Betting on NFL quarterback ineptitude is one of my guilty pleasures. Especially when they throw a back-breaking interception that completely flips the momentum of the game.
That’s why for the 2023 NFL season, I’m going to dive headfirst into the Quarterback Interception Market to identify key spots each week to cash in on the QB incompetency.
It’s worth noting that I track all interception props from each quarterback and it’s been a huge windfall for bettors who choose to only bet on them when they are plus-money (+100 or higher). So far in 2023, had you bet on every quarterback that was plus money to throw an interception, you would’ve gone 53-39 for +20.8 units so far.
This is also off of last season’s momentum when the same trend went 81-75 for +24.5 units. We can thank someone like Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott for a lot of those winnings as he finished 2022 at +8.6 units for INT props (league leader) and threw an interception in five of six games when he was listed at plus-money.
Here are two quarterbacks I’m betting to throw an interception in Week 8, both with plus-money odds.
NFL Prop Picks
In the table below, you'll find each of our NFL staff's top player prop picks from today's slate of games. Click on any pick or team logo to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Texans vs. Panthers
C.J. Stroud
To Throw Interception (+150)
Although he’s only thrown one interception through six games, this could be a classic rookie game for Stroud.
The betting favorite to be the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year, Stroud has looked fantastic in some stretches and a bit inept in others. For example, did you know Stroud leads the NFL in Bad Throw rate at 23.2%? Or that amongst all QBs that have thrown a minimum of 100 passes, he ranks 26th in passes on target at 71.2%?
Stroud has been quite lucky to only throw one INT this season, but that’s why we like him in this spot, especially since he ranks seventh in pass attempts per game but 29th in the NFL in completion percentage (59.8%).
The Panthers defense has been Swiss cheese for most of the season, especially on the ground. However, this unit has held its own when defending the pass, ranking ninth in passing yards allowed per game and has forced an interception from the opposing QB in each home game.
With the Panthers defense rested and having six games of tape to review and prepare, I expect Stroud to get INT No. 2 in Carolina.
Pick: C.J. Stroud To Throw Interception (+150)
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Browns vs. Seahawks
Geno Smith
To Throw Interception (+105)
After throwing two interceptions on the road in Cincinnati and another at home vs the Cardinals, we have to go back to Smith for an interception in Week 8 hosting the Cleveland Browns.
This Browns defense is no joke. Yes, it gave up 38 points to Gardner Minshew and the Colts, but some of that was bad luck. Cleveland still forced Minshew into an interception along with two strip sacks.
The Browns have the No. 1 pass defense in the NFL with only 149 passing yards allowed per game, have a top-10 blitz rate and lead the NFL in QB knockdown rate at 15.3% per dropback. They’re also fifth in overall pressure rate. The Browns defensive line is going to get into Smith face and force him to make some potentially bad decisions.
Speaking of Smith, he was first in the NFL as the most-pressured QB prior to Week 7 and now is fourth. Although the Seahawks offensive line is getting a little healthier, Smith likely can’t rely too much on RB Kenneth Walker III to lighten the load as the Browns rank in the top five in rush yards allowed per game.
If this wasn’t the Browns coming to town, I’d likely steer clear because we got +180 last week for Smith to throw an INT and now it is down to +120. That said, I’ll trust in the Browns defense to make another QB look foolish.
