Bills
Under 1.5 Field Goals Made (+110, DraftKings)
The Miami Dolphins defense has been one of the stingiest when it comes to field goal attempts, allowing 29 in 17 games for an average of 1.71 per game.
In a small sample size of five games without Tua Tagovailoa taking the majority of snaps, that number drops to 1.6 field goal attempts per game. So even the loss of Miami's top quarterback hasn't shown to increase field goal opportunity for opponents.
That's important because Tyler Bass already averages just 1.94 field goal attempts per game, and his poor conversion rate means he's averaged just 1.69 made per game.
Buffalo also has a propensity for passing up on field goals on fourth down. Per my model, which uses win probability, score differential, time remaining, yards to go and field position, the Bills eschew field goals at the 10th highest rate in the NFL.
I have Bass staying under 54.2% of the time, so I wouldn't bet this past -105.
Graham Gano
Under 2.5 Extra Points Made (-140, DraftKings)
The New York Giants benefit from a positive matchup against the Minnesota Vikings, who have allowed the third-most points per game in the NFL this year. However, that hasn't translated into as many extra point attempts as one would think.
In fact, Minnesota has allowed just 2.29 extra points attempts per game compared to a league average of 2.19. So while that is a boost to Gano, it's not as large as it may seem.
That's because the Vikings have allowed 44 field goal attempts for an average of 2.59 per game, compared to 1.96 league-wide. Though teams are scoring against Minnesota, the larger boost is coming from added field goals.
Gano has attempted just 34 extra points in 17 games for an average of 2.0 attempts per game. A good chunk of that is due to head coach Brian Daboll not being afraid to go for two. The Giants rank seventh in two-point conversion attempt rate, going for a conversion on 15% of touchdowns.
Overall, this positive matchup isn't enough to push Gano's projection up to around 2.3 extra point attempts — let alone extra points made — which is what he'd need as a break-even projection at -145 odds.
I'm projecting Gano to stay under 63.9% of the time and would bet this to -155.
