NFL Odds For Packers vs. 49ers
Aaron Rodgers will be looking for revenge in a rematch of the 2019 NFC Championship Game, when the Packers lost to the 49ers, 37-20. But the Packers are in much better shape this time around while the 49ers have been decimated by injury.
If I had to rank the top five 49ers players by how many points they're worth to the spread, it would be: Jimmy Garoppolo, Nick Bosa, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Richard Sherman. All five are either out, on Injured Reserve or on the COVID-19 list.
Garoppolo and Kittle sustained their injuries this past Sunday, so the proximity to Thursday had a significant impact on the spread. The lookahead line had this matchup right around a pick 'em, but that has since moved roughly 7.5 points, which feels aggressive.
I had the Packers power rated as 1-point favorites for this matchup before Week 8, then after Garoppolo and Kittle suffered their injuries, I moved the line to Packers -6 (Jimmy G is worth about three points while Kittle is worth about one to one-and-a-half points). I also added another point to account for the cluster of injuries at wide receiver.
But the 49ers may be able to overcome their absences thanks to Kyle Shanahan — one of the more underrated coaches in the NFL.
I expect Shanahan to have a run-heavy game script on Thursday and to attack a Packers run funnel defense that just gave up 163 yards and three touchdowns to Vikings running back Dalvin Cook. It helps that the 49ers offense is more of a "system" that allows backups like JaMycal Hasty and Jerick McKinnon — their only healthy running backs — to step in and thrive.
The Packers could be in similar shape, as Jamaal Williams and A.J. Dillon are out due to COVID-19 while Aaron Jones is questionable with a calf injury.
If Jones and left tackle David Bakhtiari are both ultimately ruled out, I would lower the Packers from -6 to -5, meaning there could be even more value in this number once inactives are released. In that scenario, I like getting the 49ers +7.5, but as always, props will offer more value — I'll release my prop pick for this game on Thursday afternoon.
PICK: 49ers +7.5 if Jones and Bakhtiari are ruled out
[Bet now at PointsBet and get $125 if the Packers gain a yard]
