If you want to add an extra edge to your Saturday NFL Wild Card Round card, check out PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states, including some states where online betting access remains unavailable.
Here are the two PrizePicks plays I’m putting together for Saturday’s playoff games, one for Seahawks vs. 49ers and another for Chargers vs. Jaguars.
Christian McCaffrey
Over/Under 72.5 Rushing Yards
Christian McCaffrey hasn’t been the highest usage player since joining the 49ers. He’s just another cog in head coach Kyle Shanahan’s genius system.
That said, McCaffrey is the most-talented piece in Shanahan’s system, his usage has increased lately and this is a perfect situation for the All-World back to shine.
For starters, it’s the playoffs. This is when Shanahan is supposed to empty the tank and leave it all on the field. You do that by feeding the best player in the backfield, and that is not Elijah Mitchell.
Secondly, the weather is not looking good. We’re looking at double-digit mph winds and heavy rain in San Francisco, so I can see us getting a more run-heavy script from both teams.
Thirdly, you want to run the ball against the Seahawks. Seattle is 25th in rush DVOA and last since Week 10. The Seahawks have also allowed the seventh-most yards per carry and the seventh-highest rush EPA per play.
In terms of volume, Seattle’s rush defense looks no better. The Seahawks are second-to-last in rush yards per game allowed (150.2) and rush attempts per game allowed (30.9).
McCaffrey has notched triple-digit rushing yards in three of his last five games, averaging around 17 carries per contest during the stretch.
Action Network's Sean Koerner projects McCaffrey for 74.5 yards on 16.5 rushing attempts, providing us enough value to bet this line at PrizePicks.
Seahawks vs 49ers PrizePicks Play: Christian McCaffrey Over 72.5 rush yards
Austin Ekeler
Over/Under 49.5 Rushing Yards
This should be a fun PrizePicks Saturday, given we’re backing two running backs who are fan favorites.
Again, it’s the playoffs! Empty the tank and feed your best players. Ekeler has been the best running back in the Chargers’ backfield – and arguably the NFL – all season long.
Because of his pass-catching prowess, Ekeler saw significantly fewer carries than some of the league's best running backs. But Ekeler still finished 15th in DYAR and 20th in yards after contact. He also finished 15th in PFF’s final run grades.
All this to say, Ekeler is not just a pass-catching back. He can be a force on the ground when needed.
This man told us to draft him in fantasy football and promptly finished as the overall RB1 on the season.
Led all RBs in red zone touches, catches, and TDs. Finished top 6 in YPRR, evaded tackles, and yards created per touch. @AustinEkeler = legend. 🐐pic.twitter.com/s9mRdX371h
— Ahaan Rungta (@AhaanRungta) January 10, 2023
Ekeler was put in those situations more as the season progressed. He eclipsed 50 rushing yards in three of his final four games, averaging over 13 carries per game over the final five weeks.
This isn’t the worst matchup for Ekeler, either. We should see a high-volume game, considering both teams play fast. Plus, the Jaguars allow the fourth-most plays per game.
So, despite the Jags ranking top 10 in YPC allowed (4.2), they’ve given up their share of yards to opposing backs:
- Week 18: 109 yards to Derrick Henry (O/U 95.5)
- Week 15: 75 yards to Tony Pollard (O/U 59.5)
- Week 15: 58 yards to Ezekiel Elliott (O/U 60.5)
- Week 14: 121 yards to Derrick Henry (O/U 84.5)
- Week 13: 62 yards to D’Andre Swift (O/U 27.5)
- Week 12: 52 yards to Gus Edwards (O/U 47.5)
The list goes on and on.
Koerner projects Ekeler for 54.5 yards on 13 attempts, giving us plenty of value to lock in this PrizePicks line.
Chargers vs. Jaguars PrizePicks Play: Austin Ekeler Over 49.5 rush yards
