Every Sunday night, I'll reveal bets I'd recommend for the following week of the NFL season. Lines move quickly, so it's important that you make your NFL predictions as quickly as possible.
Here are the NFL picks I made before recording the recap episode of "The Action Network Podcast" on Sunday night.
NFL Week 9 Picks
Patriots vs. Titans: Bet the Under on Low Total
Drake Maye left the Patriots' win over the Jets on Sunday with concussion-like symptoms, so this is likely going to be Jacoby Brissett. On the other side, it could still be Mason Rudolph instead of Will Levis.
If it is Brissett and Rudolph, that makes each offense more predictable, less explosive and less prone to mistakes. Patriots games started by Brissett this season are averaging fewer than 33 points per game, while Maye-started games are over 52.
You shouldn't be fooled by the 52 points that the Titans allowed to the Lions. The Tennessee defense has been around a top-10 unit in the NFL all season. It's allowing 38.7 points per game to elite offenses in the Packers, Bills and Lions but just 20 to others.
The Patriots average 15.5 points per game, and the Titans scored 17 or fewer points in all but one of their wins.
Also of note, the Titans are 5-2 to the first-half under this season, while the Patriots are 6-2 to the second-half under.
This is already 38 and even 37.5, so use our NFL odds page to grab 39 if you can on Sunday night or Monday morning. That's where it was at DraftKings as of 1 a.m. ET on Monday.
Chargers vs. Browns: This Over/Under Is Too High
This season, the Chargers are playing a brand of football that resembles what we would've seen in the 1950s. They still haven't played a game that has seen 40 total points scored.
Despite that fact, this total went up from 39 to 40 or even 41 at some sportsbooks after Sunday.
The Browns offense looked better with Jameis Winston under center, no doubt about it. Winston, though, is prone to mistakes.
This is also a matchup of defense-first teams. The Chargers are allowing 13 points per game, while the Browns defense has allowed 21 or fewer points in all but two games. The Browns defense is improving and will no doubt benefit from an improved offense.
These teams are a combined 11-5 to the under this season, and the Chargers have gone under this number in every game they've played.
Games with totals between 39-45 points that drop from the lookahead line (this was 42) are 55% to the under. Also, Jim Harbaugh-coached games with a total below 44 are 29-20 (59%) to the under.
This was 39 on Sunday morning, and 40 and 41 are key numbers for totals. Grab 41 if you can.
