Week 3 lines have been dipping and diving since opening on Sunday. Here are the most notable changes as of Wednesday afternoon.
Packers vs. Buccaneers
The Packers opened up as consensus +3 favorites for this week's matchup against the Buccaneers. Generally, home teams receive a -3 point advantage in the markets by virtue of playing in their own stadium. That means this game opened at roughly even odds, without accounting for home-field advantage.
But sharp action has moved that line to a consensus of Packers +1.5 at sportsbooks like FanDuel, Caesars and DraftKings.
If you're bullish on the Packers on Sunday, with the spread sitting at +1.5, why not just roll with the moneyline?
At a market-best price of Packers +110 at Fubo, you're getting 19% extra value if you give up the 1.5 points. There's no need for those extra points.
Only about 3% of NFL games since 2010 have finished with a one-point margin, according to our metrics. The value here is with the moneyline, if you were planning on betting on Green Bay.
Chiefs vs. Colts
This game has jived in two separate ways, enough to have sharp bettors licking their chops.
The game opened at around Colts +6 or +6.5 across the market on Sunday. Then, on Tuesday, the public moved the line to Colts +7 at DraftKings and other sportsbooks. The retail bettors were all over the Chiefs.
Then, the sharps came in and readjusted the line accordingly. Now, the best line you can get on the Colts is +5.5 after sharps hammered Indy at the key number of +7.
Because of how American football is scored, there are distinct key numbers to keep an eye out for when sports betting. Among them, of course, are 3, 6 and 7.
Since 2010, about 11% of NFL games have finished with exactly a seven-point difference.
Once the big-money bettors saw the Colts at +7, they hammered that number. The market moved in conjunction.
49ers vs. Broncos
This game has flipped on its head since Sunday.
While the Broncos opened as -2.5, -150 home favorites against the 49ers, that line has moved sharply in the 49ers' direction.
The 49ers are now consensus -125 favorites across the market, with a spread of about -1.5.
That's on account of a few things. The Broncos look awful offensively and their coach, Nathaniel Hackett, looks lost. Despite lofty preseason expectations — the Broncos were tied with the Chargers and Chiefs for the second-highest win total in the AFC — the team looks hapless at head coach.
In Week 1, Hackett failed to use a timeout when he should have, which forced the Broncos to kick an audacious 64-yard field goal that missed badly. Throughout the game, his play-calling proved questionable, too.
Then, in Week 2, Hackett ran out of timeouts early in the fourth quarter. There were also two crucial delay of game penalties due to miscommunication on the coach's end. One resulted in a field goal opportunity being negated and forced the Broncos to punt.
Also, this will be the first week with Jimmy Garoppolo fully at the helm for San Francisco.
The market had accounted for the fact that 49ers' starting quarterback Trey Lance went down and discounted them as a result.
But Garoppolo is, in fact, the quarterback who led this team to the Super Bowl and guided a few other deep playoff runs, including a run to the NFC Championship Game last season.
Lions vs. Vikings
This line hasn't changed all that drastically, but it's done one key thing — dip through the key number of 7.
As previously mentioned, betting with key numbers in mind is vital in the NFL or college football.
For Lions vs. Vikings, the best spread on the market was Lions +7.5. On account of sharp action, that line has dipped all the way to a market consensus of +6.
Getting through the key number of 7 makes or breaks hundreds of thousands of dollars in bets per week. This may not be any different.
