And just like that, it was Sept. 1. You know what that means?
It's football season.
The college game is getting underway this week, and the NFL will not be far behind. That means futures markets have taken shape based on plenty of offseason action. There's one more week of action before games begin and we start to get an idea of what to expect from teams this season.
Here are two of our experts' combined five favorite win total bets for the 2022-23 NFL season.
Chris Raybon
Cardinals — Under 8.5 Wins
Teams that finish with a winning record typically have to win at least half of their home games, if not more. The Cards could fall well short of that, as they have to play the Chiefs, Bucs, Rams, Chargers, Eagles, Patriots and Saints at home, plus the 49ers in Mexico City (which counts as a home game). Their road schedule is no stroll in the park either, with games against Broncos, Vikings and Raiders, in addition to the Rams and 49ers.
The Cardinals always look sexy on paper because Kyler Murray is a flat-out baller, controversial contract clauses be damned. But this is an extremely fragile team with a ton of downside. They lost one of the best pass rushers in the game in Chandler Jones. J.J. Watt is 33 and has missed at least half the season in four of the last six years. Their top three corners are Marco Wilson, Byron Murphy Jr. and Antonio Hamilton, and neither of them – nor anyone else on the roster at the position – earned an above-average PFF grade last season. The same is true for the offensive line.
Last year, we saw the upside the Cardinals possess when they jumped out to a 7-0 start. This year, I think we see them more closely resemble the squad that closed the season 4-6 (including 2-6 with Murray, who won’t have DeAndre Hopkins for the first six games this year due to a PED suspension). I project Arizona to be favored in only seven games this year.
Sean Koerner
Atlanta Falcons — Under 5
The Falcons needed a ton of luck to go 7-10 last season. They were 7-2 in one-score games, ranked third in adjusted games lost due to injury and were 2.3 wins over their Pythagoreon expectation (they were expected to win 4.7 games based on their -146 point differential).
We should expect the Falcons to regress in terms of one-score game and injury luck in 2022. That’s a scary thought for a team that went 7-10 and will be without top WR Calvin Ridley while transitioning from Matt Ryan to Marcus Mariota or Desmond Ridder under center this year. Atlanta will be one of the worst teams in 2022, and I think there is enough value on its under to invest in.
Most books offer the Falcons win total at 4.5, but I like taking the Under 5 (-150) at DraftKings. Getting a push on 5 wins exactly is pretty good insurance to have. Here is the breakdown of the Falcons win total in my sims:
- 4 or fewer wins: 56%
- 5 wins exactly: 19%
- 6 wins or more: 24%
As you can see, the odds of winning this bet are more than double the odds of losing it, which means the -150 price tag is offering quite a bit of value.
Pick: Bet Under 5 (-145, Caesars)
Green Bay Packers — Under 11.5
Salary cap issues led the Packers to trade away All-Pro Davante Adams. It’s a huge loss for the offense, and it’s unlikely that Sammy Watkins and second-round rookie Christian Watson will replace his production.
The Packers are also due for some regression after going 5-2 in one-score games, and they played more like a 10.5 win team when looking at their +79 point differential. Green Bay’s +2.5 wins over expected was the second-highest in the league.
I like the value we are getting on the Packers at Under 11.5 (-140).
Pick: Bet Under 11.5 (-140, BetMGM)
Las Vegas Raiders — Under 8.5
The Raiders benefited the most from luck in the key metrics I like to look at on their way to a 10-7 record. They had the fourth-best injury luck and went 4-1 in one-score games.
The most mind-blowing stat was that Las Vegas managed to go 10-7 despite having a -65 point differential. Typically we would expect a team with a -65 point differential to finish closer to 7-10.
While the offense will get a significant boost from Davante Adams, the Raiders are a team I’m interested in fading in 2022. They face the second-toughest schedule and should see some regression in terms of one-score game luck in 2022. I’m taking the Raiders to go Under 8.5 wins at +100.
Pick: Bet Under 8.5 (+110, Caesars)
Tennessee Titans — Under 9.5
The Titans decided to trade A.J. Brown to the Eagles and a third-round pick for the 18th overall pick and used their first-round selection on WR Treylon Burks. It was a bold strategy that could potentially benefit them in 2023 and beyond. But for the 2022 season, their offense will most certainly take a step back without Brown.
The Titans were the most run-heavy team on early downs in 2021, and I’m expecting that to continue this season. It’s going to result in them being involved in a lot of one-score games and they will need to continue their good fortune in one-score games (6-2 last season) in order to clear their win total of 9.5.
I like the value currently being offered at FanDuel where the Under 9.5 is priced at -135.
Verdict: Bet Under 9.5 (-135, FanDuel)
