Everybody loves betting on Super Bowl props. More so than ever, people have a thirst for action on the biggest game of the year, even if those bets aren't necessarily ones we expect to win, like the coin flip.
Sure, we want to win a coin-flip bet, but we go into it understanding that we're laying -105 odds on a bet with a 50% chance of winning.
But for some Super Bowl props, it's not always about winning — it's often just about fun.
Do you know what else is fun? Risking a little bit of money for a larger payout, and that's exactly what makes betting on Super Bowl overtime and safety props so appealing to bettors.
Let's take a look at the odds that Super Bowl 56 goes into overtime or that a safety is scored in Rams vs. Bengals.
Note: Odds as of writing and via BetMGM
Will Super Bowl 56 Go to Overtime?
- Yes: +1000
- No: -5000
To start, let's break down each of these into implied probabilities.
First, +1000 correlates with a 9.09% implied probabilities, while -5000 is 98.04%.
This means that from a value perspective, you need to believe Rams vs. Bengals has more than a 9.09% chance to go into overtime to warrant a bet on "yes."
Conversely, it also requires more than a 98.04% chance that there is no overtime in order to wager on that side of this prop.
From 2011 through the end of last season, 5.6% of NFL games went to overtime, meaning that percentage does not meet the 9.09% threshold for yes, nor does the opposite (94.4%) hit the break-even mark of 98.04% for no.
Will There Be a Safety In Super Bowl 56?
- Yes: +750
- No: -2000
Just like above, breaking this down into implied probabilities helps us see it more clearly.
Odds of +750 correlate with an 11.75% implied probability, with -2000 translating to 95.24%.
From 2001 through the end of last season, 6.7% of NFL games included safeties, which falls way short of the 11.75% implied probability for a "yes" bet.
Conversely, 93.3% of games not seeing a safety scored means there's no value in betting "no" with its 95.24% implied probability either.
Are you looking for Super Bowl props that are offering value?
Be sure to download The Action Network's free mobile app, which will be loaded with Super Bowl betting content and picks from now through Sunday, including the best prop bets to make for Rams vs. Bengals.
