Packers vs. 49ers Odds
| Packers Odds | +3 |
| 49ers Odds | -3 |
| Moneyline | +135 / -160 |
| Over/Under | 50 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
After two embarrassing losses to the Super Bowl-bound 49ers in 2019, the Packers got revenge last season with a 34-17 victory in San Francisco.
The 49ers did not have Jimmy Garoppolo — or Trey Lance, for that matter — so can the Packers continue to have success against San Francisco at closer to full strength?
San Francisco 49ers
The 49ers got off to a rollicking start to the season, mashing the Lions 31-10 in the first half of Week 1. Since then, the 49ers have looked mostly flat, getting outscored 34-27 since.
San Francisco was lucky to beat the Eagles 17-11 last week, as the Eagles blew two scoring opportunities. First, Jalen Reagor stepped out of bounds on a touchdown catch that got called back on a possession that ended with a fake field goal. Then, later on a first-and-goal form the one-yard line turned into fourth and goal from the three. Head coach Nick Siriani dialed up an ill-fated Phill special attempt that was doomed from the start.
The Eagles also dominated the 49ers for nearly the entire first half before letting Deebo Samuel get loose for 40 yards on a third-and-1 play near midfield with under 30 seconds that the 49ers cashed in for a touchdown on the next play right before the end of the half.
The 49ers passing game has surprisingly run through Deebo Samuel, not George Kittle through two weeks.
Samuel has piled up 15 catches for 282 yards and a TD on 20 targets, while Kittle has been held to eight catches for 95 scoreless yards on nine targets. The difference for Samuel this year has been more downfield throws: His average depth of target is up to 7.4 after averaging a running back-esque 2.2 aDOT last season.
Samuel may finally hit a speed bump in this game, as the Packers can stick Jaire Alexander on him. Alexander has allowed just 4-of-7 passes in his coverage to be completed for 44 yards with no touchdowns. Lats season, Alexander allowed a 48.7% completion rate and 4.6 yards per target on 76 targets and was the chief reason the Packers allowed an NFL-low 48.3 schedule-adjusted receiving yards per game to No. 1 wide receivers, per Football Outsiders.
Samuel has lined up in the slot 34% of the time, but Alexander has added slot coverage to his repertoire in 2021. He already has more slot snaps through two weeks (21) than he had all of last year (20), according to Pro Football Focus.
Being able to limit Samuel and play single coverage on him if necessary will go a long way toward slowing down the 49ers offense. The Packers didn't game plan for Saints tight ends in Week 1 (rightfully so) but were burned for six catches, 39 yards and two touchdowns. They held T.J. Hockenson to just 7.3 yards per target on nine targets, though he too found the end zone on a perfect throw from Jared Goff. Alexander will allow Green Bay to double Kittle.
Green Bay will likely struggle to generate pressure against the 49ers stout offensive line, especially without pass rusher Za'Darius Smith, who is on injured reserve with a back injury.
Still, the 49ers' final passing stats may not look as good as the first two weeks if Alexander keeps Samuel from erupting for a big play.
Despite good stats, Garoppolo has looked uneven at times when not targeting Samuel, completing just 14-of-32 passes (43.8%) for 221 yards (6.9 YPA) and one touchdown to all other receivers. Of 34 quarterbacks with 15 or more attempts, Garoppolo is the only one yet to be credit with a "big-time throw" by Pro Football Focus. They define a big-time throw as "a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window."
Packers defensive coordinator Joe Barry's two-deep shells will also invite the 49ers to run, which is where they should have the most success…I think. The reason I say I think is because the 49ers backfield has turned into a slaughterhouse.
Here is the current status of each back on the opening day roster:
- Raheem Mostert: Out for the year with a knee injury.
- Elijah Mitchell: Suffered a shoulder injury in Week 2; doubtful for this week.
- Ja'Mychal Hasty: Suffered an ankle injury in Week 2; considered week-to-week
- Trey Sermon: Healthy scratch in Week 1; suffered a concussion in Week 2 while fumbling his first and only NFL touch; practiced with a non-contact jersey for most of the week; likely workhorse in Week 3
The Packers have held up surprisingly well against running backs, allowing 4.2 yards per carry. Kyle Shanahan has worked magic with his zone running scheme, but it won't be easy this week.
Green Bay Packers
The biggest issue for the Packers here is they will be without left tackle Elgton Jenkins, who graded out eighth among 70 tackles at Pro Football Focus through two weeks. Billy Turner, who has been good as well, grading 14th, will slide over to the left with veteran Dennis Kelly taking over on the right side.
With David Bakhtiari still on the PUP list as he recovers from a torn ACL, the Packers' tackle situation is in a state of flux, though it could be a lot worse if Turner wasn't playing well and they didn't have a nine-year vet to plug in on the other side. The 49ers blitz at the fifth-lowest rate (16.0%), according to Pro-Football Reference advanced stats, so this game may still come down to Aaron Rodgers vs. coverage more than the tackles versus pressure.
Rodgers predictably rebounded against the Lions last week, completing 22-of-27 passes for 255 yards, four touchdowns, and no interceptions. The 49ers have been stingy, allowing 6.5 yards per attempt, but Rodgers is a staircase up from Jared Goff and Jalen Hurts as a passer.
Even if the 49ers drop seven into coverage, Rodgers should be able to find success against a shaky San Francisco cornerback group with Jason Verrett (ACL) out for the year and Emmanuel Moseley (knee) listed as questionable.
According to PFF, Davante Adams is playing from the slot on a career-high 40.6% of snaps. He should be able to get matched up on whomever Rodgers wants, whether its the undersized K'Waun Williams, rookie Deommodore Lenoir, a washed-up Josh Norman or banged-up Moseley.
The 49ers have been leaky on the ground, allowing 5.0 yards per carry, though some of that can be attributed to facing a mobile quarterback in Jalen Hurts, who racked up 82 yards on 10 carries. Still, the 49ers allowed Miles Sanders to average a solid 4.5 yards per carry last week and in Week 1, they allowed 214 total yards and two touchdowns combined to D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams.
After Aaron Jones milk-cartoned in Week 1 with 22 scoreless yards on seven touches, Green Bay importantly re-established him against Detroit with 23 touches, which he turned into 115 yards and four touchdowns. He'll be an important piece once against with the 49ers struggling to contain the run and backs out of the backfield.
Packers-49ers Pick
I'm in line with the market on the total, but I like the Packers at +3 or better here.
Missing Jenkins is not ideal for the Packers, but the 49ers having a backfield and cornerback corps in flux does not bode well against the Packers, whom you need to play ball-control against on offense and cover on defense. At some point, the 49ers are going to need a big-time throw from Garoppolo, and he literally hasn't made one yet this year.
I'd also worry about a let-down spot for 2-0 49ers vs. a Packers team that doesn't want to hear the critics if they drop to 1-2 with a primetime loss.
This is the 49ers' first game back after a two-game road trip, a spot in which west coast home teams have struggled, going just 57-85-5 (40%) against the spread (ATS) since 2003, according to our Action Labs data:
Shanahan in particular has struggled getting his team up in this spot, going just 2-7 ATS. Shanahan has also struggled as a favorite in his career, going just 8-18-1 (31%) ATS.
And because we're still at a point where the season is young, this can be a great spot to back small underdogs, as the market tends to overrate favorites based on two weeks of data.
Case in point: Since 2003, Week 3 underdogs who opened under a touchdown — i.e. under +7 — are covering at a 59% clip…
… and Week 3 underdogs facing a favorite that covered in Week 2 are covering at a 60% rate:
Pick: Packers +3.5 (to +3)
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