We’re almost at the midway point of the regular season, meaning we have strong data on every team. Unfortunately, injuries continue to be a significant part of the handicapping process and quarterback uncertainty is a factor in a couple of games this week.
This week features a handful of critical divisional matchups, a fascinating battle between former No. 1 overall picks in the desert and three primetime matchups between playoff hopefuls.
Let’s dive into the Week 9 slate for my NFL predictions.
NFL Week 9 Picks
| Category |
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| Thursday Night Football |
| Passes |
| Leans |
| NFL Week 9 Predictions |
NFL Thursday Night Football
Texans vs. Jets
The New York Jets are in freefall mode after a shocking loss to the Patriots, and there’s a long list of things going wrong for this team. One massive factor has been an underwhelming offensive line that was expected to improve significantly after the offseason. The Jets rank 30th in adjusted line yards and have struggled to generate a push in the run game, and the Texans have a stout front that ranks second in run-stop win rate.
The Jets rank 24th in pass-block win rate and have been unable to protect Aaron Rodgers, who is clearly not healthy. Rodgers is dealing with knee and hamstring issues, and he had an ankle sprain earlier in the season. After the game on Sunday, Patriots defensive tackle Davon Godchaux said, “he can’t move back there … he doesn’t look mobile at all.” The Texans will exacerbate that issue with a pass rush that ranks fourth in pressure rate.
Meanwhile, I suspect this could be a challenging game for the Texans' offense. C.J. Stroud struggled against this Jets defense last year, completing 10-of-23 passes for 91 yards and taking four sacks — and that was with Nico Collins in the lineup. Now, Houston is without Collins and Stefon Diggs, who suffered a season-ending knee injury.
The Texans already rank 29th in early down offensive success rate, and that was with Collins and Diggs for most of the season. With Joe Mixon now healthy, Houston should be able to run the ball, but that will keep the clock churning. I don’t see Stroud finding many explosives through the air against a defense that ranks fourth in coverage grades and sixth in pressure rate.
Depending on the forecast, this game could trigger an Action Pro system for windy unders. The under has gone 610-468-9 (57%) in games with 10+ mph winds, good for a 9% ROI. Regardless of the weather, I don’t expect a high-scoring affair on the short week and am taking the under here.
Verdict: Bet Under 42.5 Points
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NFL Passes
Raiders vs. Bengals
The Bengals’ lack of a pass rush reared its ugly head again last week as they struggled to take advantage of a Philadelphia offensive line missing multiple starters. Cincinnati ranks 25th in defensive DVOA, and while the Raiders certainly don’t have an explosive offense, I wouldn’t be shocked if Gardner Minshew finds some success on the road.
Joe Burrow continues to have an incredible season. He’s PFF’s highest-graded passer and ranks top five in both EPA+CPOE and adjusted completion rate. He should have his way with a Raiders secondary that ranks last in PFF’s coverage grades, especially if Tee Higgins can return to the lineup.
I don’t hate the Bengals as a teaser leg, but I’ll keep a close eye on Chase Brown’s player props to see where they open. The Bengals used Zack Moss more often last week as the better pass-blocking back as they found themselves in a severe trailing game script, but there’s no question that Brown is the more explosive runner and more dynamic early down threat.
Verdict: Pass
Patriots vs. Titans
Drake Maye looked set for a big game against the Jets’ defense last week before suffering an unfortunate concussion, and we’ll have to wait and see what his status if for this week. The Titans are also dealing with some injury uncertainty as Will Levis could be set to make his return from a shoulder injury.
The best unit on the field in this matchup will be the Titans’ defense. Don’t be fooled by the Lions’ offensive explosion last week — Tennessee ranks ninth in defensive DVOA. However, it’s tough to have much of an opinion on this game from a side or total perspective until we know who will be starting at quarterback for both teams.
Verdict: Pass
Dolphins vs. Bills
With Tua Tagovailoa returning to the lineup, the Miami Dolphins season was on the line last week. They had a nine-point lead in the fourth quarter and, according to ESPN Analytics, sported an 88% win expectancy. However, Kyler Murray rallied the Cardinals to a win, sending the Dolphins to 2-5. At this point, I’ve lost whatever patience I had left for Mike McDaniel as a head coach.
Miami’s defense has been especially underwhelming after losing Vic Fangio, and the Dolphins rank 27th in defensive DVOA. With a cadre of talented pass catchers, including breakout rookie Keon Coleman, I expect Josh Allen to take full advantage of this defense. James Cook should also be in for a huge game on the ground against a defense that ranks 26th in second-level rushing yards allowed.
