Nick Chubb, Najee Harris and George Pickens are the most popular NFL player prop picks for Thursday Night Football between the Steelers and Browns.
Steelers vs. Browns Most Popular Player Props for Thursday Night Football
- Nick Chubb to score a touchdown at anytime (-110)
- Najee Harris to score a touchdown at anytime (+160)
- George Pickens to score a touchdown at anytime (+450)
*Odds and data are according to PointsBet as of Thursday morning.
One of our predictive analysts, Nick Giffen, has evaluated each pick and has determined that the best play is on George Pickens to score a touchdown.
Do keep in mind that FanDuel has a better number for that market relative to PointsBet. FanDuel is pricing Pickens' anytime TD odds at +500.
Giffen said the Steelers are likely to pass 17% more than usual tonight, based on his in-game model. That's despite weather conditions that may include winds up to 35 mph.
That market at +500 is a "marginally good bet," Giffen said.
As for the two most popular props tonight, they're passes from Giffen.
Because Chubb scored three touchdowns last week, it likely means his anytime TD odds this week are shorter than they should be.
Fellow Browns running back Kareem Hunt is still a threat in the red zone, and Chubb has only led 8-7 in red zone opportunities for the Browns.
Chubb's fair value odds in this market are +107, meaning you're giving up about 4% in value compared to the current market odds of -110.
As far as Harris goes, his fair value is about +150, given the current odds an okay 1.5% edge, but not enough to fully invest unless you were going to anyway.
Harris has touchdowns in nine of 20 career games and the Browns are middle of the pack in the NFL at allowing running backs to score.
The most valuable play on Thursday night may be on the moneyline, especially if you're in a state that has DraftKings. It's the last chance to bet on their early win promotion. Read about which side of the moneyline is the right pick here.
