Another NFL Sunday is here. It’s hard to believe we’ve hit the season's halfway point.
If you want to add an extra edge to your card this Sunday, check out props at PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states, including some states where online betting access remains unavailable.
Here are the three PrizePicks props I’d consider playing this weekend.
Josh Jacobs
3.0 Receptions
Jacobs seems to be less involved in the Raider offense recently. He was on the field for 32 of a possible 58 snaps last week, a season-low 55%. This is only three weeks after playing 67 of a possible 75 snaps against Denver.
You could target unders for several player props, but our Action Labs Player Props Tool shows the most significant edge on his receptions prop.
As expected, Josh Jacobs’ involvement in the passing game has also decreased week-over-week. He got six targets in Weeks 3 and 4, then five in Week 5, and four in Weeks 7 and 8. If you disregard his first two games, Jacobs received a season-low 10.6% Target Market Share in his last game.
If this trend continues, Jacobs will be overvalued in the coming weeks. So, I’m happy to start fading him in this matchup.
Our Action Labs projections mark Jacobs for only 2.5 receptions on Sunday afternoon, giving us a solid enough edge to take the under.
Pick: Under 3.0 receptions
Trevor Lawrence
22.5 Completions
It looks like Trevor Lawrence is trending down.
After a stellar first three weeks, Lawrence has completed just 57% of his passes with four touchdowns and five interceptions. In addition, he’s been one of the least efficient quarterbacks in the NFL since Week 4 by EPA+CPOE composite (minimum 100 plays).
As expected, Lawrence has fallen under 22.5 completions in four of his last five games, including the last three.
It’s a good matchup for Lawrence, given that the Raiders have such a horrific defense. But we still project value on the under. Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Lawrence for just 21.2 completions on Sunday.
I think Lawrence is still worth fading, given how horrifically inefficient he’s been passing the ball.
Pick: Under 22.5 completions
Justin Fields
8.5 Rush Attempts
Matt Eberflus has found something with Fields offensively. Chicago's offense has been trending upward, having posted its three highest yardage totals of the season over the last three weeks.
Specifically, the Bears have been running through teams. Chicago has averaged 240 rushing yards per game during this three-week stretch, looking more like a triple-option service academy attack than a pro-style NFL team.
Chicago Bears last 3 games:
WSH: 237 rushing yards on 6.4 ypc
NE: 243 rushing yards on 5.4 ypc
DAL: 240 rushing yards on 5.6 ypcCowboys run defense was bad yesterday, but the Bears have figure their offense out. They are a force in the run game.
— Massey ✭ ✌🏻 (@TheJAMassey) October 31, 2022
I mention a triple-option attack because Fields has been very involved on the ground. He’s picked up 180 yards rushing over the last two weeks on a combined 26 attempts. He’s had at least eight rushing attempts in every game this season, and his rushing usage is trending upwards.
I’m expecting Eberflus to continue using Fields this Sunday against Miami.
Moreover, Fields should scramble a few times on passing plays, given Miami blitzes at a top-10 rate and just picked up an elite pass rusher in Bradley Chubb.
If Lamar Jackson picked up nine rushing attempts against Miami, Fields could easily eclipse that with the Bears' recent offensive game plan.
Our Action Labs Player Props tool projects Fields for over 10 rushing attempts against the Dolphins, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that undersells how many times Fields takes off and runs on Sunday.
Pick: Over 8.5 rush attempts
