The spiraling Green Bay Packers head to Buffalo take on Josh Allen and the Bills on Sunday Night Football. It’s the first time ever in Aaron Rodgers’ career he enters as a double-digit underdog (10.5), which snaps a 234-game streak.
Green Bay has lost three straight and enter this game under .500 while the Bills are fresh off a bye. They took down Kansas City two weeks ago and have the best record in the AFC at 5-1.
Here’s a same game parlay for SNF that features three props.
Robert Tonyan
Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
The Packers' struggles at the wide receiver position are blatant.
Their two leading wideouts, Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb, are injured. Rookie Christian Watson enters with a questionable injury designation, and Romeo Doubs hasn’t broken 30 yards since Oct. 2 against New England.
In what is expected to be a trailing game script, Aaron Rodgers is going to need to lean on a reliable receiver, and I think Robert Tonyan fits the bill perfectly. The tight end has gone over this number in two straight, including a 10-reception performance against the Jets two weeks ago.
The Bills are nothing to gawk at when it comes to defending tight ends. The opposition averages 5.3 receptions for 48.3 yards per game.
I expect similar numbers out of Tonyan. He not only averages over four receptions per game and 8.4 yards per catch, but that’s with a healthy Lazard and Cobb. Tonyan is the third-most targeted Packer — 14.2 percent — and should see a big boost in production.
This is a number our Action Network projections have closer to 30, but this could even end up closer to the 50-60-yard range. I’m a bit nervous trusting the rookie Doubs in this spot, but am all in on Tonyan, who has proven to be a reliable cog in this offense for three years now.
AJ Dillon
Over 25.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Despite the Packers being double-digit underdogs, this number is way too low for AJ Dillon.
Dillon enters this game after a tough Week 7 in which he played just 16 snaps and rushed for 15 yards on four attempts. But that should be taken with a grain of salt. Dillon has finished with 30-plus rushing yards in every game outside of that.
Even in a trailing game script, I like this number. Despite their fourth-ranked defense (per PFF), the Bills' rush defense is ranked 13th. And though he's in a timeshare with Aaron Jones, Dillon has seen double-digit carries in all but two games.
We could see plenty of two running back sets from the Packers. They are decimated by injuries and Jones is a big-play threat in the passing game. That could lead to more rushes for the 24-year-old Dillon.
Dillon averages just shy of four yards per rush, so all he needs is about 6-7 carries here. Our Action Network projections have him at 31 rushing yards, so there’s value on the over.
Stefon Diggs
Over 80.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
There are few constants in the NFL, but Stefon Diggs is one of them.
Diggs has broken 100 yards in four of his six contests. He averages over eight receptions per game and has found the end zone six times. He is the most targeted Bill — for good reason — and should have another strong performance.
I’m not worried by the 10.5-point spread. The Bills stick to their roots and pass the ball. It doesn’t matter how much they’re up, they’re high-powered and love to keep the ball in Josh Allen’s hands.
Even in their 35-point blowout of Pittsburgh, Diggs hauled in eight receptions for 102 yards. He’s a big-play receiver who could eclipse half this number with one catch.
His targets will likely be in the double digits — he has 9-plus in all but one game — and given his aDOT of 10.0, he should hit this number with relative ease. Diggs also averages nearly 40 yards after the catch per game, too.
Will the Bills blow out Green Bay? It’s a possibility. But even if it happens, it’ll likely have something to do with Diggs breaking a few big plays.
Our Action Network projections have this number closer to 84, so there’s some value to the over.
The Parlay (+544)
- Robert Tonyan o27.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- AJ Dillon o25.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Stefon Diggs o80.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