Tagovailoa made a successful, healthy return last week, but it doesn’t get any softer than a matchup against the Cardinals, who rank last in pass rush win rate this season. Buffalo will make Tagovailoa's life much more difficult this week, and Sean McDermott has consistently had strong game plans for Tagovailoa in recent years.
I’m not rushing to lay the number as the spread looks about right to me, but if the spread hits 7, I’d be interested in the Bills as a Wong teaser piece.
Verdict: Pass
Commanders vs. Giants
Despite the market indicating it expected Jayden Daniels to miss last week’s game, Daniels returned triumphantly to the lineup and capped off a Commanders win with a Hail Mary touchdown that will live in infamy. The Commanders continue to be a team on the rise thanks to excellent coaching on both sides and young talent stepping up across the board.
The Giants' defensive line is one of the best in the NFL, but their secondary showed plenty of cracks as Russell Wilson beat them deep several times on Monday night. The last time these teams met, the Commanders posted over 400 yards of offense, but had to settle for seven field goals. I wouldn’t expect the Giants to get as lucky with red-zone stops this time.
Verdict: Pass
Bears vs. Cardinals
Chicago probably deserved to lose Sunday, but it couldn’t have been a more Bears-style loss if it tried. Matt Eberflus has repeatedly proven that he’s an excellent defensive coach, but with his routinely poor in-game decision-making, he’s overmatched as a head coach. Eberflus failed to take accountability after the loss and players were openly critical.
Kevin Byard said he would have handled defensive coverage on Washington’s Hail Mary differently and D.J. Moore said he was shocked the team called a goal-line handoff to a backup offensive lineman in a real game. It’s fair to wonder where this team is mentally, while it's also dealing with critical injuries on the offensive line and defense.
Meanwhile, the Cardinals are riding high after stealing a win over the Dolphins on the road, but their defense remains a real weakness. Arizona ranks last in pass rush win rate, which should allow Caleb Williams much more time in the pocket than he was afforded last week.
I don’t have a strong take on this game early in the week, and I’d recommend waiting on the statuses of key players like left tackle Braxton Jones and edge rusher Montez Sweat before pulling the trigger on anything here.
Verdict: Pass
Buccaneers vs. Chiefs
Even with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin out, the Buccaneers still went with a heavy 69% pass play rate on early downs last week. A similar approach is likely necessary here, as the Chiefs rank second against the run by DVOA. However, Baker Mayfield won’t maintain his impressive efficiency without his top receivers, especially against an aggressive Steve Spagnuolo defense.
The Chiefs’ addition of DeAndre Hopkins should start to pay off more this week after his snap share was limited last week, and rookie Xavier Worthy is beginning to take on more of a role in the offense. With Travis Kelce seemingly waking up from hibernation last week and JuJu Smith-Schuster potentially returning from injury, this offensive skill group isn’t quite as battered as it looked a couple of weeks ago.
I don’t hate a play on the Chiefs’ team total over against a Buccaneers defense that ranks just 27th in success rate, but there’s not a ton I’m rushing to bet in this matchup. I’ll likely attack this game in the player prop markets instead.
Verdict: Pass
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NFL Week 9 Preview: My Leans
Cowboys vs. Falcons
I expected a better effort from the Cowboys after the bye week. Still, Dak Prescott continued to look overwhelmed and made a few horrible mistakes as he threw into double coverage on Sunday. With a nonexistent run game, the offense rests squarely on his shoulders. He’ll at least have time in the pocket in this game as the Falcons rank 30th in pressure rate.
Atlanta’s offense could catch a break depending on the statuses of Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland, both of whom missed another game last week. Dallas ranks 29th in defensive DVOA and clearly misses Dan Quinn, who is elevating Washington's defense despite an underwhelming talent base.
Dallas has slipped to 26th in pass-rush win rate without Parsons, and Kirk Cousins has been lights out from a clean pocket with 10 touchdowns to just one interception. With Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier in tow against a Cowboys run defense that has been gashed, Atlanta should have no problem putting up points in bunches.
Verdict: Lean Falcons Team Total Over 27.5
Rams vs. Seahawks
The market has shown strong support for the Rams early in the week as they’ve flipped from an underdog to a favorite on the road in this pivotal NFC West matchup. The Seahawks offense looked broken last week, but help could be on the way. Hopefully, star wide receiver D.K. Metcalf will return after his one-game absence and right tackle Abraham Lucas is back at practice. However, the Seahawks could play it safe with both with the bye week on the horizon.
