Week 8 in the NFL brought some revenge from home teams and overs, both having their best weeks of the year. Let's see what Week 9 will bring.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats, and notes you need to know. Here's Week 9 of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats, and trends are updated as of Wednesday, Oct. 30, at 8 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Something Is Off
Jets Favored vs. Texans
We may see the Jets close as favorites this week vs. Texans. In a team's 9th game or later, this could be just the 7th time since 1990 a team with a win pct 50+ pct pts lower is listed as a favorite.
The previous six teams listed as the favorite in that spot went 6-0 SU and 4-0-2 ATS.
Also worth noting, the Jets and Giants are now a combined 4-33 straight-up playing at night in prime time since 2019.
AFC Least
Division Struggles
Here is how divisions have performed ATS this year vs. teams outside their division.
The best? NFC North at 18-7 ATS, AFC West at 14-6 ATS
The worst? AFC East at 5-15-1 ATS, NFC South at 6-14 ATS
The AFC East’s 5-15-1 ATS mark through 8 weeks is the 2nd-worst in the Wild Card era (since 1990), ahead of just the AFC Central in 2000 at 3-10 ATS.
Best vs. Best
LaFleur & Campbell
The Packers are 2-1 SU/ATS as dogs this season. Matt LaFleur is 24-11 ATS (69%) as an underdog, the best percentage for any coach in the Super Bowl era. LaFleur is also 20-15 SU as a dog (+$1,695 on $100 bet).
In the regular season, Dan Campbell is 45-25 ATS (64%) as coach of the Dolphins and Lions. That 64% win pct is the best for any head coach with a minimum 20 games in the Super Bowl era.
The Lions are 41-17 ATS (70.7%) in the regular season over the past four years — the best three-year ATS stretch since 2016-18 NE and, as of now, the best four-year ATS stretch for any team in the Wild Card era since 1990.
Big Dog For You
Cashing Outright
Big underdogs are barking so far this season.
Dogs of +200 or higher: 15-24 SU (+$1,556), 23-14-2 ATS
Dogs of +250 or higher: 9-11 SU (+$1,557), 12-7-1 ATS
The 15 SU wins by dogs of +200 or higher is T-most through 8 weeks in the last 20 years.
Off 8 Mile
Impact After Facing Lions
Teams after facing the Lions are 0-6 SU/ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 19.3 PPG and 14-25 ATS over the last three seasons – the least profitable previous opponent ATS in the NFL. Top 3: DET, HOU, SF
Public Strikes Back
Turn Around
The betting public (51%+ of tickets) are 57-59-3 ATS (49%) this season, with a $100 bettor down $711. We’ve seen a turn in the last three weeks.
Public by week:
Weeks 6-8: 29-13-1 ATS, 69% (Teams with 66%+ tickets are 21-6-1 ATS)
Weeks 1-5: 48-69-2 ATS, 41%
First Half Issues
Carolina Slow Starts
The reason for Carolina’s struggles of late have been starting slow. They are 1-14 against the first-half spread in their last 15 games overall, worst mark in the NFL in that span.
Bryce Young has now lost 11 consecutive games against the first-half spread with the Panthers.
Passing Is Down
Still Covering
Passing hasn’t equaled on-field success so far this season. Teams to pass for 200 yards or fewer are 54-50-2 ATS this year. That would be the 3rd-highest ATS win pct over a full season since 1990.
Absolute Zero
Eagles 1Q Woes
A stat that feels impossible. Through seven games, the Eagles haven’t scored a point in the first quarter. They are 0-7 against the first-quarter spread, the only team in the NFL without a 1Q ATS cover this year.
Dating back to last season, the Eagles haven’t scored a point in the 1Q in 9 straight games. The last game they did was against the Cardinals – a 12-yard TD pass from Jalen Hurts to Julio Jones.
Two Sides
Good and the Bad
This season, Caleb Williams is 7-0 against the second-half spread. The only undefeated QBs 2H ATS (min. 2 starts) are Joe Flacco (2-0) and Russell Wilson (2-0).
On the road, on a Sunday, the Bears have lost 18 consecutive games dating back to the day after Christmas in 2021 – won by Nick Foles – Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian, Tyson Bagent, and Caleb Williams have all lost since Foles' win.
Every NFL Game For Week 9
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➤We may see the Jets close as favorites this week vs. Texans.
In a team's 9th game or later, this could be just the 7th time since 1990 a team with a win pct 50+ pct pts lower is listed as a favorite.
The previous six teams listed as the favorite in that spot went 6-0 SU and 4-0-2 ATS.
➤Thursday home teams are just 41-54 ATS since 2019, including 37-48 ATS in night Thursday games.
Teams playing at home in a night game outside of the SNF window are 96-113-3 ATS since 2019. SNF home teams are 58-55 ATS in that span.
Over the last two seasons, games plated on a Thursday are 18-9 to the over.
➤Last year, the Texans were 200-1 to win the Super Bowl. This year, they entered the year at 16-1. Seven teams have made the SB odds jump from 150-1 to under 20-1 year-to-year since 1977 and only the 2000 Rams (7-1) started 6-2 SU or better like the 2024 Texans.
So far, expectations have been met for Houston.
➤This will be CJ Stroud’s third game played at night with the Texans. He’s 2-0 SU, but 1-1 ATS. He beat the Bears at home earlier this year as a 6.5 pt favorite, but didn’t cover and beat the Colts in Indy last year.
This will be the shortest prep (4 days) Stroud has had before a game in his pro or college careers.
➤Even though from an ATS perspective, Stroud’s home/road numbers are similar, he’s a different QB.
Home: 6-7 ATS, 22 pass TD, 5 INT, 8.6 Y/A, 105.7 pass rtg, 66.4% comp%
Road: 6-6 ATS, 12 pass TD, 4 INT, 7 Y/A, 90.5 pass rtg, 62.8% comp%
➤Houston will be without both Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs. They represent 62.7% of the team’s receiving yards, 45.3% of their targets and almost 60% of their teams 1st read/designed target pct this year.
➤Texans have struggled out of the locker room this season. They are 1-7 3Q ATS, tied for the worst mark in the NFL with the Browns.
➤How much does win pct matter in Thursday night games?
Teams with a win pct 50+ pts higher than their opponent are 19-27-1 ATS (41%) since 2003. On either TNF, SNF, or MNF, these such teams are 79-98-6 ATS (45%) since 2003.
➤Aaron Rodgers has played 17 career games on a Thursday. He is 12-4-1 ATS, including 10-4-1 ATS on Thursday Night Football. As a favorite in night games, Rodgers is just 3-3 SU since his playoff loss to the 49ers in 2022.
Rodgers has only faced three teams in his career with a win pct of 70% or higher on a Thursday – he is 3-0 SU/ATS in those games, all coming with the Packers.
➤57 QBs have had 100+ pass attempts on Thursday night football since 1990 – Rodgers’ 34 pass TD is 2nd most behind Peyton Manning (35) and Rodgers' 6.4 pass TD/INT is better than Manning or Brady on TNF – Rodgers has 34 pass TD, 5 INT on TNF.
