The 14-team bracket is set and the NFL playoffs are upon us. This year we have three preseason longshots into the field, we have two rookie QBs trying to get wins on the road and both MVP candidates battling it out in home games.
Let's look at this week's slate and go over the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know. Here's the Wild Card round of Action Network's weekly NFL betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Tuesday, Jan. 7, at 12 p.m. ET.
Top NFL Things To Know
Big Ticket
Three Left
The Broncos (150-1), Commanders (150-1) and Vikings (100-1) are the 32nd, 33rd and 34th teams to enter the playoffs with 100-1 odds or higher entering the season since the schedule moved to 16+ games in 1978.
This is the 3rd playoffs where three different teams at 100-1 odds or higher in the preseason made it – 2024, 2022, 2017. Among this teams, 3 of 6 lost in the Wild Card Round, two in the Divisional Round, and one (the 2017 Jaguars) reach the Conference Championship. Here is how teams with preseason odds of 100-1 or higher have performed in the playoffs historically:
One team won the Super Bowl: 1999 Rams
One team lost in the Super Bowl: 2021 Bengals
Three teams lost in Conference Championship: 2017 Jaguars, 1983 Seahawks, 1979 Buccaneers
Ten lost in the Divisional Round
Sixteen Lost in Wild Card Round
Need A Win
Long Losing Streak
If the Steelers close as +9.5-point underdogs or higher, it would be their biggest underdog ever vs. the Ravens, who came into the NFL in 1996. Under Mike Tomlin, the Steelers are just 3-14 SU and 7-9-1 ATS as an underdog of 7 pts or more. As a dog of 8 pts or more, Tomlin is just 1-8 SU with the Steelers, his only win coming in 2022 vs. Bucs.
Steelers haven’t won or covered a playoff game since 2016-17, a 5-game SU/ATS playoff losing streak for Pittsburgh — their longest in franchise history.
Dog Eat Dog
Turn Around?
We are just coming off a regular season to remember for favorites. The best ATS season from a profit/ROI POV since 2017. Overall, favorites ended 2024 195-77 SU (71.7%), the 3rd-best season since 1980.
Let's talk dogs in the playoffs. Since 2017, they are 52-34 ATS (61%) for a 17% ROI. In the Wild Card round, those playoff underdogs are 24-12 ATS (67%) for a 30% ROI, best of any round in that span.
A few trends for the playoffs…
• Underdogs who missed the playoffs the year prior are 39-20 ATS since 2017 (WAS & DEN).
• Teams that become smaller underdogs (+4 to +3) have gone 45-20-2 (69%) ATS over the last 20 years, including 55-12 (82%) in 6-pt teasers (LAR).
• Double-digit underdogs are 5-13 ATS in the playoffs since 2011.
• In the last 20 years, teams with a 75%+ win percentage are 74-95-3 ATS (44%) in the playoffs, including 55-75-2 ATS (42%) when listed as the favorite (PHI, BUF & MIN).
Winter of Sam
Vikings Come Out Of Nowhere
Vikings are 14-3 SU and entered the season with 100-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Since we transitioned to a 16-game schedule in 1978, only one team has won 13+ games after entering a season with 100-1 odds or higher to win it all – the 1999 Rams, who won the Super Bowl.
The North Remembers
Playoff Time
The NFC North finishes up the regular season 33-11 SU and 30-14 ATS against teams outside the division this season. That is the best ATS win pct for any division since the NFC West in 2013 and the 2nd-best SU win pct since 1990, also behind that 2013 NFC West.
Opening Act
Rocky Start
This weekend we have some first time playoff quarterbacks in action. QBs making their first playoff start vs QBs who have playoff experience are 19-37-1 ATS (34%) and 19-38 SU since 2002. When those less experienced QBs play on the road, they are 11-21 SU and 12-19-1 ATS>
Would apply to three games this weekend:
Bo Nix at Josh Allen
Jayden Daniels at Baker Mayfield
Sam Darnold at Matthew Stafford
Two Face
Lamar's Different Sides
Lamar Jackson is the king of night games during the regular season. He is 20-5 SU (80%) at night, the best win pct of any QB min. 15 starts since the merger.
