Dawson Knox is an old friend of mine, and I haven’t seen him over +200 odds in quite a while. At +220, this is easily the largest odds on him all season.
Knox, who had eight touchdowns in the red zone last season, hasn’t gotten the same type of work this year. But that doesn’t mean he’s no longer an elite weapon in scoring position.
He logged his first touchdown of the season in Buffalo’s last game against Kansas City, and I expect him to possibly get another one on Sunday Night Football with Bills receivers demanding so much attention.
Isaiah McKenzie
ATD +310 (DraftKings)
The slot is where the Bills can exploit the Packers’ pass defense, and that’s where Isaiah McKenzie happens to line up.
McKenzie has three touchdowns thus far – all have come in the red zone. He’s also gotten at least one red-zone look in each game this season.
Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis are obviously amazing and the guys people want to bet on, but their odds to score are +110 at best.
Of note: Josh Allen has eight passing touchdowns in two home games so we are grabbing value here.
Amari Rodgers
ATD +1200 (FanDuel)
Time for a long-shot play.
Amari Rodgers hasn’t gotten much work this season, but Allen Lazard is out for this game so there should be more opportunities.
While the Bills’ defense is tough (No. 1 in defensive DVOA), they have given up five touchdowns via the pass compared to only four on the ground.
Sammy Watkins and Christian Watson are returning from injuries and playing in this game, but I’d rather bank on the value guy. As an added bonus, Rodgers returns kicks so that’s an additional way he could score.
Note: Just a half-unit play for this one.