➤Rodgers is .500 ATS or better in each of the four different days he’s played night games on in his career:
10-4-1 ATS Thursday
22-17-1 ATS Sunday
11-10 ATS Monday
3-3 ATS Saturday
➤Rodgers has played on just 4 days rest 13 times in his career. He’s 9-3-1 ATS in those games, the best of 141 QBs since 2003, covering the spread by 5.6 PPG.
➤December 12th, 2021 — Aaron Rodgers’ last 300+ yard passing game. Also his last four-touchdown game (which came against the Bears). Since that 300-yard game: he's 14-17 SU, 12-19 ATS — includes NYJ opener win vs Buffalo last year.
➤This season, Rodgers is 2-6 ATS, the least profitable QB in the NFL.
➤Another week, another New York team in primetime at night.
The Jets and Giants are now a combined 4-33 straight-up playing at night in prime time since 2019.
They last finished a season .500 SU or better in night games in 2015; they are 11-46 SU in primetime since then.
➤The Cowboys' pass offense has really struggled this year compared to the previous few seasons.
2021-23: 4th EPA/play on dropbacks, 4th success rate on dropbacks
2024: 23rd EPA/play on dropbacks, 22nd success rate on dropbacks
➤Dating back to last season, the Cowboys have struggled ATS recently. They are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games –tied for the worst mark for any NFL team in that span.
➤Dak has had his struggles as an underdog. He’s 17-20 ATS in his career, but 2-10 ATS as an underdog in his last 12 starts.
Since 2020, he’s 4-12 ATS as a dog. Here are the only QBs worse: Bryce Young, Justin Fields, and Mac Jones.
➤Cowboys run defense has been a big issue.
Dallas has allowed 12 rush TD, 2nd-most in the NFL behind only the Panthers.
Dallas is 32nd in rush EPA/play and 31st in rush success rate.
Dallas has been outgained by 175+ total yards in each of their last 2 games – the last time that happened in back-to-back games for them was Weeks 9-10, 1962.
➤Dak Prescott is 29-12 ATS vs. NFC East (+$1,541) | 38-47-2 ATS vs. all other divisions (-$1,131).
Since 2003, Prescott has been the second-most profitable QB against the spread vs. his division (Rodgers is first) and the 5th-worst vs. non-division opponents of 280 QBs.
➤Dak has played three games with the Cowboys directly after Dallas facing the 49ers and they are 3-0 SUATS, covering the spread by 9.7 PPG.
➤Here is how Cousins has performed in his career off a SU win and loss.
Win: 32-44-2 ATS (2nd-worst of 243 QBs since 2003)
Loss: 41-26 ATS (5th-best of 280 QBs since 2003)
➤Since the start of 2020, the Falcons are 8-19-1 ATS after a SU win, the worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Seahawks. The Falcons are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games after a SU win.
➤The Falcons last had a player with 10 sacks in 2016 when Vic Beasley had 15.5 sacks. Since 2017, Atlanta has been the only team in the NFL without a 10-sack season by any player.
Through eight games, Matthew Judon and Grady Jarrett both have just 1.5 sacks each.
On the season, the Falcons have just six sacks in eight games – only one team has had fewer than six sacks through eight games since 1990 – the 2008 Chiefs.
➤The over is 87-69-1 in Cousins’ career starts – making him the fifth-most profitable QB to the over since 2003.
➤Over the last 5 seasons, Kirk Cousins is 15-28 ATS playing indoor games, including 2-11 ATS in his last 13 games indoors.
Since 2020, Cousins is last of 92 QBs ATS playing indoor games. Cousins is 12-23 ATS at home since 2020, which is the least profitable mark of 104 QBs in that span.
➤Kirk Cousins just doesn’t enjoy night games. Here are his W/L splits.
1p ET or earlier: 60-34-2 SU (64%) – 2nd-best of 171 QBs behind just Andrew Luck since he was drafted.
After 1p ET: 22-39 SU (36%)
➤This is one of just a few games that could close with a total of 50+ this week. Totals of 50+ are 6-4 to the under this season. Over the last two seasons, totals of 50+ are 18-8 to the under and last three years they are 36-18 to the under (67%).
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➤Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa have faced each other seven times in their careers entering this week – Allen is 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in those games. Tua is Josh Allen’s most profitable opposing QB ATS in his career.
In those seven games, Allen has covered the spread by 13.5 PPG. Allen has played four home games vs. Tua and he’s scored 26, 32, 48 and 56 points.
➤Miami has specifically had issues with Buffalo and Josh Allen. They are 2-12 SU vs. him, including 0-7 SU in Buffalo.
➤Dating back to last season, Tua has now lost six consecutive games ATS. He was 29-19-1 ATS in his career prior to this stretch. His longest ATS losing streak before this run was just three games back in early 2021.
➤The road hasn’t been a place for Tua in his career. On the road and neutral site, he is 11-14-1 ATS, while he is 18-11 ATS at home in Miami.
Tua has also struggled against the best on the road. Against teams below .500 SU, Tua is 5-4 ATS road/neutral. When that team is above .500 SU, he is 3-8-1 ATS, including 0-5 SU/ATS since the beginning of last season.
Since Tua was drafted, his 3-8-1 ATS mark is tied for the worst mark of 92 QBs with Matt Ryan. As a road dog, Tua is 2-10 SU in his last 12 starts in that spot.
➤Tagovailoa is a combined 9-1 ATS vs. the Patriots and Jets. He is 2-5-1 ATS vs. the Bills.
➤47 QBs have had at least 30 plays this season, Dolphins QBs rank 46th (Skylar), 41st (Boyle), 39th (Huntley) and 25th (Tua).
Thompson is actually the only QB of the bunch with a positive CPOE on the season.
➤This is one of just a few games that could close with a total of 50+ this week. Totals of 50+ are 6-4 to the under this season. Over the last two seasons, totals of 50+ are 18-8 to the under and the last three years, they are 36-18 to the under (67%).
➤Josh Allen threw his first interception of the season last week against the Seahawks. In his career, Allen is 32-21-3 ATS after throwing a pick in his previous game. He is just 25-28-2 ATS after a start without an INT.
➤Allen’s streak of 2+ pass TDs in 13 consecutive games vs. Dolphins was broken in Week 2 this season when he only threw one. Still, Allen has thrown a pass TD in all 14 starts vs. the Dolphins.
➤Something about the AFC East. After facing the division, Allen’s not so great ATS following week.
After facing AFC East: 16-21-1 ATS
After facing all other teams: 38-25-4 ATS
➤Raiders, Browns, Packersm and Seahawks are about to play games with some extra rest (12+ days) on the horizon, with their opponent not in the same spot.
Since 2016, teams with rest on the horizon are 58% SU and 59% ATS in an over 230-game sample size. In 2024 so far, they are 8-4 SU and 8-3-1 ATS.
➤Raiders currently lead the NFL in turnovers on offense with 17, their most in the 1st 8 games since they had 19 in 2009.
➤The Raiders run game has been terrible now in consecutive seasons. They have 632 rush yards through eight games, the 2nd-lowest mark in the NFL this year ahead of just Dallas.
Since 2000, Raiders are just the 3rd team with 632 rush yds or less through 8 games in consecutive seasons: 2023-24 LVR, 2022-23 TB, 2005-06 ARI.
➤The Raiders are having a tough time staying close in games this year.
Raiders are the 3rd team to fall behind by double digits in each of their first eight games in the Wild Card era (2013 Jaguars & 2000 Cardinals).
➤Brock Bowers continues to be the main target in Vegas this year. His 65 targets and 52 receptions through 8 career games are the most for any TE all-time.
➤As an underdog of 6 pts or more, Raiders coach Antonio Pierce is 5-1 ATS, including 4-0 ATS when that game is on the road.
➤This season, we’ve already had 3 outright upsets of 7 pts or more, where the team listed as the favorite was under .500 SU on the season (3-3 SU). Between 2016-23, those teams were 85-15 SU.
The 3 outright losses are already the most in a full single season since 2018 and 2019, where we had four each year.
➤In Burrow’s career, he's 41-25-1 (62%) against the second-half spread. He's 7-11 2H ATS since the start of 2023 after going 30-8-1 2H ATS between 2021-22.
When Burrow is favored by 6 pts or more on the full game line, he is 9-4 2H ATS in his career.
➤In the first six weeks of the season, Joe Burrow was 10-20 passing 20+ yds downfield, the 4th-ranked passer downfield according to PFF. In the last two weeks against the Browns and Eagles, Burrow is 1-8 passing deep, 0 TD, and an INT, the 4th-worst ranked passer downfield.
➤Burrow bounceback? Burow is 17-7-1 ATS after a SU loss, including 15-6-1 ATS in November or earlier.
Since Burrow was drafted, he is the 2nd-best QB after a SU loss behind only Jared Goff.
➤Bengals have the Ravens on deck next week. Teams with Baltimore on deck are 68-39 SU (64%) since Lamar became the starter in 2018 – that’s the best win pct for any opponent on deck. As they said in “The Wire”, “Lamar is coming.”
➤Zac Taylor has heavily relied on Joe Burrow in his coaching career. He is 8-22 SU with all QBs not named Burrow and is 37-29-1 SU in starts with Joe at QB. When Cincinnati is going bad, Taylor doesn’t exactly pick them up.
Zac Taylor on ML by Bengals win pct
Under .500 SU: 16-30-1 SU (35%) – including 11-13-1 SU with Burrow
Over .500 SU: 22-14 SU (61.1%) – 21-11 SU with Burrow
➤Being a big favorite hasn’t been a friendly spot for Burrow
-6 or higher: 5-8 ATS
Under -6 or a dog: 35-18-1 ATS
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➤Chargers are 6-1 to the under in the full game total this season, going under the total by 8.2 PPG. They are 4-2-1 to the first half under and 5-2 to the second half under.
Since the start of last season, the under is 18-6 in Chargers games, the best mark for any team in the NFL.
Even looking at just Jim Harbaugh and his tendencies, in his last three years as a coach in the NFL the under 27-14-1 in games he coaches with the Chargers and 49ers.
➤Looking specifically at Justin Herbert, he is now 16-4 to the under since the start of last season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL – including 16-2 to the under in his last 18 starts.
➤In his career, Jameis Winston has been a different QB as an underdog vs. a favorite.
As a favorite, he is 8-19-1 ATS, the 5th-worst mark for any QB since he was drafted in 2015. As an underdog, Winston is 27-23-3 ATS, including 5-1-1 ATS in his last 7 starts in that spot.
Overall, home games have been an issue for Jameis, but that’s mostly based on the point spread. He is 5-14-1 ATS at home as a favorite and 9-9-1 ATS as a dog.
➤Without Deshaun Watson for the remainder of the season, the Browns turned to a backup QB in Jameis Winston and it turned out well in game 1.
Since 2013, this will be the 65th game played by a backup QB for the Browns – the most in the NFL over that span by over 15 games.
Cleveland is 24-40 SU, 31-32-1 ATS with a backup QB in that span. Since the start of last season, Cleveland has played 13 games with a backup QB. Between Jameis Winston, Joe Flacco, Jeff Driskel, DTR, and PJ Walker, the Browns are actually 7-6 SU and 8-5 ATS.
➤Hard to overstate what Jameis brought to Cleveland’s offense with Deshaun out.
In 19 career starts for the Browns, Watson never threw for 300 yards. Winston did it in his first start; in fact, Winston and Flacco did it in 6-of-7 starts without Watson as QB. Watson averaged 170 pass yard per game in six full games and threw for 334 in his first start.
Minimum 50 plays at QB, Winston is 2nd in EPA/play and Watson is 39th of 42 qualified QBs.
➤The Browns had the best defense in the NFL last year by most standards. But for this concept, it was by EPA per play on defense, too. Over the last decade, their -0.155 EPA/play mark on defense was the fourth-best of any team and the best since the 2020 Rams and 2019 Patriots.
Looking over the last decade, 22 teams have put up a defensive EPA/play of -0.1 or better (not including 2023) – all 22 teams had a worse EPA/play mark the following season with 19 of the 22 teams also having a worse EPA/play ranking than the previous year. Only one team improved its ranking year-to-year, the 2019-20 Steelers. On average, teams had a ranking between seven and eight spots worse the following year after an incredible defensive season.
Through eight weeks, the Browns are 18th in EPA/play on defense.
➤There have been 159 QBs who have started at least 10 games in the last 20 years. Will Levis' 2-12 (14%) mark against the second-half spread is the worst in terms of win percentage for all 158 QBs.
Will Levis has made 14 starts in his NFL career, he is 9-5 1H ATS and 2-12 2H ATS. Outside of MNF, Levis is 0-12 2H ATS in his career.
➤As a starter, Will Levis is 4-10 SU/ATS in the NFL. On normal prep or less time (seven days or fewer), Levis is 1-7 SU/ATS as a starter. Levis has scored more than 17 points once in those eight games.
Two of Levis’ four career wins have come in night games. Outside that window, he is 2-9 SU/ATS as a starter.
➤Of the 64 QBs to have at least 100 plays since the start of last year, Levis ranked 51st in EPA/play, 51st in success rate, 54th in completion percentage … and 4th in air yards at 10 per attempt.
As a comparison, Mason Rudolph is ranked 36th in EPA/play, 36th in success rate, 17th in completion pct and 42nd in air yards. Rudolph is playing it safer and is a better option for Tennessee to stay in games – when their defense doesn’t allow 50+ pts.
➤The oddest of odd, but in his career, Rudolph is 10-6 ATS in 16 starts, but he’s lost three straight starts ATS, scoring 41 pts combined in all three games.
In 7 career starts at home, all with the Steelers, Rudolph is 5-2 ATS, covering by over 7 PPG.
➤Between Will Levis and Mason Rudolph, they’ve closed as a favorite in ten career starts and they are actually 5-5 ATS. The good thing for both QBs? New England’s 15.5 PPG scored, will be the 3rd-lowest mark they face as a favorite, they are 2-0 SU in those games and the four games they’ve faced with 17 PPG or less, they are 3-0-1 SU.
➤The Raiders may lead the league in turnovers, but the Titans own the longest active streak with at least one turnover in a game at nine currently dating back to last year.
Longest active streaks with at least one turnover:
Titans, 9
Chiefs, 8
Raiders, 8
➤Under Jerod Mayo, the Patriots have faced two teams after a battle against an AFC East opponent – they are 0-2 SU/ATS in those games, losing 30-13 and 41-21 in both contests.
➤Over the last two seasons, Jacoby Brissett has had about double the workload in terms of plays on-field vs. Drake Maye – Maye is 7 spots better in EPA/play, 3 spots better in success rate and his air yards are over 2 yards more downfield than Brissett’s.
Looking at deep balls, Maye’s PFF grade is almost 20 pts higher than Brissett’s and Maye’s four completions 20+ yds downfield already matches Brissett’s in almost 80 fewer total pass attempts.
➤The Patriots have had 1st half issues this year. They are 2-6 1H ATS, making Mayo 2nd-worst coach in that spot ahead of only Dave Canales. Patriots only 1H ATS wins have come vs. Dolphins and in their opener vs. Bengals.
Since 2022, they are 16-25-1 1H ATS, the 3rd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Steelers and Colts.
➤Teams after facing the Lions are 0-6 SU/ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 19.3 PPG and 14-25 ATS over the last three seasons – the least profitable previous opponent ATS in the NFL. Top 3: DET, HOU, SF
In the last decade, here is the list of teams to do what Detroit has done. Have other teams start 0-6 ATS after facing them: 2024 Lions, 2023 Cowboys, 2022 49ers, 2020 Chiefs, 2018 Bucs, 2017 Cowboys, 2015 Cardinals
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➤Can’t have a more suspenseful win than what the Commanders went through last week. Since 2000, this was the 6th TD with no time left and a team trailing by 6 pts or less. The last was Derek Carr to Michael Crabtree in 2017. The previous five teams went 1-4 SU in their next game after the last-second win, with 3 of the 4 losses by 7 pts or more.
In terms of last-second TDs, only Tim Couch’s 56-yard touchdown to Kevin Johnson on Halloween of 1999 was longer – and they lost SU/ATS the next week, 41-9.
➤Part of why Washington has been so good this season is their ability to convert on 3rd and 4th down.
On 4th down, they are 9-9 this season. Only Buffalo is also 100% on 4th down this year.
On 3rd down, Washington is 45-97, 46.4% – the 4th-best mark in the NFL.
Since 2000, Washington has the 5th-highest 3D conv. Pct through 8 games with a perfect 4th down rate on top – best since Buffalo in 2020.
➤Executing in the 4th quarter has been a minor issue for Washington this year.
1Q ATS: 6-2 ATS
2Q ATS: 5-3 ATS
3Q ATS: 6-2 ATS
4Q ATS: 2-6 ATS
➤This will be the Giants' 24th consecutive game as an underdog, the 2nd-longest active streak in the NFL behind the Panthers at 29.
New York was last favored in Week 2 of last season against the Cardinals.
➤Five straight Giants home games have gone under the total. Since the start of last season, Giants home games are 10-2 to the under – they've scored 10 points or less in 7 of 10 games.
In his career at home, Daniel Jones is 24-9-1 to the under. Of the 270 QBs over the last 20 years to start a game, he is the 3rd-most profitable to the under in home games, behind just Carson Wentz and Philip Rivers.
In Jones’ last 24 home games, the under is 19-4-1, going under by 4.6 PPG.
➤Daniel Jones has been on a roller coaster in terms of his performance on bounce-backs. Jones is 23-17 ATS in his career after a SU loss. He was 21-10 ATS between 2019-22, but now just 2-7 ATS over the last two seasons.
➤Daniel Jones is 5-2-1 SU, 6-2 ATS in his career vs. Washington, but 20-41 SU, 29-32 ATS against the rest of the NFL.
Daboll is 4-1 ATS vs. Washington, covering the spread by 8.5 PPG.
➤The Giants' defense has been a tough unit to deal with so far in 2024.
Giants lead the NFL in sacks this year with 35 – the most sacks for any team through eight games since the 2017 Jaguars, who also had 35. Since 2000, New York is tied for the 4th-most sacks through eight games.
➤In 1p ET games or earlier, Daniel Jones is 19-19-1 SU, 22-17 ATS. After the 1p ET window, he is 6-24 SU, 13-17 ATS.
➤The Saints need Derek Carr back at QB. Without him, they went 0-3 SU/ATS, being outscored 110-45, failing to cover the spread by 17.2 PPG.
Quick reminder. The Saints were tied for the 3rd-most points for any team in the first two games of a season in the Super Bowl era. Then they went 0-3 SU, 1-2 ATS, scoring under 50 pts combined in the three games.
The clearest difference between Rattler and Carr is shown in CPOE, Carr is 6th at 5.1 and Rattler is 36th of 37 QBs at -9.
➤Carr has faced the Panthers five times in his career. He is 5-0 SU and 3-1-1 ATS, scoring 20 pts or more in all five meetings and covering the spread by 10.1 PPG.
As a favorite of over 3 pts on the road, Derek Carr is 0-5 ATS in his career, the most losses without a cover in that spot for any QB since 2003.
➤Dennis Allen has struggled as a head coach when his teams don’t have extra time to prepare. He is 15-41 SU on normal or short rest as coach of the Saints and Raiders.
Allen is 1-11 SU on short rest.
Allen is 14-30 SU on normal rest.
Allen is 8-8 SU on extended rest.
➤The Saints defense has taken a turn for the worse lately. They’ve now allowed 26 pts or more in five straight games, the first time they’ve done that since 2014.
Historically, the Saints are 40-31-1 ATS after allowing 24 or more points in consecutive games since 2003, but 30-15-1 ATS under Sean Payton and 10-16 ATS under all other coaches, including 2-7 ATS with Dennis Allen.
This is a true battle of the bad defenses, as the Saints and Panthers have both allowed 26+ pts in five straight games – just the 2nd game in the last 20 years for that to be the case with a Giants-Vikings game from 2013.
➤The Saints have lost six consecutive games SU for just the second time in the last 25 seasons. The other time they dropped six straight games was the 2005 Katrina season.
➤The Saints are the 6th team to start a season 2-0 SU and then lose six consecutive games in the Super Bowl era and the first since the 2015 Cowboys. The previous five teams all finished with six wins or less and went a combined 21-57 SU, all missing the playoffs.
2015 Cowboys – 4-12 SU, miss playoffs
2013 Texans – 2-14 SU, miss playoffs
2007 49ers – 5-11 SU, miss playoffs
2002 Bears – 4-12 SU, miss playoffs
1974 49ers – 6-8 SU, miss playoffs
➤This will be the Panthers' 29th consecutive game as underdogs, including being an underdog in 38 of their last 39 games. Carolina was last favored in Week 15, 2022 (vs. PIT). They’ve lost nine straight games ATS as a favorite, while every other NFL team has had at least three covers as a favorite since Sept. 2021. They were last favored by FG (-3) or more in Nov. 2021.
