For my NFL picks this week, I'm on three underdogs and an under for this week.
I'm not sold by the Falcons (specifically Kirk Cousins) and am fading them in Atlanta, and I'm on board the Jameis Winston train in Cleveland. Then, it's off to Philadelphia to bet a specific under for Jaguars vs. Eagles before we fade the Rams in an important division battle.
Let's get to my NFL predictions for the week. Get my picks immediately throughout the week by downloading the Action App.
Let's get this shmoney!
NFL Week 9 Predictions
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Cowboys vs. Falcons Pick Against the Spread
The Cowboys are still not at full strength defensively, but they still blitz at a top-10 rate and rank in the top five in pressure rate (28.2%). They’re also not the Buccaneers, who have a pressure rate 5.9 points lower than Dallas and failed to generate a pulse against Kirk Cousins.
- Cousins vs. Tampa Bay (two games): 392.5 yards/game, 8 TDs, 1 INT, 2 sacks
- Cousins vs. everyone else (six games): 220.2 yards/game, 6 TDs, 6 INT, 13 sacks
Since Week 5, the Falcons have gotten fat playing the Bucs defense twice with the god-awful Panthers mixed in. The Cowboys, though, played the Steelers, Lions and 49ers, three of the NFL’s best teams and highest-pressure defense. Now, Dallas faces a Falcons defense that ranks last in sack rate (2.2%) and 30th in pressure rate (15.1%). From a clean pocket compared to under pressure, Prescott’s completion percentage is 13.8 points higher and he's averaging 1.1 more yards per attempt this season.
Per our Action Labs data, the Cowboys are 11-5 (69%) against the spread (ATS) in Dak Prescott’s starts on the road coming off a loss, and 14-7 (67%) ATS on the road coming off a loss under Mike McCarthy.
Bet to: +2
Pick: Cowboys +3 (-105)
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Chargers vs. Browns Prediction
Last week I mentioned how the quarterback change from Deshaun Watson to Jameis Winston alone makes the Browns a different team – one that a lot more closely resembles the one that made the playoffs last season.
To put some numbers to that: Of the 41 quarterbacks that have dropped back as much or more than Winston (64), he ranks first in Adjusted Expected Points Added per Dropback (0.362). Watson ranks 39th (-0.222). Opposing quarterback Justin Herbert is in middle of the pack in 21st (0.096).
While the Chargers are a quality defense, a couple of things are still working in Winston’s favor here.
1) This is the healthiest the Browns offensive line has been all season. Right tackle Jack Conklin, who hasn’t allowed a sack in 114 pass-blocking snaps, will make his fourth start of the season. All-Pro right guard Wyatt Teller is off the injury report completely after returning from a four-game absence last week. Left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr., who missed last week and three other games with a knee injury, is also off the injury report for the first time all season.
2) The Chargers haven’t generated much pressure. The Chargers are 31st in pressure rate (14.8%). Against pressure, Winston has thrown for 5.2 yards per attempt with a 60.9 passer rating. From a clean pocket, that rises to 8.4 yards per attempt and a 122.3 rating.
Then, on the other side of the ball, the Chargers offense ranks 25th in the league at 18.9 points per game. With Greg Roman at the helm, this attack is predicated on the run, but J.K. Dobbins has cooled off after a hot start, going from 9.9 yards per carry on 27 carries over his first two games to 3.2 on 85 totes in five games since. The Browns are fresh off holding the Ravens offense that was averaging 210.9 yards per game to a season-low 124 last week.
Per our Action Labs data, WInston is 8-19-1 (30%) ATS as a favorite, but 27-23-3 (54%) ATS as a ‘dog, including 4-1 over the past three seasons.
Bet to: Pick’em
Pick: Browns +1.5 (-110)
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Jaguars vs. Eagles Over/Under Pick
The Eagles offense has developed a pattern of using the first few drives to feel out the defense and set up plays for later in the game. It has resulted in averages of 0.0 first-quarter points (32nd), 9.3 first-half points (22nd) and 15.1 second-half points (tied for first).
The Eagles are still down left tackle Jordan Mailata, who they miss especially in pass protection. Mailata’s 90.4 Pro Football Focus pass-blocking grade ranks second-best of 74 qualified tackles while replacement Fred Johnson’s 39.4 mark ranks fourth-worst. With tight end Dallas Goedert (hamstring) still out, the Eagles have had to shift to more of a run-heavy game plan. The Jaguars have defended the run well, clocking in 11th in DVOA.
The Jaguars are also down their best left tackle after trading Cam Robinson to the Vikings. Robinson’s replacement Walker Little has graded out poorly (58.3). The interior line is also banged up for Jacksonville, with left guard Ezra Cleveland (ankle) already ruled out and right guard Brandon Scherff (ankle) listed as questionable after practicing only once this week.
Trevor Lawrence also won’t be working with a full deck at receiver. Christian Kirk (collarbone) is done for the season, while Brian Thomas Jr. (chest) and Gabe Davis (shoulder) are both questionable. Meanwhile, the Eagles rookie corners have been playing well. First-round pick Quinyon Mithcell is allowing a 55.9% completion rate and 79.8 passer rating on 34 targets. Second-rounder Cooper DeJean has allowed only 61 yards on 97 snaps in coverage.
Per our Action Labs data, Eagles first-half unders are 5-2 (71%) this season, covering by 2.6 points per game.
Bet to: 21.5
Pick: 1H Under 23.5 (-115)
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Rams vs. Seahawks: Bet This Home Underdog
The Seahawks are 16th in overall DVOA and the Rams are 21st. The Seahawks are healthier on defense and the Rams are healthier on offense than their full-season metrics imply, which cancel out, but let’s say both teams are equal since the Seahawks will once again be without No. 1 receiver D.K. Metcalf (MCL). If that’s the case, the Seahawks should still be favored at home.
The absence of Metcalf hurts, but it’s less of an issue this week against a Rams pass defense that ranks 27th in DVOA than last week against the Bills' top-10 unit.
By the same token. A Seattle defense that ranks seventh in pressure rate (27.1%) can be a much bigger factor this week against the statuesque Matthew Stafford than it was last week against a scrambler like Josh Allen.
The Friday downgrade of Puka Nacua (knee) to a DNP is also concerning for the Rams offense after a 10-day lay-off and suggests he may have rushed back too soon.
Per our Action Labs data, the Rams are just 12-25 (34%) ATS coming off a multi-game win streak, failing to cover by 4.0 points per game.
Bet to: -1
Pick: Seahawks +1.5 (-110)
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