The Rams' getting Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua back in the lineup makes a world of difference, and I expect Sean McVay to have a strong game plan against a defense that has the most variance in the league this year by DVOA. Mike Macdonald is an excellent defensive coach, but injuries and personnel inconsistencies have created issues, especially in the front seven.
This game presents several intriguing opportunities for player props, but I’m not rushing to bet a side or total. I lean toward the Seahawks as a home underdog, but I’ll wait to learn more about Metcalf and Lucas' statuses.
Verdict: Lean Seahawks +1.5
Colts vs. Vikings
The Colts made the highly questionable decision to pull the plug on Anthony Richardson with just 10 career starts under his belt. Shane Steichen was likely facing internal pressure from ownership and team veterans, especially after Richardson pulled himself out of the game for a play. However, Richardson still possesses tantalizing upside, and I don’t think his game last week was nearly as bad as most media talking heads would lead you to believe.
Nevertheless, this is Joe Flacco’s offense now, and the Colts will throw him to the wolves against a Brian Flores defense that will dial up the blitz. Flacco has averaged just 4.4 yards per attempt and a 55.2% adjusted completion rate against the blitz this year, both of which rank 38th out of 39 qualified quarterbacks. His lack of mobility could be a real issue here.
The Colts aren’t dead in the water, and the return of a healthy Jonathan Taylor is massive for the offense’s down-to-down stability. According to FTN, the Vikings rank 16th in defensive line yards and 19th in second-level yards, so Taylor should find some success on the ground.
Indianapolis’ defense has been playing better lately, especially with DeForest Buckner returning on the defensive line. Justin Jefferson should cook against this secondary, but can Minnesota keep Sam Darnold upright? This week, the Vikings traded for Cam Robinson to help replace star left tackle Christian Darrisaw, who suffered a season-ending knee injury, but there should still be a drop-off at that position.
The spread is sitting in a dead zone, but I lean toward the Colts. Flacco has undoubtedly been more efficient this season than Richardson, ranking seventh in EPA+CPOE out of 42 qualifiers (Richardson ranks last). With a healthy Taylor and improving defense, the Colts can make this a game on Sunday night.
Verdict: Lean Colts +5.5
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NFL Picks for Week 9
Broncos vs. Ravens
The Broncos have won five of their past six games, but have played the second-easiest schedule in the league by DVOA and Sunday’s matchup against a hungry Ravens team looking to bounce back after a loss represents a significant step up in weight class.
Denver will have real problems running the ball against Baltimore, which ranks second in defensive line yards allowed to running backs. The Ravens’ pass defense has been much more vulnerable, but Bo Nix is the worst quarterback they’ve seen all season by EPA+CPOE. With a limited group of wide receivers, the Broncos’ pass game isn’t built to exploit the deficiencies in the Ravens’ secondary, especially if Marlon Humphrey and Nate Wiggins can return.
Meanwhile, the Broncos defense has been excellent under the stewardship of Vance Joseph, but has faced the fifth-easiest schedule of opposing offenses by DVOA. Denver ranks second in blitz rate this season and often leaves its corners on an island, but Lamar Jackson is PFF’s second-highest-graded quarterback against the blitz this season. He ranks third among qualifiers with 9.7 yards per attempt against the blitz.
Sean Payton may adjust as the game progresses and find ways to keep Denver in the contest, but I expect Baltimore to punch the Broncos in the mouth in the first half. Jackson is 54-29-2 ATS (65%) in the first half in his career, making him the best first-half quarterback ATS in NFL history. This is a strong spot to back the Ravens, who should see the Broncos as a significant reprieve.
Verdict: Bet Ravens 1H -6
Chargers vs. Browns
Quietly, Justin Herbert is playing as well as any quarterback in the league over the past few weeks. The Chargers have ramped up their passing rate as Herbert has gotten healthy, and he’s averaging 8.3 yards per attempt since the team’s bye week compared to 6.4 before. According to PFF, he also has nine big-time throws to zero turnover-worthy plays over the past two weeks.
Since Week 6, the Chargers rank 16th in EPA/play, which is a significant improvement from ranking 23rd over the first four weeks. Cleveland’s biggest strength is its pass rush with Myles Garrett — it ranks third in pass-rush win rate — but Los Angeles has arguably the best tackle duo in the league with Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt. Cleveland ranks just 21st against the pass by DVOA, showing cracks in the armor when the pass rush isn’t getting home.
Meanwhile, I’ve significantly upgraded the Browns’ offense over the past two weeks. Jameis Winston is undoubtedly an upgrade over Deshaun Watson. Perhaps even more importantly, the Browns’ offensive line is healthy now. Jack Conklin looks 100% at right tackle, Wyatt Teller returned to the lineup last week and Dawand Jones played well at left tackle instead of Jedrick Wills.