➤Since Christmas of last year, the Panthers are just 1-9 SU and 1-9 ATS, with their only win/cover coming against the Raiders the game directly after benching Bryce Young for Andy Dalton.
➤The reason for Carolina’s struggles of late has been starting slow. They are 1-14 against the first-half spread in their last 15 games overall, worst mark in the NFL in that span.
Bryce Young has now lost 11 consecutive games against the first-half spread with the Panthers.
➤Panthers are rarely ahead and can’t come back when they are behind. They’ve lost 56 consecutive games SU when trailing by 10+ pts at any point.
➤If Dalton starts, he’s faced Dennis Allen once in his career, Bengals-Raiders, and Dalton put up 34 points against Oakland.
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➤Bo Nix has turned a bit of a corner. In Week 8, he was the 6th-best QB in EPA/play and 3rd in CPOE.
Since Week 5:
18th EPA/play, 19th success rate, 16th CPOE
Weeks 1-4:
27th EPA/play, 28th success rate, 27th CPOE
➤In Nix’s early career as a starter, he is 4-0 ATS on the road, covering the spread by 13.8 PPG.
Here is the list of QBs 4-0 ATS or better on the road this season: Bo Nix and Joe Burrow. If Bo Nix covers this week in Baltimore, here is the list of rookie QBs to start 4-0 & 5-0 ATS on the road.
2008-11 Dan Orlovsky, 7-0 ATS
2017-18 Patrick Mahomes, 6-0 ATS
2016 Dak Prescott, 5-0 ATS
2011 Andy Dalton 5-0 ATS
2022-23 Bailey Zappe, 4-0 ATS
2018 Lamar Jackson, 4-0 ATS
2016-17 Jimmy G, 4-0 ATS
➤Part of Denver’s success this year has been behind the defense. They are allowing 15 PPG, the 3rd-best mark in the NFL, including just 6 PPG in the second half. Last year, they allowed 13.1 PPG in the second half.
Denver’s defense is 1st in EPA/play and 3rd in success rate, including the best in both categories vs. the pass.
➤Denver’s schedule does get tougher. They have the 5th-toughest remaining schedule of any team in the NFL, including the 2nd-toughest in the AFC behind only Cleveland.
➤The Broncos are already 4-0 ATS on the road this season. In his career, Sean Payton is 81-58-3 ATS on the road or at a neutral site.
How about at home? The Broncos are 2-2 ATS this year and 9-12 ATS since 2022. Since 2018, even Sean Payton is just 21-28 ATS.
➤Payton is 56-37-2 ATS as an underdog as a head coach. Since 2003, that is the 2nd-best mark of 155 coaches behind just Mike Tomlin.
Since 2020, Payton is just 12-12 ATS as a 'dog, he was 44-25-2 ATS prior to that.
Payton has only closed +7 or higher twelve times and he is 9-3 ATS in those games, covering by 7 PPG.
➤Sean Payton has never faced Lamar Jackson prior to this week. In Lamar Jackson’s 91 career starts, he has faced a coach for the first time 42 times – he is 35-7 SU (85%), 22-20 ATS in those games. In a coach's first two games vs. Lamar, Jackson is 50-16 SU, 34-31-1 ATS. In a coach's 3rd game or later, Lamar is just 15-10 SU/ATS.
➤Over the past four seasons, Jackson is 7-1 ATS as a dog, but 19-22-1 ATS as a favorite, including 8-19-1 ATS when favored by more than three points.
As either a favorite of 3 pts or less or an underdog, Jackson is 18-4 ATS in that timespan and 25-5 ATS in his career in the regular season.
➤Ravens won the 1H SU vs. the Browns, but lost ATS. Overall, Jackson is 55-34-2 1H ATS in his career, making him the best QB 1H ATS in the last 20 years of 262 QBs.
2024: 4-4 1H ATS
2023: 13-5 1H ATS
2021-22: 10-13-1 1H ATS
2018-20: 28-12-1 1H ATS
➤Lamar was 4-0 ATS last year after a SU loss. In 2024, he is just 1-1 ATS after a loss.
In his career, Lamar is just 10-11 ATS after a SU loss, including 6-2 ATS at a road or neutral site and 4-9 ATS at home after a loss.
➤Doug Pederson returns to Philly again. His results in Jacksonville and Philadelphia have been relatively similar, well except for the Super Bowl ring.
Jaguars: 21-23 SU, 23-21 ATS
Eagles: 46-39-1 SU, 43-43 ATS
In 2022, Pederson faced the Eagles in Philly and lost 29-21 as a 6.5-pt underdog.
➤Trevor Lawrence is 8-20 SU on the road. On the moneyline, he's lost a $100 bettor $1,119 on the road in his career. Of the 275 QBs who have made a start since 2003, Lawrence is ranked 269th – Lawrence has lost six straight road starts on the moneyline dating back to last season.
As Lawrence’s opponent gets better, it gets worse for Lawrence.
51%+: 3-10 SU
60%+: 2-9 SU
66%+: 1-7 SU
70%+: 0-4 SU
➤Lawrence’s home/road splits have been drastically different this year.
Home: 67% comp pct, 9.4 Y/A, 104.5 pass rtg
Road: 58% comp pct, 5.8 Y/A, 84.2 pass rtg
➤Trevor Lawrence’s last four starts have gone over the total. He’s only had four straight starts to the over once in his career in his 60 career starts.
Lawrence is 33-27 to the under in his NFL career, including 24-17 to the under in November or earlier. Lawrence is .500 or better to the under in all four of his seasons.
➤One thing with Jacksonville is they’ve started decently hot on the road the last few years. Since 2022, they are 14-8 1Q ATS on the road, over .500 ATS in that spot all three years, including 3-1 1Q ATS on the road this year.
➤The Eagles have played eight games this season. When AJ Brown has played, they are 4-0 SU, averaging 27.3 PPG. When he doesn’t, they are 1-2 SU, averaging 17.3 PPG.
➤A stat that feels impossible. Through seven games, the Eagles haven’t scored a point in the first quarter. They are 0-7 against the first-quarter spread, the only team in the NFL without a 1Q ATS cover this year.
Dating back to last season, the Eagles haven’t scored a point in the 1Q in 9 straight games. The last game they did was against the Cardinals – a 12-yard TD pass from Jalen Hurts to Julio Jones.
Here are the teams in the Super Bowl era that went scoreless in 1st quarter in 1st 7 games:
1991 Packers
1988 Bucs
1986 Lions
1977 Falcons
1976 Falcons
➤As a home favorite, Jalen Hurts is 15-4-3 on the first-half moneyline in his career, winning each 1H by 7.6 PPG. Hurts is above .500 SU in all four seasons in this spot, and since he was drafted, is the 3rd-most profitable on ML of 77 QBs behind only Russell Wilson and Jared Goff.
