Orlando Apollos-Salt Lake Stallions AAF Betting Guide: Ride with the League’s Best Offense?

Betting Odds: Orlando Apollos at Salt Lake Stallions

• Spread: Orlando -4.5
• Over/Under: 41
• Time: 8 p.m. ET on Saturday
• TV: NFL Network

Betting market: The Apollos are receiving just 4.5 points against the Stallions, who managed to outscore Arizona by five points during their six quarters with Josh Woodrum under center.

The over/under has dropped by 1.5 points since opening at 42.5.

Week 3 Takeaways

Orlando's 21-17 Win Over Memphis

• Garrett Gilbert has worked as the AAF's best quarterback since pretty much the first play of Week 1. He ranks third and first in yards per attempt on 20-plus yard throws and play-action passes, respectively. This willingness to attack every inch of the field in Steve Spurrier's Sun 'N' Gun offense has helped Orlando easily stand out as the league's most-productive offense after three weeks of action.
• D'Ernest Johnson has overtaken Akeem Hunt as the lead man in Orlando’s backfield. Johnson (54% snaps) was one of only six running backs in Week 3 to play more than half of their offense's snaps. And while De’Veon Smith remains plenty involved as a short-yardage specialist and early-down grinder, Spurrier indicated after the Apollos' Week 3 win that Johnson had played well enough to keep the starting job.
• The Apollos have one of the league's clearest defined pecking orders at wide receiver. Neither Jalin Marshall nor Charles Johnson missed a snap last week, while Rannell Hall played 64% of the snaps compared to measly 5% rate for Chris Thompson. Thompson (No. 2), Johnson (No. 5), Marshall (No. 16) and Hall (No. 24) rank among Pro Football Focus' top-25 receivers in yards per route run this season.

Salt Lake's 23-15 Win Over Arizona

• The Stallions have out-scored their opponent (Arizona) by five points in six quarters with Woodrum on the field this season. They’re certainly capable of continuing to win games with steady quarterback play and a strong run game and defense, but there won't be much big-play upside in the Salt Lake passing game as long as Woodrum continues to not test defenses downfield.
• Branden Oliver continues to work ahead of Joel Bouagnon, though both have received plenty of work in Salt Lake’s run-heavy offense. Terrell Newby was also involved in Week 3 and threatens to steal receiving work from both backs. Only the Express (48% pass-play rate) and Hotshots (50%) have run the ball more than the Stallions (53%) have.
• The passing game benefited from the return of wide receivers Kenny Bell and Kaelin Clay. De'Mornay Pierson-El has worked as the offense's No. 1 receiver in terms of targets, but he played only 49% of the snaps in Week 3 and is being used strictly as a slot receiver.

Which team is healthier? Orlando

The only player on the Apollos' injury report is outside linebacker Ryan Davis (head/neck), who was unable to practice Wednesday.

The Stallions have a few more concerns to worry about. Starting right guard Ryan Cummings (leg), right tackle Nick Callender (knee) and tight end Anthony Denham (leg) were unable to practice on Wednesday while wide receiver Jordan Leslie (hamstring) was limited after failing to suit up last week.

Key matchup: Salt Lake WRs vs. Orlando CBs

Woodrum has the league's quickest average release time by a whopping 0.33 seconds. He's been at his best when getting the ball out quickly, ranking third and fourth in quarterback rating and completion rate, respectively, when getting the ball out in 2.5 seconds or faster.

Salt Lake's offense runs into problems when Woodrum is forced to hold onto the ball. Only Christian Hackenberg has a lower passer rating than Woodrum does when taking 2.5 seconds or longer to throw, so Orlando's ability to take away his initial read will be crucial.

The Apollos' seventh-ranked pass rush in pressure rate per dropback isn't ideal for screwing with a quarterback's timing, but their cornerbacks might be good enough to make up for the lack of disruption in the trenches.

• Keith Reaser: PFF's No. 1 cornerback among 31 qualified players
• Cody Riggs: PFF's No. 3 cornerback
• Marquez White: PFF's No. 13 cornerback

DFS edge: D'Ernest Johnson

Salt Lake's defense has been solid all season, but there's a distinct possibility that Orlando's offense offense is simply in a different stratosphere compared to every other team.

Rostering the starting running back of the league's clear-cut No. 1 offense is typically a solid move in daily fantasy, which can be had for the low price of $5,500 this week.

Johnson has been the Apollos' best back all season and is their confirmed Week 4 starter. This role produced a 54% snap rate and 16 combined rushes and targets in Week 3 — each of which were the fourth-highest marks among all running backs.

Fantasy-friendly touches should continue to flow to the starting running back of the league's best offense, and Johnson has also demonstrated plus-receiving ability that has slate-winning ability.

Bet to watch: Orlando -4.5

I really wanted to take Salt Lake because of how much better the Stallions have played with Woodrum under center. Orlando's schedule has also been cake so far.

Still, there's a real possibility this Apollos offense is on an entirely different level than the rest of the league, so I'm fine with backing Spurrier and Co. at anything up to a touchdown.