The Green Bay Packers and Arizona Cardinals will face-off in the best Thursday Night Football matchup of the season, by far.
Unfortunately, both teams won't be at full strength — but who is this time of year, anyway?
While edge rusher Chandler Jones will return after a stint on COVID-19 list last week, J.J. Watt will miss the game with a shoulder injury. Meanwhile, Davante Adams will likely miss Thursday's match after entering coronavirus-related protocols earlier this week.
Fellow receiver Allen Lazard will definitely miss Thursday's contest because he's unvaccinated and won't be able to pass unvaccinated protocols in time, ESPN's Adam Schefter reported on Wednesday.
Schefter implied in his report that Adams was vaccinated. That means Adams could make the game if he tests negative twice in a 24-hour window.
Adams entered Week 8 with the third-most receiving yards and second-most targets in the NFL. The four-time Pro Bowler would have assuredly had one of the most bet on player props for Thursday's game. But without him, here are the top-three props bettors are favoring for this titanic matchup.
Packers vs. Cardinals Props
- Packers to win and both teams to score 20 or more points (+425)
- Packers to win by a margin of between one and six points (+425)
- DeAndre Hopkins to score the first touchdown in the game (+750)
These odds are according to BetMGM as of Wednesday afternoon.
The Packers have won — with both teams scoring 20+ points — just two times out of seven games this season for a rate of about 29%. That would imply the odds of this prop happening are about +245, if you were to solely use that metric.
If you want to incorporate last season into this calculus — with Green Bay sporting a similar roster on both sides of the ball — the Packers fulfilled this prop seven out of 16 games last season.
In combining the 2020 and 2021 seasons, the Packers have fulfilled this week's most popular game prop over 39% of the time, which implies odds of about +155.
If you trust that historical precedent, that means BetMGM is providing almost triple the implied value for Thursday's game.
Of course, the Cardinals are tougher competition than normal. They're the only undefeated team remaining and rank No. 2 overall in defensive DVOA. They don't let their opponents score points.
Since the 2020 season, the Cardinals have allowed 20 points in a loss in only six of 23 games. That's just about a quarter of their contests.
To bet this week's most popular prop, you'd have to make a value judgment about whether the market is overpricing the Cardinals relative to the average team.
Currently, based on the precedent set since 2020, the market is implying that Arizona — and, especially, its defense — is about 2.75 times better than the average team the Packers have faced over the last two years.
The second-most popular prop has negative expected value written all over it.
The Packers have fulfilled this prop just three times since the 2020 season for a rate of about 13%. That implies odds of about +670.
If you're adamant that the Packers will pull this game off, just take the moneyline at +220 instead of this second prop.
As for the third prop, Hopkins has scored the first touchdown of the game in three of his 23 career games with the Cardinals.
(Keep in mind that Hopkins is questionable for Thursday and did not practice all week.)
That roughly 13% rate implies odds of about +670.
He did fulfill this prop last week against the Texans, when he caught a 1-yard touchdown pass from Kyler Murray in the second quarter.
The five-time Pro Bowler previously fulfilled the player prop in Week 1 against the Tennessee Titans.
This one is a pure gamble. If Hopkins suits up, sure, pull the trigger here if you like to wager.