➤In his career, Jalen Hurts has been great at home ATS, but not recently. He’s 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS in his last five home starts. Hurts only had 6 ATS home losses prior to this stretch (17-6-1 ATS).
Eagles haven’t lost five consecutive games ATS at home since 2018 before this. They last lost six straight ATS at home in 2012-13, when they lost ten consecutive home games ATS.
As a favorite of over 7 pts, Hurts is 3-8-1 ATS and 1-8 ATS in his last 9 starts in the spot.
Jalen Hurts' Career
Home: 17-11-1 ATS (4th-best of 104 QBs since 2020).
Road/Neutral: 14-19-1 ATS (3rd-worst of 109 QBs since 2020).
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➤This season, Caleb Williams is 7-0 against the second-half spread. The only undefeated QBs 2H ATS (min. 2 starts) are Joe Flacco (2-0) and Russell Wilson (2-0).
➤Caleb Williams had his 3rd game with a passer rating of 60 or less within his first 7 career starts last week. Since 2017, the only other QB to “accomplish” that, Zach Wilson.
➤In Caleb’s seven starts, the under is 1-3 in his home starts and 3-0 in his road starts, with Chicago scoring 16 pts or less in all three games.
➤Bears haven’t had much success on the road outside of primetime windows.
In the Bears' last four road games outside of a Sunday, they are 4-0 SU dating back to the middle of the 2021 season and they are 7-2 SU since 2018.
On the road, on a Sunday, the Bears have lost 18 consecutive games dating back to the day after Christmas in 2021 – won by Nick Foles – Andy Dalton, Justin Fields, Trevor Siemian, Tyson Bagent, and Caleb Williams have all lost since Nick’s win.
➤The Bears have had one of the wildest turnarounds for a defense in the red zone. Last year, they allowed a red-zone percentage (pct of TD/red zone trip) of 68.9%, the 2nd-worst in the NFL. This year, that is down to 36.8%, the best mark in the NFL.
➤The team with the toughest remaining schedule in the NFL? The Bears, with their opponents winning 63.2% of games – Chicago still has to play all six division games.
➤In 2024, Kyler Murray has 4 TD passes of 20+ yards downfield – only Trevor Lawrence, Jalen Hurts and Jordan Love have more.
In 2022 and 2023 combined, Kyler had just 2 TD passes of 20+ yards downfield.
➤Cardinals are coming off 10+ pt comeback win last week. Teams coming off a 10+ pt comeback in their previous game, are 90-89 SU, but 78-99-2 ATS (44%), including 96-80-3 to the under in their next game since 2020.
➤In his career, Kyler is 15-17 SU, 17-14-1 ATS after a Cardinals SU win, and now 1-2 ATS this season. Kyler, himself, hadn’t won consecutive starts SU since October of 2021 – a streak of 11 consecutive SU losses before last week vs. Dolphins.
In 2021, the Cardinals started 7-0 SU. Aside from that, Kyler has won 3 straight games just twice, once in 2019 and once in 2020.
➤Teams traveling from a road game in EST to a home game in MST or PST is 60-86-1 ATS (41.1%) over the last decade.
➤Jordan Love and Jared Goff have faced off twice before this and both times the road team got the win and cover, with the total going over in both games.
➤The role as a favorite hasn’t been too kind to Jordan Love. Love is 4-6 ATS as a favorite in his short career and he is 10-6 ATS as an underdog.
➤The bad and the good for Jordan Love. Love’s CPOE (completion percentage over expected) is -1.5 this year, ranked 27th of 37 QBs with 100+ plays.
The good part? Love’s long passing game. Last season, he was 38-of-90 (42%) on passes 20 yards downfield – the most completions in football and ranked in the middle of the NFL in terms of percentage. This season, he’s 14-of-33 on those throws with 3rd-most completions and tied for the most TD passes with 5.
➤If the Packers need to turn to Malik Willis with Love injured this week, Green Bay hopes they are getting the Malik playing this season.
In his only 61 plays this year, Willis is the best QB in the NFL in EPA/play and he is 6th in CPOE. Part of that is his 6.5 low aDOT, which is 38th of 42 QBs this year.
What Green Bay hopes doesn’t happen is them getting the old Malik. Between 2018-23, 123 QBs have had 50+ plays, Malik’s EPA/play was 119th, his success rate was 113th and his CPOE was 107th.
Malik Willis is 2-0 SU/ATS in his starts in place of Love this year, covering the spread by 14 PPG. In his career, Willis is actually 4-1 ATS, covering the spread by 7.3 PPG.
The problem for Willis will be if Green Bay falls behind. Here are Willis’ numbers based on game script.
Leading: 65% comp%, 3 pass TD, 0 INT, 105 pass rtg
Tied: 58.8% comp%, 0 pass TD, 1 INT, 61 pass rtg
Trailing: 57% comp%, 0 pass TD, 2 INT, 59 pass rtg
➤The Packers are 2-1 SU/ATS as dogs this season. Matt LaFleur is 24-11 ATS (69%) as an underdog, the best percentage for any coach in the Super Bowl era. LaFleur is also 20-15 SU as a dog (+$1,695 on $100 bet).
You would expect to see a dip in his numbers when favored, but he’s actually 33-30 ATS as a favorite with the Packers. The issue has been away from home, where he's gone 9-15 ATS as a favorite.
➤After a SU win, LaFleur has performed well with the Packers. His teams are 36-28 ATS after a SU win, they are 24-19 ATS after 2+ straight wins and 16-13 ATS on a 3+ game SU win streak.
➤Matt LaFleur has done an incredible job facing good teams. He is 28-16 ATS (64%) vs. teams above .500 SU with the Packers – the 6th-best mark of any head coach since 2003.
LaFleur is only 22-20 ATS vs. teams below .500 SU.
➤The Lions have been juggernauts this season. According to Aaron Schatz, only nine teams since 1979 have ranked in the top five in DVOA in all three phases after Week 8. Six won the Super Bowl: 2024 DET, 2023 KC, 2022 BUF, 2007 NE, 1999 STL, 1996 GB, 1991 WAS, 1990 NYG, 1985 CHI
➤In the regular season, Dan Campbell is 45-25 ATS (64%) as coach of the Dolphins and Lions. That 64% win pct is the best for any head coach with a minimum of 20 games in the Super Bowl era.
The Lions are 41-17 ATS (70.7%) in the regular season over the past four years — the best three-year ATS stretch since 2016-18 NE and, as of now, the best four-year ATS stretch for any team in the Wild Card era since 1990.
➤The Lions face their 2nd NFC North opponent of the 2024 season this week. Both Dan Campbell and Jared Goff have had success vs. divisional opponents in their careers.
Campbell: 15-8 ATS (3rd-best since he joined DET)
Goff: 27-16-1 ATS – including 14-5 ATS with Lions (best since he joined DET)
➤Goff ATS by indoor/outdoor…
Indoor: 41-18 ATS (31-10 ATS last four seasons)
Outdoor: 36-35-2 ATS
➤Some absurd Lions history. The Lions have scored 172 points in their last 4 games – the most Detroit has put up in a 4-game span in team history.