Lamar is 0-2 SU in night games during the playoffs, losing 17-3 on the road in Buffalo and 28-12 at home to the Titans.
Entering The Field
Stay Close
Since 2008, the eventual Super Bowl champion has at least come from the top-8 in Super Bowl odds entering the playoffs each year, including from the top-6 in each of the past 11 seasons. The last team to win outside the top-6 in odds entering the playoffs was the 2012 Ravens.
Here are the top-6 in odds this year: Lions, Chiefs, Ravens, Bills, Eagles and Vikings. 7th is the Packers and 8th is the Bucs.
Road Khakis
Chargers Third Straight Road Game
Chargers will be playing their third consecutive game on the road this week going from New England to Las Vegas to now Houston.
Since 2003, teams who are on the third game or later of any road trip are 45-71 SU (39%). These teams are 5-12 SU over the last three seasons.
When this game is played in the playoffs, that team is 11-27 SU (29%), .500 SU or worse in each of the last 19 seasons.
Ring Dogs
Experience Matters
Since 2003, Super Bowl-winning QBs are 61-24-2 ATS (72%) as an underdog in the playoffs. Those QBs are 25-8 ATS (76%) as a dog before winning the ring and 36-16-2 ATS (69%) after the ring — incl. 14-4 ATS since 2018 playoffs.
Every NFL Game For Wild Card Round
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Chargers Go Over Their Win Total After Long Drought
➤Entering this season, the Chargers win total was set at 9 and they finished with 11 wins going over the total for the first time since 2018 – a year-under streak, which was the longest in the NFL.
The longest active streak to the under entering 2025 belongs to the Bears, who have gone under their win total in four straight seasons.
Herbert's Dominance As A Road Favorite
➤Chargers are a road favorite against the Texans to open Wild Card weekend. Herbert in his career is 14-9 ATS as a road favorite, including 7-1 ATS in his last 8 games in that spot.
Herbert is also 12-4 ATS in his career as a road favorite playing in either the EST or CST.
Texans' Defense Brings Elite Metrics
➤The Texans bring a defense to this game that can match what L.A. has and could give the Chargers some issues. Houston is 6th in DVOA vs. #1 WRs, 12th vs. #2 WRs and they are 4th vs. TEs. Even from a EPA perspective, Houston’s defense is 7th in EPA/dropback and 2nd in dropback success rate. Not to mention, their rush defense is 2nd in adjusted line yards, too.
The Chargers have faced a few of the top defensive teams in dropback success rate and have done pretty well. Here they are vs. the top-10.
- Texans – face this week
- Broncos – 2-0 SU/ATS
- Browns – 1-0 SU/ATS
- Saints – 1-0 SU/ATS
- Ravens – 0-1 SU/ATS
Texans' Super Bowl Odds Make Historic Leap
➤The Texans entered this season at 16-1 odds to win it all. They started last season at 200-1. This was the third-biggest move for a team year-to-year to 20-1 or shorter to win it all.
For teams to move from 150-1 to 20-1 or shorter to win the Super Bowl in consecutive years (8 of them), Houston is the 4th to make the playoffs with the 1991 Cowboys, 2000 Rams and 2022 Bengals. None of the three made the Super Bowl.
Stroud's Betting Trends And Home ATS Success
➤C.J. Stroud has made 34 career starts in the NFL. He’s 9-6 ATS as an underdog and 7-12 ATS as a favorite in his pro career. As an underdog, Stroud is 12-3 in a 6-pt teaser.
Stroud has started 9 home games as either an underdog or a favorite of less than 3 points, he is 6-3 ATS in those games.
Stroud’s Challenge Against Top Defenses
➤The one issue for Stroud could be the Chargers defense. Stroud has started four games vs. a defense allowing under 18 PPG – where L.A. sits as the best PPG defense in the NFL – and Houston has averaged just 14 PPG in those matchups.
Stroud and Houston played this exact same role last year, closing as a 2-pt home underdog in the Wild Card round vs. the Browns and won 45-14.
Texans Dominate First Half ATS, Struggle In Second
➤Texans are 13-4 against the first half spread this season – DeMeco Ryans is 25-11 1H ATS, including 25-9 1H ATS with CJ Stroud at QB.
