Every week of the 2023 NFL season, we’ll recap how Action Network's NFL Luck Rankings fared and take a look at some of the unluckiest results in our new NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
There were no luck ranking matchups for Week 9, so the records remain the same. Unlucky teams meeting our luck criteria are 7-7-2 ATS in 2023 and 106-61-6 overall since 2018 in luck-based matchups.
We can also use Expected Scores, which power the Luck Rankings, to look at bad beats. We’re discussing bad beats not in terms of a win or loss, but in terms of win probability swing. so be sure to check out the math behind the NFL Bad Beat Rankings.
For a quick synopsis, we're looking at Expected Scores and comparing them to Actual Scores. We're not saying the team that suffered the bad beat should have won, just that the scoreline was unflattering compared to their expected performance given the game situations encountered.
Here's a look at which teams were unluckiest in Week 9 the Monday Night Football game between the Los Angeles Chargers and New York Jets.
NFL Bad Beats: Week 9
Win probability swings indicate the difference in win percentage between how teams actually performed vs. how the final score indicates they performed.
1. Miami Dolphins(+1.5)
- Actual Result: Chiefs 21, Dolphins 14
- Expected Score: Dolphins 2o, Chiefs 16
- Swing: 11 points, 36.3% win probability
The Dolphins were trailing 14-0 and were driving the ball down the field when disaster struck. With 48 seconds remaining in the first half, they attempted a swing pass to Tyreek Hill on a second-and-6, which was fumbled, picked up by Trent McDuffie and then handed off to Bryan Cook, who returned it 59 yards for a Chiefs touchdown.
The Dolphins battled back in the second half by converting two drives into touchdowns and had 1st-and-10 at the Chiefs' 38-yard line, looking for more with 5:57 remaining in the game. The sequence from there went -6-yard run, -6-yard sack and another sack for -11 yards. Facing a fourth-and-27, the Dolphins were forced to punt.
They got the ball back still trailing by seven points with 2:27 remaining and drove down the field into Chiefs territory, again. A 1st-and-10 from the Chiefs' 31-yard line turned into three straight incompletions.
Facing a critical fourth down, the Dolphins used their second timeout. Tua Tagovailoa then fumbled at the 31-yard line and the game was over, as they only had one timeout to stop the clock on the ensuing Chiefs possession.
This game deserved to be closer with the Dolphins having a slight edge in yards, first downs and Explosive Play Rate (8.6% to 7.4%). The Chiefs won the Success Rate battle (43.4% to 41.4%).
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2. Carolina Panthers (+1.5)
- Actual Result: Colts 27, Panthers 13
- Expected Score: Colts 15, Panthers 14
- Swing: 15 points, 33% win probability
While the spread was nearly a pick-em, our expected score had the Panthers covering in this game.
The Colts built a 10-0 lead after four straight punts to start the game for the Panthers. They worked a drive at the end of the second half down the field and had 1st-and-10 from midfield, with 31 seconds remaining and two timeouts. Bryce Young then threw a pick-six to Kenny Moore II to go down 20-3 at the half.
Down only 10 points with under two minutes left in the third quarter, the Panthers had a second-and-8 from the Colts' 34-yard line. On an attempted screen pass, Young overthrew running back Miles Sanders for Moore's second pick-six of the day.
Bryce Young had one of the lowest Bad Ball Rates in the NFL coming into the week, which is why he had only thrown four interceptions (which was still 0.5 interceptions above expectation).
Meanwhile, the Colts had a bottom-eight Bad Ball Rate forced on defense coming in and had been about 0.5 interceptions above expectation with their six interceptions prior to this game. These two pick-sixes were extremely fortunate given each team's tendencies in regards to interceptions.
3. Dallas Cowboys (+3)
- Actual Result: Eagles 28, Cowboys 23
- Expected Score: Cowboys 29, Eagles 21
- Swing: 13 points, 31.0% win probability
Like the Dolphins, the Cowboys were expected to win this game outright had they not incurred some bad luck. Just about all of the significant plays occurred in the fourth quarter.
After an unnecessary roughness call on the Eagles, the Cowboys had a first-and-goal from the seven-yard line with 11:38 remaining. Facing a fourth-and-goal from the one-yard line, it appeared the Cowboys had scored a touchdown to take the lead.
The call was then overturned as Luke Schoonmaker's knee was down with the ball mere inches from crossing the plane. If not seven, we are expecting at least some points on this drive. Instead, it ended in none.
The Cowboys did get the ball back, drove down the field and scored a touchdown with 6:23 left in the game. They were forced to go for the two-point conversion to make it a three-point game.
Cowboys bettors might want to turn away now. Prescott scrambled left to get the two points, but upon review, the call was reversed once again because his right foot stepped out of bounds.
After the defense forced another three-and-out, the Cowboys drove into Eagles territory again. They had a first-and-10 from the Eagles' 31-yard line, but because of the failed two-point conversion, they needed a touchdown (or so they thought). A failed fourth-down conversion gave the ball back to the Eagles.
The Cowboys defense, once again, forced a three-and-out. They moved the ball 80 yards in just 19 seconds and had a first-and-goal from the six-yard line. A false start, sack, incomplete pass and delay of game later, they still had a chance. Prescott found CeeDee Lamb at the two-yard line, but the Eagles made the tackle and the game was over.
Dallas out-gained Philly 406-292, including by nearly a full yard per play (5.8 to 4.9). Dallas, at the maximum point of each of the last two drives, was expected to score eight points from those two drives and came away with zero.
