NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value on the board every week. They receive less action and money than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities for bettors.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager on is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
My Sunday night prop bets have hit at a 75% (15-5) rate this season. Let's take a look at three props offering value for the Sunday Night Football game between the Green Bay Packers and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Since the start of the season, props with a grade of 8 or higher have gone 516-354-8 (58.8% win rate).
Packers vs. Chiefs Prop Bets
Chiefs TE Travis Kelce
The Pick: Under 70.5 Receiving Yards (-106)
Bet Quality: 8/10
Kelce has failed to hit this number in three consecutive games, and that was with Patrick Mahomes as the quarterback.
In their Sunday Night battle against the Packers, Kelce will not only have to adjust to backup quarterback Matt Moore, but the Chiefs will now have a full complement of weapons. Wide receiver Sammy Watkins returned to practice this week and joins teammate Tyreek Hill as major target challenges to Kelce.
Head coach Andy Reid will likely go with a run-heavy game plan against a Packers defense allowing their third-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs.
Kelce can produce a TE1 week and still fall short of this receiving line. I'm betting this 8-rated prop down to -110.
Packers RB Jamaal Williams
The Pick: Over 2/5 Receptions (-130)
Bet Quality: 8/10
While the majority of the fantasy community feels Aaron Jones is a superior receiving back to Jamaal Williams, it's Williams who has been more efficient over the past two games.
During that time, Williams has the same amount of receptions (eight), but more 12 more receiving yards and one more receiving touchdown than Jones. With leading wide receiver Davante Adams still out with a toe injury, look for Aaron Rodgers to again lean on his running backs to attack the short to intermediate routes of the field.
Kansas City is average at limiting running back receptions, and the defense is shorthanded without the services of defensive linemen Chris Jones and Frank Clark.
Our FantasyLabs projection of 2.9 receptions is 12% above the implied total of 2.6.
Packers QB Aaron Rodgers
The Pick: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-167)
Bet Quality: 8/10
This 8-rated prop on Sunday Night Football has the third-highest differential from the implied total.
While Kansas City's nine-sack performance at Denver was impressive, their defense will be less intimidating without Jones and Clark. Rodgers is one of the few NFL quarterbacks that is unaffected by road games, averaging almost identical numbers in road and home splits over the past four seasons.
While the casual bettor will assume that the absence of Davante Adams will hurt Rodgers' chances of hitting this prop, the Green Bay quarterback has still averaged 1.75 passing touchdowns in the four games Adams has not played over the past three seasons (RotoViz).
I will bet on Rodgers continuing his hot performance from last week against a shorthanded Chiefs defense even in Arrowhead stadium. I would bet this 8-rated prop up to -180.