Houston was tied with Detroit for the best 1H ATS mark this season, but it’s worth noting the Chargers finished 3rd at 12-5 1H ATS.
Houston is also 4-13 against the second half spread, the 2nd-worst mark of any team in the NFL, ahead of the 49ers.
Short Rest Poses Challenges For Texans
➤Both the Texans and Chargers will play this game on short rest going from Sunday to Saturday.
Under DeMeco Ryans, Texans have played 5 games on short rest, they are 1-4 SU/ATS, going 0-4 SU/ATS this season in that spot. That is the most SU losses without a win for head coach this year.
On the other side, Jim Harbaugh and the Chargers are 3-0 SU/ATS this year on short rest.
Chargers Face Tough Odds In Extended Road Streak
➤Chargers will be playing their third consecutive game on the road this week going from New England to Las Vegas to now Houston.
Since 2003, teams who are on the third game or later of any road trip are 45-71 SU (39%). These teams are 5-12 SU over the last three seasons.
When this game is played in the playoffs, that team is 11-27 SU (29%), .500 SU or worse in each of the last 19 seasons.
Texans Home Unders
➤Home unders have been the trend for Houston lately. They are 7-1 this season, best mark in the NFL and 18-8 over the last three seasons, 2nd-best mark behind the Chiefs.
Historic Playoff Rivalry Renewed
➤The Steelers and Ravens will meet in the playoffs for the 5th time and the 4th time between Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh.
Baltimore won their last meeting in 2015, their first win or cover against Pittsburgh in the playoffs, now 1-3 SU/ATS all-time. This will be the first time the Steelers have to travel to Baltimore in a playoff game.
Steelers Face Unfamiliar Underdog Territory
➤The Steelers closed as a 7-pt underdog vs. Ravens in Week 16 and lost 34-17.
This would be the first time in the series the spread is 7 or more in either direction in consecutive meetings.
If the Steelers close at +9.5 or higher, it would be their biggest underdog ever vs. the Ravens, who came into the NFL in 1996.
Steelers Biggest Underdog vs. Ravens
2009, +9, L 20-17
2024, +7, L 34-17
2012, +7, W 23-20
As an underdog of 4 pts or more vs. Ravens, the Steelers are 8-1 ATS in franchise history. Under Tomlin, they are 6-1 ATS as a ‘dog of more than 3 pts vs. Ravens.
Steelers' Struggles As Big Playoff Underdogs
➤In the Super Bowl era, the Steelers have only closed as a double-digit underdog in the playoffs five times. They’ve lost all five games outright, going 2-3 ATS. Their biggest playoff upset came in 2006 as a 9.5-pt underdog against the Colts.
Under Mike Tomlin, Steelers are just 3-14 SU and 7-9-1 ATS as an underdog of 7 pts or more. As a dog of 8 pts or more, Tomlin is just 1-8 SU with the Steelers, his only win coming in 2022 vs. Bucs.
Steelers haven’t won or covered a playoff game since 2016-17, a 5-game SU/ATS playoff losing streak for Pittsburgh.
Lamar Jackson's Night Game Performance
➤Favorites in night games are 47-12 SU (80%) this season — best mark for any year since 1971.
Lamar Jackson is the king of night games during the regular season. He is 20-5 SU (80%) at night, the best win pct of any QB min. 15 starts since the merger.
Lamar is 0-2 SU in night games during the playoffs, losing 17-3 on the road in Buffalo and 28-12 at home to the Titans.
Jackson's ATS Success As A Narrow Favorite
➤As either a favorite of 3 points or less or an underdog, Lamar is 26-9 ATS in his career in both the regular season and playoffs. When Jackson is favored by more than 3 points in his career, he is 29-35-1 ATS, including the playoffs.
Zay Flowers' Potential Impact For Baltimore
➤Zay Flowers’ status is up in the air for the Wild Card round. How have the Ravens performed with and without him in the lineup?
The Ravens are 26-10 SU during the two seasons overall and Flowers has been inactive once – in Week 18 last year against the Steelers. Baltimore lost the game 17-10, but Lamar Jackson also sat in that contest.
When Flowers has received 5 targets or fewer in any game, Baltimore is actually 12-0 SU, including 1-0 SU in the playoffs.
In terms of Flowers’ impact on the field: This season, Flowers has 24.1% of the Ravens target share, almost 10% higher than Mark Andrews’ 2nd-highest mark and 25.3% of the team’s receiving yards, more than 7% higher than Rashod Bateman.
The biggest change might be for Lamar, who has 89 1st read or designed targets for Flowers, more than 40 more than the 2nd-most, which is Andrews at 48.
Steelers Limp Into Playoffs With Losing Streak
➤Even though Pittsburgh lost four in a row straight up entering the playoffs, they did go over their preseason win total for a 5th consecutive year – the longest active over streak in the NFL. Overall, Tomlin is 13-5 to the win total over in 18 seasons in Pittsburgh.
Steelers have lost four straight games to end the regular season for the first time since 1998 and they are just the 2nd team to enter the playoffs on a 4+ game SU losing streak with the 1999 Lions and 1986 Jets – neither of those teams made the Conference Championship.
Overall, we’ve seen a total of 12 teams in the Super Bowl era have a 4+ game SU losing streak that bled into December or later, and only one made the Conference Championship game – the 2011 Giants, who won it all – 9 of those 12 teams lost in the Wild Card round, while 11 of 12 lost in the Divisional Round or earlier.
Steelers' Offensive Struggles Continue
➤Steelers have also scored 17 pts or less in four straight games entering a playoff game – just the 4th team to do that over the last 20 years. The previous three teams all lost outright, scoring that same 17 pts or fewer in their postseason matchup.
Over this 4-game span, the Steelers are 31st in the NFL in EPA/play, including 31st in EPA per dropback.
Underdog Success In Steelers-Ravens Rivalry
➤Over the last 20 years, the underdog in this series is 29-11-3 ATS (73%). The underdog is 16-3-1 ATS since 2015. Overall, the underdog is 25-9-3 ATS when Mike Tomlin faces John Harbaugh, but just 1-2 ATS in the postseason.
Normally it may look weird to see the Steelers as this high of an underdog, but this would be their 3rd straight playoff game as a dog of 9 or more, losing to the Chiefs and Bills by a combined score of 73-38 in those games.
Ravens Penalized At Historic Rates
➤This season, the Ravens ended with 132 penalties as a team, T-2nd most in the NFL.
In the Super Bowl era, 17 teams have made the playoffs with 130+ penalties – one made the Super Bowl, 2014 Seahawks, who lost to the Patriots.
Ravens' Struggles Holding Leads Against Steelers
➤Historically, it has been difficult for Baltimore to hold a lead against Pittsburgh. Since 2020, the Ravens are 2-7 SU against the Steelers when leading at any point in the game.
Steelers are 6-11 1H ATS this year and 11-24 1H ATS over the last two seasons, the worst mark for any team in the NFL. Over the last 4 seasons, Pittsburgh is 25-45 1H ATS, also worst mark across the league.
Russell Wilson has started 16 playoff games in his career. He is 4-12 1H ATS and 12-4 2H ATS in those games.
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Broncos' Longshot Odds In Historic Playoff Context
➤One of the Super Bowl longshots in the field. Broncos opened the season at 150-1 odds to win it all. Only the Patriots, Panthers and Giants had longer odds entering the season.
The Broncos join the Commanders, who were also 150-1 entering the year in the playoffs and the Vikings who were 100-1.
This is the 3rd playoffs where three different teams at 100-1 odds or higher in the preseason made it – 2024, 2022, 2017 – 3 of 6 lost in the Wild Card round, two in Divisional and 2017 Jaguars at 100-1 made the Conference Championship. Here is how teams with preseason odds of 100-1 or higher have performed in the playoffs::
One team won the Super Bowl (1999 Rams)
One team lost in the Super Bowl (2021 Bengals)
Three teams lost in Conf. Championship (2017 JAC, 1983 SEA, 1979 TB)
Ten lost in the Divisional Round
Sixteen Lost in Wild Card Round
Bo Nix Among Rookie QB ATS Leaders
➤In Bo Nix’s early career as a starter, he has been a cover machine, going 12-5 ATS this year. In fact, Nix is only the fourth rookie QB to cover 11-plus games in a season in the Wild Card era since 1990, joining 2012 Russell Wilson, 2012 Andrew Luck, and 2008 Joe Flacco – with Flacco the only QB to cover 12+ games with Bo.
Exclusive Club Awaits Bo Nix With Playoff Upset
➤Last year, it was Jordan Love. This year, it could be Bo Nix. A win for Denver means Nix would join an exclusive list of QBs to win as a 7-point dog or higher in their first playoff start. In the Super Bowl era, 11 quarterbacks have achieved this, including Jordan Love, Marcus Mariota (2018), and Tim Tebow (2012).
Recent Rookie QB Playoff Trends
➤Overall rookie QBs are 5-12 SU in the playoffs since 2010, but recently they haven’t performed terribly, going 2-2 SU with C.J. Stroud and Brock Purdy in recent years.
Biggest Broncos Playoff Upsets
➤The biggest upset in Broncos playoff history came in the Super Bowl in 1998 as 11-pt underdogs against the Green Bay Packers. The 2nd-biggest upset to date came from Tim Tebow as a 7.5-pt underdog vs. Steelers.
Nix's Stellar Play With The Lead
➤One thing Bo has done really well this year, which will be helpful if Denver is able to take a lead, is keep control of the ball. Nix has 14 TD passes and just 1 INT when having the lead this year, the most TD passes with 1 INT or less in the NFL in that spot.
When trailing this year, Bo has 10 pass TDs but 6 INT and sees his QB rating drop by 20+ points.
Sean Payton's Road ATS Dominance
➤Broncos head coach Sean Payton has also been great ATS on the road or a neutral site, he is 83-61-3 ATS (58%), including 33-17-1 ATS since 2018, best mark for any head coach in the NFL.
On the road, when his opponent is averaging 24+ PPG, Payton is 29-14 ATS in his career.
Payton's Mixed Playoff ATS History
➤In his coaching career, Payton is 7-10 ATS in the playoffs. He is 3-9 ATS as a favorite and 4-1 ATS as an underdog.
Payton has only closed as a 6-pt dog or higher once in the playoffs and that was back 2014 against the Seahawks, where he closed +10 and lost 23-15.
Payton's Wild Card And Divisional Underdog Success
➤As an underdog in the Wild Card and Divisional Round, Payton is 3-0 ATS covering on the road with the Saints in all three games. With a cover vs. Buffalo, he would join Doug Pederson, Tom Coughlin and Rex Ryan going 4-0 ATS or better as a dog in the first two rounds of the playoffs in the last 20 years.
Bills Defensive Struggles Since Week 9
➤The Bills defense has been an issue lately. Since Week 9, they are 30th in success rate, their pass defense is 30th in EPA per dropback and dead last, 32nd in dropback success rate.
Josh Allen's Second Half ATS Streak
➤Josh Allen is on the streak of all streaks. Allen has covered the second half spread in 10 straight games in which he played in the second half. Allen is 14-2 2H ATS this season, the best mark for any QB in the NFL ahead of Baker Mayfield, who is 13-4 2H ATS.
Under Allen, the Bills are 73-44-3 (62%) against the second-half spread. Since 2005, he’s the most profitable QB on the second-half spread.
In the playoffs though, Allen is just 2-8 against the 2nd half spread, the worst mark for any QB in the last 20 years, losing 5 second halves ATS in a row since 2021-22 playoffs.
Allen's Home Success As A Big Favorite
➤At home as a favorite of over a TD (-7.5 or more), Josh Allen is 13-9-2 ATS in his career. Allen is 2-6-1 ATS away from home as that big of a favorite.
As a favorite of 7.5 or more at home, Allen is 23-1 SU in his career – with his only loss coming to the Broncos and Russell Wilson last season.
Overall, Josh is just 3-7 ATS in his playoff career. He is under .500 ATS in the playoffs in each round, Wild Card, Divisional and Conference Championship. Josh has been a big favorite in the Wild Card Round three times: two 3-pt wins and the 14-pt win and cover vs. Steelers last year.
Eagles And Packers Face Off In Playoff Rematch
➤Rematch time. Packers and Eagles faced off in Week 1 this year in Brazil, with the Eagles winning the game 34-29.
Overall, Jalen Hurts has faced Matt LaFleur and the Packers twice and he is 2-0 SU/ATS in those games, winning 34-29 against Jordan Love and 40-33 against Aaron Rodgers.
Hurts has played three playoff games in his career either at a neutral site or at home and he has scored 35, 31 and 38 pts in the three games.
LaFleur Excels In Revenge Games
➤LaFleur is 27-12 SU and 25-14 ATS when facing an opponent after losing to them in his previous matchup.
When he’s listed as a road underdog in a revenge spot, he is 7-4 SU and 9-2 ATS, covering the spread in 7 consecutive games.
LaFleur's Strong Wild Card And Divisional Record
➤As an underdog in the Wild Card and Divisional Round, LaFleur is 2-0 ATS covering on the road against the 49ers and Cowboys.
Overall, LaFleur is 4-1 ATS in the Wild Card and Divisional Rounds, going 3-2 SU with his only two losses coming by just 3 pts each.
Packers Shine Against Equal Or Lesser Teams
➤Against teams with the same SU record or worse, the Packers are 10-1 SU this season after losing to the Bears last week. Against teams with a better record than GB, they are 1-4 SU, just beating the Texans back in October.
Packers' Success Against Top Pass Defenses
➤A positive for the Packers and facing a stingy Eagles pass defense (174 pass yds allowed per game, best in NFL) is LaFleur has faced a good pass defense with the Packers eleven times (180 yds or fewer) and he is 7-4 SU in those games, including 4-1 SU with Jordan Love and they’ve won five consecutive games in this spot outright.
Second-Half Success For Packers And Eagles
➤Packers continue to be a good second-half team even after the 2H loss to the Bears last week with both Love and Willis playing. This season, they are 11-6 against the second half spread and they are 24-12 2H ATS over the last two seasons, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind only the Bucs.
Eagles have been a great second-half team this year, too. They are 12-5 against the third quarter spread and 11-6 against the fourth quarter spread this year, for a combined 23-11 in those quarters in the second half.
Jalen Hurts' ATS Performance As A Starter
➤Jalen Hurts has been the starting QB in Philadelphia since 2021. He is 34-31-2 ATS since the start of that season, including 16-20-2 ATS as a favorite of over 3 pts and 17-13-1 ATS when playing at home.
For comparison, we’ve only seen six games without him since that point – four were started by Gardner Minshew. He went 1-3 SU/ATS, but the Eagles scored 25.8 PPG in the four games – and one started by Kenny Pickett two weeks ago, they won 41-7 and last week with Tanner McKee, a game they won 20-13.
Hurts Excels Against Winning Teams
➤In Hurts’ career, he is 26-25-1 ATS as a favorite, 14-7 ATS when his opponent is above .500 SU and 7-16-2 ATS when the team is below .500 SU.
Since Hurts was drafted, his 14-7 ATS mark is 2nd-best in the NFL behind Lamar Jackson (15-7-1 ATS), who is in that same spot this week.
Eagles Thrive When Playing With A Lead
➤We’ve heard a large stigma about the Eagles blowing leads in the past. Under Nick Sirianni, Philly is 14-0 SU and 12-2 ATS as a home favorite when they get a lead of 7 pts or more at any point when facing a team above .500 SU.
Packers' Recent Struggles Could Be Misleading
➤Packers have lost two consecutive games both SU and ATS entering this matchup. Teams to do that entering a playoff game are 12-6-1 ATS since 2000.
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Commanders Enter Playoffs As Longshots
➤The Commanders were longshots in the preseason, sitting at 150-1 odds to win it all.
The Broncos join the Commanders, who were also 150-1 entering the year in the playoffs and the Vikings who were 100-1.
Here is how the 100-1 or teams performed in the playoffs:
One team won the Super Bowl (1999 Rams)
One team lost in the Super Bowl (2021 Bengals)
Three teams lost in Conf. Championship (2017 JAC, 1983 SEA, 1979 TB)
Ten lost in the Divisional Round
Sixteen Lost in Wild Card Round
Commanders' Long Playoff Win Drought
➤The Commanders have not won a playoff game in 19 years, the 3rd-longest active drought behind the Dolphins and Raiders. The last time they did? They were on the road, in the opening round, at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay.
Jayden Daniels Faces Tough Rookie Road Task
➤Jayden Daniels will have a similar task as Bo Nix this week – win a playoff game as a rookie starting QB on the road.
Rookies have lost seven straight road playoff games, with the last winner coming in 2012-13 from Russell Wilson and the Seahawks. Overall, rookie QBs are 5-14 SU on the road in the playoffs since 1990.
Daniels Shines In Night Games On Rest
➤Daniels has started three night games this season. His one loss came against the Eagles, where Washington was playing on short rest. On normal rest or longer, he went 2-0 SU/ATS in night games, with Washington’s offense scoring 68 total pts.
Overall, Washington went 9-4 SU and 11-3 ATS in games with normal or extended rest this year.
Buccaneers Struggle In Night Games
➤Since the Bucs win in the playoffs last year against the Eagles, the Bucs have played four night games this season and they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS.
Overall, Mayfield is 1-9 SU in his last ten night games, both regular season and playoffs, with his line win coming in the postseason against that Eagles team. Baker’s 1-9 SU mark is 2nd-worst of 79 QBs ahead of just Daniel Jones, who is 1-11 SU.
Playoff Teams Coming Off Big Comebacks
➤Bucs had to overcome a 10-pt deficit against the Saints last week to make the playoffs.
Teams in playoffs on normal rest or shorter, coming off a double-digit comeback in their previous game are 7-11 SU since 2006, including 4-10 SU when they are off 60+ plays on offense in their previous game.
Washington's Fourth Quarter ATS Issues
➤Executing in the fourth quarter has been a minor issue for Washington this year, even after the big comeback last week.
1Q ATS: 10-6-1
2Q ATS: 9-8
3Q ATS: 10-7
4Q ATS: 6-11
Washington’s 6-11 ATS mark in the 4Q is tied for the 3rd-worst record in the NFL.
High-Scoring Trends For Mayfield And Daniels
➤The over is 12-5 when Mayfield has started the game this season, the 2nd-best mark in the NFL behind just Lamar Jackson at 13-4. This year, games with Jayden Daniels as a QB are also 11-6 to the over.
Mayfield entered this year 48-41-1 to the under in his NFL career, with this being by far his best year to the over.
Wild Card Weekend's High Over/Under
➤This over/under is the biggest of Wild Card weekend, with it sitting around 50.
Since 2003, playoff totals of 50+ are 28-25-2 to the under, but if you split them up by indoor and outdoor games, they are 11-7 to the over indoors and 21-14-2 to the under outdoors.
Buccaneers Dominate Early Drives
➤The Buccaneers have played well in the first quarter this year. Their 11 scores on 1st drives are tied for most in the NFL, and their 8 TDs are also tied for most.
That is all with them having one of the worst starting positions on their first drive in the league, too (own 25, T-lowest). Bucs are 10-6-1 against 1st quarter spread this year.
Baker Mayfield's ATS Rollercoaster
➤In Baker’s career, he is 20-32 ATS the game after a cover, the 3rd-worst mark for any QB since 2003. After he fails to cover the spread, he’s 27-20-1 ATS.
➤Commanders second half overs are 13-4 this season, best mark of any team in the NFL. Last two seasons, they are even 23-11 to the 2H over.
Vikings And Rams Set For Playoff Rematch
➤Vikings and Rams will play a rematch of a game played back in Week 8 this season where Los Angeles beat Minnesota 30-20 – also the Vikings last loss prior to facing the Lions on SNF last week, which broke a 9-game win streak for Minnesota.
In their Week 8 matchup, Matthew Stafford threw 4 TD and 1 INT, all of which came without being blitzed, which the Vikings do most of any team in the NFL. On that day, Stafford had 3 TD, 0 INT and 0 sacks in a clean pocket, something Minnesota has to avoid this week.
This year, Stafford has 8 TD and 2 INT when being blitzed, 12 TDs and 6 INT without the blitz and his pocket pressure is even wider, 2 TD and 6 INT while being pressured and 18 TD and just 2 INT in a clean pocket.
