw three touchdowns at +195 (FanDuel), something he's done in 60% of his starts this season.
Jacksonville plays more man coverage than any team in the league. Love is No. 1 by EPA per play against zone but more erratic versus man, but he still ranks top three in explosive play rate against man coverage. Love can attack this weak secondary and make them pay, even if he makes a few mistakes along the way.
And it may not be to his usual target Jayden Reed, by far the best Packers zone beater. Instead, I'm playing Romeo Doubs, Green Bay's best WR in man coverage. I like Doubs to go over 44.5 yards, something he's done in four of six games with an average of 52 yards per game. He leads the team in target and air-yard share since returning from his suspension, and he's tops in route-win rate and YPR against man.
Doubs had two TDs in his first game back from suspension two weeks ago, and he's proven a reliable TD target for Love with eight TD catches last season. I'll parlay that Doubs over 45.5 yards with a TD at +290 (Caesars) as a mini escalator.
But we're just getting started. Remember that kids book If You Give a Mouse a Cookie? If Love throws three touchdowns, Doubs should catch one of them. But if that all happens, there's a pretty good chance the Packers win the game too. And what if Love throws a fourth TD against this terrible pass defense, like he has twice already this season? A Packers win is even more likely now, and maybe Doubs catches a second score?
I'll play Love three touchdowns at +195, Doubs over 45.5 yards, and Doubs Over 45.5 and a TD at +290 all separately, but it's also time to build a Packers super escalator at DraftKings. Ready to ride all the way to the top?
- Doubs 50/TD + Love 3 TDs in a Packers win: +1000
- Doubs 50/TD + Love 4 TDs in a Packers win: +2200
- Doubs 2 TDs + Love 4 TDs in a Packers win: +5500
- Doubs 2 TDs + Doubs first TD + Love 4 TDs in a Packers win: +15000
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Jets vs. Patriots Parlay Backing Breece Hall
The Jets are road TD favorites even after a disappointing 2-5 start, but one of those two wins came against these Patriots. New England is in a tough schedule spot coming back from London with no bye week and a rookie QB and head coach. The Jets are still playing for something here and hadn't won in New England before last season since 2006.
New York's run game has been a problem this season, both ways, but New England could be the perfect salvo. The Patriots rank dead last running the football and won't be able to gash this Jets run D like recent opponents have, and the run defense is bottom five too. That's good news against a Jets offense that remains over-committed to a failing run game but might find some life here.
Todd Downing has mostly excised Braelon Allen from the rotation since taking over play-calling duties, just three touches each of the last two games, so that means it's the Breece Hall show now. He's averaging under three yards a carry outside of two long runs this season, but this is a volume play. With a rush attempts line set at 18.5 below only Derrick Henry this week, books are conceding the volume. We just need the yards to come with it.
Six running backs have run for at least 75 yards in the last four Patriots games alone — obviously, more than one per game — and eight different RBs have found the endzone against New England.
I'll bet on Breece Hall to do both, with 75 yards and a TD at +197 in an SGP (Caesars).
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Saints vs. Chargers Parlay Backing J.K. Dobbins
The Saints defense has totally bottomed out. Dennis Allen's unit has been so good for so long but just has little left to give right now with a barrage of injuries, and this defense can barely even tackle these days.
You've heard about the Chargers passing "more" since the bye week but even more passing is still around neutral, and Jim Harbaugh's teams are still going to play Big 10-style football, getting a lead and then milking the clock by running the football. Chargers games have been a dreadful watch, yet to crack 40 points on the season and 6-0 to the under.
So why not just play the under here? Because Saints games are 5-2 to the over — because the Saints defense has been so bad.
With Gus Edwards out, J.K. Dobbins has at least 14 carries in five straight games. Five RBs have had at least 14 carries against the Saints this season, and all five of them ran for at least 80 yards and a TD.
Dobbins is the favorite for Comeback Player of the Year, a bet I still think is pretty silly. Over 30% of his yards this season have come on three long runs, and he's at just 3.1 YPC the last four games. But those games came against four top-10 run defenses, and the Saints now rank second to last in that metric.
I'm not convinced Dobbins or the Chargers are very good, but they're good enough to take care of this reeling Saints team at home. I don't mind a Jets-Chargers teaser, just a moneyline parlay, but I like playing these ugly RB SGPs as a proxy for the win.
Give me Dobbins at 75 yards and a TD in an SGP for +203 (Caesars).
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Panthers vs. Broncos SGP
I guess we just keep on fading the Panthers. Carolina has now allowed at least three first-half touchdowns in every game this season except its one kitchen-sink win back in Week 3, a truly pathetic effort.
But how do we fade Carolina when Denver's anemic offense is involved? Are we sure we want our money on Bo Nix? I don't love investing in the Broncos first half since Denver's had some super slow offensive starts and been more of a second-half team at 6-1 ATS, and I can't play this team as a double-digit favorite when they struggle to even score double digits some weeks.
Instead, it's another ugly RB SGP. Carolina's run defense ranks last in the league by DVOA, plummeting from 21st after just one terrible showing. Denver invested a lot in its line and wants to run and is finally finding some success lately with Javonte Williams.
Williams ran 14 times for 88 yards and two scores in a win last week, and when the Broncos win, he's generally run well. He ran 13 times for 61 yards and 16 times for 77 yards in the previous two wins. Add in a soft Carolina defense and a good chance at a couple red zone opportunities and Williams should be in line for another solid day.
Carolina has already allowed seven RBs to put up 70 yards and a TD, at least one in every game outside of its win. Williams is the bell cow for Denver, for better or worse.
Give me Javonte's traditional yards over at 61.5, plus an Anytime TD, at +185 on an SGP (Caesars).
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NFL Week 9 Lookahead Pick
Obviously, the big question here is Jayden Daniels. It looks like he'll miss this Sunday's start against the Bears, but he was a question mark each day along the way and that should put him on track to play next week, especially in a division game against a rival.
I think this line is trying to split the difference on whether or not Daniels plays. A fully healthy Daniels would likely make this Commanders by over a touchdown.
These teams did play already and you could argue the Giants should've won if they just had a healthy kicker, but the Commanders were also the much better team overall and have been far better this season. The Giants are also worse now without stud LT Andrew Thomas, leaving the offensive line in shambles and likely worst in the league. As bad as Washington's defense is, the Giants aren't equipped to take advantage.
Washington's offensive line, on the other hand, is one of the biggest surprise units in the league. The team went out and signed a mishmash of veterans like Sam Cosmi, Tyler Biadasz, and Nick Allegretti and has seen them pay off in a huge way. Washington's had a terrific interior line, huge against Dexter Lawrence, and probably a top-10 line overall.
The Giants come off a short week here after a physical battle against the Steelers as big underdogs on Monday night. I'm grabbing Washington -2.5 below the key number while it's available.
Monday pick, adding on to last week's lookahead with alt unders.
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