Everybody is looking for Super Bowl player props, and we have you covered with every key offensive player on both sides of Chiefs vs. Eagles.
While we have you covered with an ugly over on the Eagles side, we're betting a low under for a Chiefs pass catcher.
Here's a breakdown of tight end Noah Gray and what to expect from him in Super Bowl 59 on Sunday.
Super Bowl Props: Noah Gray
Through the first three months of the regular season, Noah Gray looked like an important part of the Chiefs offense. In the Chiefs’ first 12 games of the season, Gray averaged 2.7 receptions for 30.7 receiving yards, and he even scored four touchdowns.
Since then, though, his production has fallen off a cliff.
Since the start of Week 14, Gray has just eight catches for 51 yards and one touchdown. In the AFC Championship Game against the Bills, he was not targeted.
All of this makes Gray a prime candidate for an under in the Super Bowl. Here’s the market out expert is betting.
Noah Gray Player Prop Pick
By Sean Koerner
We've talked on our podcasts about how Noah Gray's playing time has taken a hit since Hollywood Brown made his Chiefs debut in Week 16. Gray was averaging a routes run rate around 45% before then, but it's gone down to 37% since Brown became a factor.
Gray's target rate has also taken a hit, going from 16% without Brown active to 9% since Week 16.
There are other factors that lead me toward this pick.
Patrick Mahomes is scrambling at a higher rate than usual, which is usually the case for him in the playoffs. Not only will that lead to less pass attempts, but Gray typically isn't Mahomes' first read. That means if Mahomes is scrambling if his first couple reads aren't open, it's less likely for Gray to get a target.
The Eagles are also a run-heavy team that can bleed to clock and limit opponents' overall play volume. They've allowed the second-fewest plays per game in the NFL this season. A counting stat like receptions will be impacted by that more than yards.
Lastly, Gray could be due for some slight catch regression. He's caught 82% of targets this season, but his expected catch rate is closer to 76%, which is right around his career rate.
I'm projecting Gray for around a 61% chance of staying under 1.5 receptions.
Pick: Noah Gray Under 1.5 Receptions (-135, DraftKings)
