Whether you're playing pick'em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.
Let's quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 9 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.
Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
NFL Week 9 Pick 'Em Confidence Ratings Methodology
These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.
To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the "true" odds are for every matchup.
In theory, sportsbooks' lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).
Now let's start with my straight-up ratings for Week 9 then wrap it up with ATS.
Straight-Up Confidence Ratings
1. Bills
Matchup: vs. WAS
Confidence Rating: 80.8%
2. 49ers
Matchup: @ ARI
Confidence Rating: 79.6%
3. Seahawks
Matchup: vs. TB
Confidence Rating: 72.9%
4. Cowboys
Matchup: @ NYG
Confidence Rating: 71.4%
5. Jets
Matchup: @ MIA
Confidence Rating: 66.8%
T-6. Vikings
Matchup: @ KC
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
T-6. Patriots
Matchup: @ BAL
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
T-6. Eagles
Matchup: vs. CHI
Confidence Rating: 63.6%
9. Panthers
Matchup: vs. TEN
Confidence Rating: 60.3%
10. Packers
Matchup: @ LAC
Confidence Rating: 58.6%
T-11. Texans
Matchup: @ JAX
Confidence Rating: 56.9%
T-11. Browns
Matchup: @ DEN
Confidence Rating: 56.9%
13. Raiders
Matchup: vs. DET
Confidence Rating: 55.2%
14. Colts
Matchup: @ PIT
Confidence Rating: 51.7%
15. Steelers
Matchup: vs. IND
Confidence Rating: 48.3%
16. Lions
Matchup: @ OAK
Confidence Rating: 44.8%
T-17. Jaguars
Matchup: vs. HOU
Confidence Rating: 43.1%
T-17. Broncos
Matchup: vs. CLE
Confidence Rating: 43.1%
19. Chargers
Matchup: vs. GB
Confidence Rating: 41.4%
20. Titans
Matchup: @ CAR
Confidence Rating: 39.7%
T-21. Bears
Matchup: @ PHI
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
T-21. Chiefs
Matchup: vs. MIN
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
T-21. Ravens
Matchup: vs. NE
Confidence Rating: 36.4%
24. Dolphins
Matchup: vs. NYJ
Confidence Rating: 33.2%
25. Giants
Matchup: vs. DAL
Confidence Rating: 28.6%
26. Buccaneers
Matchup: @ SEA
Confidence Rating: 27.1%
27. Cardinals
Matchup: vs. SF
Confidence Rating: 20.4%
28. Redskins
Matchup: @ BUF
Confidence Rating: 19.2%
Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings
Against the Spread Confidence Ratings
I've outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.
1. Broncos
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. CLE
T-2. Seahawks
Spread: -6
Opponent: vs. TB
T-2. Chargers
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. GB
T-2. Titans
Spread: +4
Opponent: @ CAR
T-2. Bears
Spread: +5
Opponent: @ PHI
T-2. Giants
Spread: +7.5
Opponent: vs. DAL
T-7. Jets
Spread: -3
Opponent: @ MIA
T-7. Vikings
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ KC
T-7. Patriots
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ BAL
T-7. Texans
Spread: -1.5
Opponent: @ JAX
T-7. Lions
Spread: +2
Opponent: @ OAK
T-7. Cardinals
Spread: +10
Opponent: vs. SF
T-7. Colts
Spread: +1
Opponent: @ PIT
T-13. Bills
Spread: -10
Opponent: vs. WAS
T-13. Redskins
Spread: +10
Opponent: @ BUF
T-13. Steelers
Spread: -1
Opponent: vs. IND
T-17. 49ers
Spread: -10
Opponent: @ ARI
T-17. Raiders
Spread: -2
Opponent: vs. DET
T-17. Jaguars
Spread: +1.5
Opponent: vs. HOU
T-17. Chiefs
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. MIN
T-17. Ravens
Spread: +3.5
Opponent: vs. NE
T-17. Dolphins
Spread: +3
Opponent: vs. NYJ
T-23. Cowboys
Spread: -7.5
Opponent: @ NYG
T-23. Eagles
Spread: -5
Opponent: vs. CHI
T-23. Panthers
Spread: -4
Opponent: vs. TEN
T-23. Packers
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ LAC
T-23. Buccaneers
Spread: +6
Opponent: @ SEA
28. Browns
Spread: -3.5
Opponent: @ DEN
Custom Confidence Ratings
Your league might be using different odds, in which case,you'll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.
Note that you'll want to make sure to add the "-" in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.
Here's an example of what the sheet looks like:
