Jason Myers
Under 1.5 Extra Points Made (-105, DraftKings)
Myers has been an extra point machine in 2022, knocking in 41 of his 42 attempts for an average of 2.4 made per game. However, this matchup against San Francisco 49ers poses quite a bit of trouble for the Seattle Seahawks, who are heavy underdogs.
In the two games against the 49ers, Myers attempted one extra point in each game. That's because the Seahawks only produced two touchdowns in those contests.
Seattle doesn't go for two at a very high rate — just 4.5% compared to the 9.0% NFL average — but it did go for two twice. In both instances, the Seahawks were trailing by double digits when they scored a touchdown. As a big underdog, there's a higher chance they end up trailing by multiple scores, increasing their two-point attempt probability.
Add in rain and 13 mph winds in the forecast, and that's enough to show value on the under. I have Myers staying under this prop 55.5% of the time and would bet this down to -110.
Riley Patterson
Under 2.5 Extra Points Made (-155, DraftKings)
Patterson has only attempted 37 extra points on the season for an average of 2.18 per game. That's in large part due to the Jacksonville Jaguars' propensity to go for two at the sixth-highest rate in the NFL.
Patterson also has two negatives going for him here.
First, the Jaguars are a slight underdog, which increases the chances they will need to go for two. Second, if this game comes down to the wire, there's a real chance Jacksonville can win or tie the game simply by kicking a field goal instead of finding the end zone, increasing late-game field goal attempt probability.
The Los Angeles Chargers have allowed 41 extra points over 17 games against an easier than average schedule, so there is some upside for Patterson here, especially if the Jaguars grab the early lead.
If you don't want to lay a -155 price, I fully understand. However, overall I'm still projecting Patterson to stay under 2.5 extra points made at a 64.4% clip, which equates to -180 as fair value.
I'd bet this down to -160 to leave us some wiggle room.
