Player props can offer some of the best betting value on the board in any given week. They typically feature smaller limits and take less action than traditional game bets, so the market can often be less efficient than NFL sides and totals.
This is where the FantasyLabs Player Props tool comes in handy.
We leverage prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet then receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge. Note that unders have typically done the best in our tool, and last season those bets were profitable even with grades below 10:
- Unders with Bet Quality of 10: 152-57 (72.7% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 9: 183-123 (59.8% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 8: 413-256 (61.7% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 7: 627-474 (57.0% win rate)
- Unders with Bet Quality of 6: 1,005-697 (59.1% win rate)
Overall, unders in our tool hit at a 59.0% rate in 2018. Don't take our word for it, though: Our props tool keeps track of its record at all times, so you can query performance of any time frame.
Now let's take a look at three props with a grade of 7 or higher for Thursday night's Packers-Bears game.
Packers RB Aaron Jones
THE PICK: Under 20.5 receiving yards (-110)
Betting unders might not be sexy, but like we addressed earlier, it's historically been profitable.
Jones enters this season with a lot of hype, but he was much better as a runner than a receiver last season. He averaged just 17.13 receiving yards per game in his eight starts, and he ranked as just the No. 71 receiving back according to Pro Football Focus.
The Bears were also solid at defending passes to the RB position last season, ranking 10th in Football Outsiders' DVOA.
This is probably my favorite prop in Thursday's contest, and I'd bet the under up to -125.
Bears RB Mike Davis
THE PICK: Under 9.5 receiving yards (-135)
The Bears signed Davis to a two-year, $6 million contract in the offseason, but he finds himself on a very crowded depth chart.
Tarik Cohen returns from last season's squad, and he was one of the more versatile RBs in the league. He's particularly adept as a receiving back, averaging 10.2 yards per reception, and PFF ranked him as the seventh-best receiving back in the league. Davis ranked 49th, so it's hard to envision a scenario where Davis plays over Cohen on passing downs.
The Bears also spent their first pick in the draft on David Montgomery, who figures to play a ton in his rookie season. He was used very sparingly during the preseason, which suggests that the Bears have big plans for him this year.
Davis is not going to be a complete non-factor in the Bears’ backfield this season, but this line seems high. I would play the under up to -150.
Packers WR Geronimo Allison
THE PICK: Under 3.5 receptions (-114)
Allison was limited to just five games in 2018, but he did manage 20 receptions over those contests. He’s expected to operate as the No. 3 receiver for the Packers this season, and he can obviously find some success in that role when catching passes from Aaron Rodgers.
Still, this line feels high.
Allison caught three or fewer passes in two of his final three games last season, and he averaged just six targets per game. He’ll also have to deal with more competition for passes with Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Jake Kumerow. MVS emerged as a legit field stretch after Allison got injured last season, and Kumerow has reportedly been one of the stars of Packers’ camp. Jimmy Graham also remains as an option to soak up targets in the middle of the field.
That said, the biggest red flag is the matchup. The Bears possessed arguably the best defense in the league last season, ranking first in defensive DVOA and second in pass defense DVOA. The Packers offense could struggle to move the ball in this contest.
Allison isn’t a particularly gifted WR, so I have no problem fading him in a brutal matchup against the Bears. I like the under up to -125.