The return of Nick Chubb provides another boost for the offense in the form of stability in the run game. Finally, the Browns also moved play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey last week and noticed an immediate improvement. I’m still not fully sold on the Chargers’ defense, either. They rank eighth in defensive DVOA, but have faced the second-easiest schedule of opposing offenses.
I believe the offenses are undervalued in this game and think we could see a sneaky shootout in Cleveland. I’m taking the over in this AFC matchup.
Verdict: Bet Over 42 Points
Saints vs. Panthers
The Saints expect to get Derek Carr back this week after he missed time with an oblique injury, and he provides a massive upgrade for the offense. Carr was thriving in Klint Kubiak’s offense before his injury, ranking top five in EPA+CPOE, adjusted completion rate and PFF passing grades. We saw a healthy Carr torch the Panthers for 47 points in Week 1, including 30 points in the first half.
That’s been a common theme for the Panthers this season, whose defense has repeatedly been burned early and often in games. Carolina has allowed 14+ points in the first half of all but one game this season and is averaging 21.9 points per game allowed in the opening two quarters. The Panthers rank 31st in both pass and run defense DVOA this season.
This isn’t an overly complicated handicap as I’m simply betting on the Panthers to do what they’ve done nearly every week this season — bleed first-half points, especially now that Carr is healthy. Keep an eye out for Chris Olave’s player props, as I believe the star receiver could be in for a massive game.
Verdict: Bet Saints 1H Team Total Over 13.5
Jaguars vs. Eagles
The Jaguars’ offense must be downgraded significantly after last week, as Christian Kirk suffered a season-ending injury while standout rookie Brian Thomas Jr. is questionable with a chest injury. With Gabe Davis also picking up an injury, Jacksonville will be very shorthanded at receiver against an Eagles defense that’s on the rise.
Philadelphia has figured things out on defense as the season has gone on, and the play of rookie defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean has been a big reason why. The Eagles’ pass rush is still playing at a below-average level, but this could be a game where they ratchet up the pressure against a Jaguars offensive line that just traded away left tackle Cam Robinson to the Vikings.
Jacksonville’s defense ranks last in DVOA, but they’ve been unlucky in allowing a high rate of explosive plays through the air. On a down-to-down basis, they’ve been solid, ranking 13th in early down success rate allowed. Crucially, they also rank fifth in early down rushing success rate allowed, which is massively important against an Eagles offense that’s the most run-heavy unit in the NFL when playing with a lead.
According to Nick Giffen’s model, this is also a luck under, giving us an extra boost on the total. With the Eagles content to bleed clock with the run game and the Jaguars likely unable to generate explosive production through the air with their limited receiving corps, I’ll back the under in this game.
Verdict: Bet Under 46 Points
Lions vs. Packers
The Detroit Lions have been lighting the league on fire in recent weeks, most recently beating the Titans 52-14. That game was wacky for several reasons. It was the second-fewest yards a team has gained in a 50+ point outing in NFL history. It was also the first time in NFL history a team has won by 30+ points, but been outgained by at least 150 yards.
Jared Goff will be playing outdoors for the first time all season, and the conditions in Green Bay on Sunday could be adverse, with wind and rain in the forecast. More importantly, I’ve been super impressed with new Packers defensive coordinator Jeff Hafley, who has ramped up the aggressiveness for Green Bay. The Packers have forced 19 turnovers in eight games after having 18 all of last year.
I’m still suspicious of this Lions' defense without Aidan Hutchinson, who was the runaway favorite for Defensive Player of the Year before suffering a gruesome season-ending leg injury. The Packers rank second in PFF’s pass-blocking grades. I’m not sure Detroit can generate sufficient pressure without aggressive blitzing, leaving its secondary more vulnerable on the back end.
Of course, Jordan Love’s injury is a factor in the line for this game. He hasn’t quite been 100% all season after suffering a knee injury in Week 1, and he left last week’s game with a strained groin. However, given the critical nature of this home divisional game, I fully expect him to play on Sunday. Frankly, though, I don’t think all hope would be lost with Malik Willis. Out of 42 qualified QBs, he ranks first in EPA+CPOE this season, albeit in a limited sample size.
I’ll always be stoked to bet on Matt LaFleur as an underdog, especially at home. He’s gone 24-11 ATS as an underdog (69%), covering by over four points per game. Out of principle, I have to trust the spot and take the Packers over the key number.
Verdict: Bet Packers +3.5
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