Green Bay shocked the NFL world last week, dominating Dallas 48-32. Whether on the ground or through the air, the Packers' offense ran through the Cowboys like a hot knife through butter. Green Bay has the hardest possible path through the playoffs though as they now head to San Francisco to take on the top-seeded 49ers.
While recency bias has the hype around Green Bay after upsetting Dallas, on the back burner is how good San Francisco has been all year. Let’s build a Packers vs 49ers same game parlay to take advantage of the 49ers being forgotten for having a bye last week.
Packers vs 49ers Same Game Parlay | +921 Divisional Round SGP (+921 via FanDuel):
- 49ers 1H -6.5
- George Kittle 60+ Receiving Yards
- Aaron Jones Anytime TD
49ers 1H -6.5
Packers vs. 49ers | 8:15 p.m. ET
This pick comes from the belief in Kyle Shanahan and the rested talent of the 49ers. On PFF’s all-pro team, four 49ers were named starters on offense: Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Trent Williams. They also had PFF’s fourth-ranked quarterback, Brock Purdy, and Deebo Samuel is 15th among wide receivers.
We have seen this offense take advantage of mismatches and feed whichever skill position player has the best matchup. Now, the offensive wizard in Shanahan had an extra week to game plan and figure out how to get his players open and where to target Green Bay’s defense.
The Packers have played much better defensively recently but still gave up 32 to the Cowboys last week. Less than a month ago, they allowed the Panthers to have their best game of the season. Green Bay is playing well, but if teams like the Steelers, Giants and Panthers were able to have big games against the Packers, what do you think a rested 49ers team will do?
As for the Packers' red-hot offense, you can’t argue with how good they have been recently. However, Matt LaFleur and Shanahan run similar schemes and use similar actions to confuse defenses. We saw against Dallas that Green Bay had several receivers running free to create big plays or touchdowns. Those opportunities should be limited in this matchup.
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George Kittle 60+ Receiving Yards
Packers vs. 49ers | 8:15 p.m. ET
We mentioned Kyle Shanahan is going to take advantage of mismatches where he can find them. Last week, Dallas tight end Jake Ferguson had 10 catches for 93 yards and three touchdowns. Even though most of Ferguson’s production came in garbage time, it exposed a weakness in the Packers' defense.
Jaire Alexander will line up outside and take away Brandon Aiyuk, the 49ers' standard top-receiving option. But when they turn to George Kittle and see the mismatch, they are going to feed their star tight end.
Kittle has crossed this threshold in seven of his last 10 games played. If you exclude blowouts where San Francisco didn’t look to throw as much, that jumps to six out of seven.
This is the perfect spot and the production has been there in recent games for Kittle. I think there is room to even buy up to 70+, but 60+ puts the total parlay odds where I like them.
Aaron Jones Anytime TD
Packers vs. 49ers | 8:15 p.m. ET
The last four weeks, Aaron Jones has played some of the best football of his career. He is averaging 21 carries for 119 yards. He has been the Packers' best playmaker by far and filled in nicely as a feature back with AJ Dillon injured.
As the feature back, Jones took over the goal-line work and handled it excellently. He had three rushing touchdowns and all three came from within the 10-yard line.
We have the Packers trailing by at least a touchdown at half and their offense is too good to keep down all game. I think Jones grabs a second-half touchdown with Green Bay fighting to come back.