Vikings Dominate Expectations With Historic Season
➤The Vikings win total was set at 6.5 entering the year — they finished the year 14-3.
They were the first team since the 2015 Panthers to finish at least 6.5 games above their win total and then they joined the 2004 Chargers and Steelers as the only teams to go 7.5 games above their win total since realignment in 2002.
Minnesota is the 5th team to eclipse their win total by 6.5+ games since 2002, none of the four teams won the Super Bowl, one made it there (2015 Panthers), two lost in the Wild Card round.
Long Odds And Big Wins For Vikings
➤Vikings are 14-3 SU and entered the season with 100-1 odds to win the Super Bowl. Since we transitioned to a 16-game schedule in 1978, only one team has won 13+ games after entering a season with 100-1 odds or higher to win it all – the 1999 Rams, who won the Super Bowl.
Momentum Loss Before Playoffs Not Always A Setback
➤Getting the loss out of the way. Over the last 20 years, four teams have had a 7+ game SU win streak snapped right before a playoff game – as the Vikings did on SNF against the Lions last week. Those four teams went 4-0 SU after their streak got snapped.
Success In One-Score Games Under Kevin O'Connell
➤One-score games have been a positive for the Vikings under Kevin O’Connell. In the regular season, Minnesota is 26-9 SU (74%) in one-score games under O’Connell. In 2024, the Vikings are 9-1 SU in those close games.
Unfortunately, O’Connell has coached one playoff game and that was a one-score loss two years ago to the Giants, a game Minnesota closed as a 2.5-pt favorite.
Facing The Lions Leaves Opponents Struggling
➤The Lions beat the Vikings last week. Teams after facing the Lions are now 6-10 SU and 4-12 ATS this season, failing to cover by an average of 8.8 PPG and 18-31 ATS over the last three seasons, the least profitable previous opponent ATS in the NFL over that span.
Vikings' Offensive Setback Before Playoffs
➤Vikings offense got stifled last week against the Lions after a great season averaging over 25 PPG.
Since 2003, teams to average 25+ PPG on the season, coming off a 14-pt game or less the week before the Wild Card round are just 2-9 ATS, failing to cover the spread by 9.4 PPG with the Eagles and Dolphins in this spot last year, who scored 16 combined pts between the two teams.
Stafford's Second-Half Struggles
➤Matthew Stafford is 15-25-1 against the second-half spread since the start of 2022 – the worst mark in the NFL. Since 2019, he is 32-52-2 2H ATS.
Stafford can’t hold a lead either. He’s 0-5 2H ATS this season after leading at the half and 2-15 2H ATS over the last three seasons in that spot.
Stafford's Road Playoff Challenges
➤In true playoff road games, Stafford is 1-3 SU. At a neutral site or at home, Stafford is 3-0 SU as a starting QB, all with the Rams.
Sean McVay's Night Game Performance
➤Sean McVay is 21-19-2 ATS coaching night games in his NFL career. When that night game is on short rest for McVay, he’s 8-4 ATS, when it’s on normal or extended rest, he’s just 10-13-2 ATS.
Stafford's Success As An Underdog
➤This season, Stafford has already won four games outright as an underdog, his most since 2016 and 2nd-most of his career. Stafford has won two straight games outright as an underdog entering this matchup, the only other time in his career he’s won three straight games outright as an underdog in the same season is in 2022, with the 3rd consecutive game being against the Bucs in the playoffs.
Between 2022 and 2023, Stafford was 1-10 SU as an underdog.
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NFL Betting Systems
System: Teams entering the playoffs off a SU loss, facing an opponent off a SU win are just 38% ATS since 2003.
Matches: PIT, GB, BUF
System: Turn the other way when it's all going right. Ravens and Bills are big favorites, off consecutive games without turning the ball over. These teams are 40% ATS over the last 20 years, including 18-34 ATS (35%) in November or later.
Matches: BAL, BUF
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System: Historically, you look to bet Wild Card teams who have playoff experience recently against teams without it.
Matches: HOU, BUF, TB, LAR
System: We have two indoor playoff games inside of a dome this weekend in Houston and Los Angeles. Since 2003, indoor playoff games are 66% to the over.
Matches: LAC/HOU, MIN/LAR
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