Lions are averaging 33.4 PPG and have a 85% SU win pct. Only three teams have done that entering their 8th game or later since 2019: 21 TB, 20 SEA, 19 BAL.
Since 2000, Detroit is the 6th team to score 234+ points through 7 games and have a point differential of 100+. Of the five previous teams, four made the Super Bowl.
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➤The Rams are coming off extended rest this week to face the Seahawks in Seattle.
On any extended rest, Stafford is 25-22-1 ATS in his career. Stafford is 49-69-5 ATS on normal seven days rest and 17-17 ATS on short rest.
Stafford’s issue has been with the Rams on extended rest, where he is 4-9-1 ATS – since 2021, his 4-9-1 ATS mark is the worst of 78 QBs.
➤Dating back to the Rams-Bengals Super Bowl in 2022, Sean McVay is 0-8-1 ATS on extended rest as coach of the Rams. He was 12-8-2 ATS in that spot previous to this stretch.
McVay was 8-6-2 ATS on extended rest with Goff and 4-10-1 ATS with Stafford and Baker Mayfield.
➤Kyren Williams has scored a TD in all 7 Rams games this year and in 10 straight regular season games for L.A, the longest streak in the NFL. Derrick Henry has scored in 8 straight games to begin the year as well.
If Kyren scores on Sunday, there will only be three longer TD streaks in the regular season since 2000: LT 18 in 2004-05, CMC 14 2022-23, Todd Gurley 13 2017-18.
➤Kenneth Walker’s lack of production lately has been alarming for Seattle. His four straight games with under 70 yards rushing is the 2nd-longest stretch of his career.
RBs haven’t had the easiest time going up against the Rams defense this year. Of the 14 total, five have eclipsed their rushing yards over/under.
➤Since the beginning of last season, Geno Smith is 3-9 ATS at home – the worst mark for any active starting QB in the NFL, with just Sam Howell below Geno, at a 0-7-1 ATS mark at home. In those 12 home games, Seattle is failing to cover the spread by 5+ PPG.
At home, Geno has 4 TD, 6 INT, on the road he has 4 TD and 1 INT. His road passer rating is 16 pts higher than his home one.
Geno’s +1.0 CPOE at home is ranked 37th of 53 QBs QBs this season.
➤Historically, being a home dog has been an advantage in Seattle. But not this year.
They are 25-16-1 ATS as home dogs since 2003 – but this season, they are 0-2 ATS.
➤Geno has faced Sean McVay four times in his career and he is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 6.3 PPG. In his last three starts, Geno has failed to put up 20 points in all three.
➤Geno has struggled mightly lately to even cover the spread no matter the location. He is 4-11-2 ATS in his last 17 total starts over the last calendar year – the least profitable QB ATS of 74 QBs in that span.
➤The NFC West hasn’t been a friendly place for Seattle. You have to go all the way back to 2014 to find the last season they finished above .500 ATS vs. their own division.
In that span, they are 24-32-1 ATS vs. NFC West, the worst mark of any team in that division.
➤Matthew Stafford is 11-20-1 against the second-half spread since the start of 2022 – the 3rd-worst mark in the NFL. Since 2019, he is 28-47-2 2H ATS, the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL, ahead of just Justin Herbert.
Stafford can’t hold a lead. He’s 33-62-2 2H ATS after leading at half in his career, including 2-12-1 2H ATS in that spot last three seasons and 9-25-1 2H ATS since 2019.
➤McVay is 28-18-1 ATS vs. the NFC West in his coaching career. He is just 40-43-3 ATS vs. all other divisions.
McVay is just 6-10 ATS vs. 49ers, but he is a combined 22-8-1 ATS vs. the Cardinals and Seahawks (10-5 ATS vs. SEA).
➤The Colts have made the decision to go to Joe Flacco, benching Anthony Richardson.
Richardson enters this week with a 44.4% completion pct this year on 133 pass attempts. Since 2000, Richardson’s 44.4% mark is the 4th-lowest through a team's first 8 games of the year with at least 100 pass attempts on the season.
2000 Akili Smith, 42.6%
2009 Derek Anderson, 42.9%
2013 Josh Freeman, 42.9%
2024 Anthony Richardson, 44.4%
In his career, he has a 50.2% completion pct on 217 pass attempts. Since 2000, Richardson’s 50.2% mark is the 5th-lowest through a QBs first ten starts with at least 200 pass attempts.
2001-05 Mike McMahon, 43.8%
2000-03 Anthony Wright, 47.2%
2010-11 Tim Tebow, 48.5%
2011 Blaine Gabbert, 48.8%
2023-24 Anthony Richardson, 50.2%
Richardson’s off-target throw pct is 27% this year, the highest pct for any QB this year. His on-target percentage is just 55.6% – 14 pts lower than any other QB, 2nd-worst is Caleb Williams.
➤Joe Flacco’s completion percentage is over 21 percentage points higher than Anthony Richardson this season. One thing Flacco and Richardson have in common is they are chucking it downfield.
Richardson’s 13.1 average depth of target is the highest mark in the NFL by over three full yards. Flacco’s aDOT is 8.9, 7th in the NFL.
Flacco ranks 6th in EPA/play this season, 18th in success rate, and 11th in CPOE. Richardson is 34th, 38th, and 42nd (last) in those three categories.
➤In Joe Flacco’s last seven starts for both the Colts and Browns, he is 6-1 ATS and this is slated to be his biggest line as an underdog since September of 2022 for the Jets.
Flacco has only started one night game since November of 2020 and that was a home game for the Browns against the Jets last year, a 37-20 win as a 7-pt favorite. As a dog in night games, Flacco is 13-9 ATS across is whole career.
➤As an underdog of 5 pts or more, Flacco is just 4-24 SU in his career, including 1-17 SU dating back to 2013.
➤The Colts have started the season with each of their games decided by one score (eight points or less) through eight games. Their record is 4-4 SU and their point differential for the season is plus-three. Dating back to last season, Indy’s last ten games have all been decided by one score.
Here are the teams to start a season with eight straight one-score games over the past decade, how many games the streak went and their playoff result.
2024 Colts
2019 Colts – Miss – 9
2016 Ravens – Miss – 8
2016 Lions – L WC – 11
2015 Ravens – Miss – 12
The Colts have played 17 one-score games under Shane Steichen, Indy is 10-7 SU and 13-4 ATS.
➤Vikings are 7-0 against the first quarter spread this season – the best mark in the NFL. Every other team has at least two 1Q ATS losses this year.
The second half has been a let down for Minnesota lately. They are 1-3 2H ATS last four games, scoring 6 points or less in three of them.
➤Back-to-back night games in primetime for Minnesota. This will be Sam Darnold’s 2nd start for Minnesota in 4p ET kick or later after last week – a more high-profile spot, outside of the London game vs. Jets.
Darnold is 5-11 SU in games played at 4p ET or later – including just 1-3 SU when listed as the favorite.
On short rest, Darnold is just 2-7 SU in his career. On extended rest, Darnold is 2-6 SU in his career, for a combined 4-13 SU. On normally 7-day rest, he is 19-22 SU, much more respectable.
➤Vikings started the season 5-0 SU and have now dropped two straight. Since 1990, just nine teams have started 5-0 SU and then lost two straight. Six of those 9 teams still went on the make the playoffs. The last to miss? 2016 Vikings.
➤The Vikings defense continues to be stingy under Brian Flores this year.
3rd in EPA/play, 6th success rate, 6th EPA/dropback, 1st EPA/rush
In one fewer game played, Vikings still have 7 more QB pressures than any other team, with the higher pressure pct in the NFL … and the highest blitz pct.
Since 2018, Minnesota’s 97 pressures through 7 games is the 4th-most for any team behind the 2020 Steelers, 2020 Ravens and 2018 Browns.
➤In his NFL career, Darnold has closed as a FG favorite or higher eight times, his teams are 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS in those games, failing to cover the spread by 7.8 PPG.
➤How does extra rest/prep help for night games?
Teams at home off extended rest in a night game, when the opponent is on normal rest or less, are 22-9 SU and 18-12-1 ATS since 2019.
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➤This season, Monday Night Football overs are sitting at 8-3. In terms of night games this year, Monday, Thursday and Friday are a combined 14-6 to the over, while Sunday Night Football is just 2-6 to the over this year.
Through eight weeks, this is the best season for overs on MNF since 2008 and 2009 seasons.
➤Here’s the company KC holds at the moment. Here are defending champs to start 7-0 SU the following season: 2024 KC, 2019 NE, 2015 NE, 2011 GB, 2007 IND, 1998 DEN and 1990 SF.
The Chiefs are the first team to begin 7-0 vs. a first-place schedule since the Patriots in 2019.
➤Patrick Mahomes has 23 INT in the regular season since the start of last year, the most of any QB in the NFL.
Most regular season interceptions since the start of last season
23 — Patrick Mahomes
21 — Sam Howell
20 — Jordan Love
➤This season, Mahomes is 6-1 against the second-half spread, 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind Caleb Williams. Dating back to last year, Mahomes is now 11-1 2H ATS in his last 12 starts.
➤After starting his career 8-0 SU the week after facing the Raiders, Mahomes is just 2-2 SU over the last three seasons.
➤This is a good one. The top-2 teams in the NFL in 3rd down conversion pct: 1. Bucs, 2. Chiefs. Both are above 50% on the year entering Week 9.
Tampa Bay’s mark of 52.5% is the highest through eight weeks since 2021 Chiefs.
➤Part of the Chiefs success has been the defense. Allowing 27 pts or less now in 28 consecutive games – longest for any team since the 2005 Ravens, who did it in 29 straight games.
➤Mahomes is now 24-35-2 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 pts or more since 2020, the worst mark of any QB in the NFL after the Chiefs beat but didn’t cover vs. Raiders last week.
➤Chiefs have struggled coming out of the gate this year, especially at home recently.
They are 1-6 against the first-quarter spread in 2024, the 2nd-worst mark in the NFL ahead of just the Eagles. Over the last two seasons, KC is 4-8 1Q ATS at home, too.
➤Mahomes’ average depth of target has been a large story for the Chiefs…
Patrick Mahomes average depth of target
5.9 — 2024 (lowest in the NFL)
6.6 — 2023
7.4 — 2022
7.3 — 2021
8.4 — 2020
8.8 — 2019
9.1 — 2018 (10th in the NFL)
➤As a favorite of over 7 pts, Mahomes is 19-24-1 ATS, but he is 16-14-1 ATS at home and 3-10-1 ATS on the road.
➤At home in night games, Mahomes is 17-6 SU. On the road or neutral site for night games, Mahomes is also 17-6 SU.
In 2024, Mahomes is 3-0 SU/ATS in night games. In his career, he is 27-18-1 ATS. Since his rookie year, that 27-18-1 ATS mark is 2nd-best of any QB in night games behind just Jared Goff.
The only QBs 3-0 ATS or better at night this year are Mahomes and Brock Purdy. Mahomes has covered six straight night games dating back to last season.
➤Mahomes is 26-6 SU, 18-13-1 ATS vs. NFC in his career. As a favorite of 7 pts or more vs. NFC, he is 2-9 ATS in his career.
➤Mahomes and Andy Reid are off extended rest for this game. Mahomes is 29-7 SU, 19-16-1 ATS on extended rest (eight or more days). Reid is 63-27 SU (70%) and 51-38-1 ATS (57%) on extended rest dating back to 2003.
On extended rest (eight or more days), Reid and the Chiefs are 26-4 SU since 2019. The four QBs who beat them since 2019: Tom Brady, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Jared Goff.
➤The only advantage the Bucs may have the rest of the way after suffering brutal injuries to their receiving core is the fact they currently hold the league's easiest remaining SOS. Their opponents have a win pct of 37.7%, over 40 pts lower than the 2nd-easiest team, Arizona.
➤Sometimes a change in QB is all you need. Bowles is 20-64 SU (30%) as an underdog in his coaching career. He’s 8-10 SU as a dog with Mayfield at QB and 12-36 SU (25%) without him.
➤In the regular season, Mayfield has played on Monday Night Football seven times and he is 1-6 SU/ATS (0-5 SU/ATS when listed as the underdog) with his only win coming in his first MNF start in 2019, where he faced the Jets with Trevor Siemien and Luke Falk at QB.
Of 139 QBs since 2003, Mayfield has the most ATS losses without a win as a dog on MNF. He’s the 2nd-least profitable ahead of just Kirk Cousin (2-7) and would pass Kirk for worst with an ATS loss this week.
➤Baker has had his struggles on extended rest in his career going just 9-12 SU and 8-13 ATS, including 3-7 SU on the road.
Baker is the 2nd-worst QB ATS on extended rest since he was drafted, ahead of just Cam Newton.
From the coaching side, Todd Bowles is 9-16 SU on extended rest in his career, including 2-7 SU on the road. Bowles is 1-10 SU as a road dog on extended rest in his last 11 starts in that spot.
➤As an underdog of 6 pts or more, Bowles is just 3-24 SU in his career as a head coach. The only good part? 2 of those 3 wins came in night games.
Worst ML profit as a dog in night games since 2003: Pat Shurmur, Hue Jackson, Jim Schwartz, and Todd Bowles.
➤This season Baker is 6-2 to the over in his eight starts – the 2nd-best mark of any QB, behind just Lamar Jackson.
Prior to this season, he was 41-48-1 to the over in his career.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: When both teams are on short rest, look to the over early in games.
Matches: NYJ/HOU
System: West coast road teams have had ATS success on the east coast over the last few seasons.
Matches: DEN, LAC, LVR
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System: This system works off of Pythagorean +/- and underdogs. Pythagorean +/- measures how much a team is overperforming or underperforming as compared to their pythagorean win-loss record.
Matches: JAC, CLE
System: Hate to say it. Betting big home dogs early in the season have been profitable. And here is Carolina.
Matches: CAR
