Packers at Chiefs Odds & Picks
- Odds: Packers -5
- Over/Under: 47.5
- Kickoff: 8:20 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: NBC
Odds as of Sunday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
What do these Sunday Night Football odds tell us? Well, that Patrick Mahomes is worth about eight points to the spread.
After opening as 3-point favorites in Week 8 lookahead lines — before Mahomes' injury — the Kansas City Chiefs are now 5-point underdogs to the Green Bay Packers for tonight's showdown at Arrowhead with their star quarterback out. But where's the value on this line?
Our experts break down how they're betting the spread, over/under and one of the best player props.
Sean Koerner: Chiefs +5
This is by far the most interesting game to handicap this week, and arguably of the season.
This spread is very much a reflection of how many points Mahomes is worth. As soon as he suffered the injury last Thursday night, I was weighing how big of an impact it would have on the Chiefs in fantasy and betting. The lookahead line for this game was right around Chiefs -3.5 before the injury, and I thought it would impact the spread by seven to nine points, so I quickly posted a Week 8 line on twitter of Packers -3.5.
If Patrick Mahomes is out next week who would you take in their Week 8 matchup?
GB at KC
— Sean Koerner (@The_Oddsmaker) October 18, 2019
I was surprised when a significant majority of people ended up taking Green Bay, with some people saying it was the worst line they've ever seen — it seemed like people assumed the Packers would be much closer to -7.
The reason I say Mahomes is likely worth seven to nine points depends on what numbers are being crossed based on the line move. A move from -3.5 to +3.5 crosses the most critical number in NFL spread betting (3) not once, but twice. That's why I had this closer to a 7-point line move. If the spread was Chiefs -1.5, it's likely the line could have ended up in the Packers -7 range as it would've passed 3 only once, then parked on the next key number (7) for a full 8.5-point line move.
Having said all that, it's clear to me that the public is all over the Packers here — especially after Aaron Rodgers exploded for 429 passing yards and six total touchdowns last Sunday.
The sharps are more than likely going to back the Matt Moore-led Chiefs and bank on Andy Reid to build the offense around Moore in the 10-day window. We have to remember that they do have playmakers like Tyreek Hill, Sammy Watkins and Travis Kelce who can make a below-average QB like Moore look normal. We saw a glimpse of this when Moore connected with Hill for a 57-yard score in the third quarter of Thursday's win.
Chiefs +5 is one of the sneakiest bets of the week.[In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Matthew Freedman: Under 47.5
Whenever the Chiefs are home, I almost always automatically bet the under.
That might seem counterintuitive: If the team with one of the best offenses in the league is at home, shouldn’t we expect that team to score more points than usual? And wouldn’t that drive the game to the over?
With the Chiefs, that's historically not been the case.
In the Reid era, the Chiefs have actually scored 3.3 fewer points at home than on the road. That's easily the most negative home/away offensive scoring differential in the league.
In fact, Chiefs games have an NFL-worst home/away total differential of -8.4 points. In Kansas City, NFL games rank No. 26 with a mediocre 43.1 points. On the road, Chiefs games blow out with a league-high 51.5 points.
Arrowhead Stadium is a tough place to score, for both the home and visiting teams.
Since Reid joined the franchise in 2013, no home team has made under bettors more money than the Chiefs have with their 34-19-1 under record (including playoffs), good for an A-graded 24.9 ROI.
That Mahomes is out makes the under only more intriguing. I'd bet this down to 45. [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Mike Randle: Jamaal Williams Over 2.5 Receptions (-130)
While the majority of the fantasy community feels Aaron Jones is a superior receiving back to Williams, it's Williams who has been more efficient over the past two games.
During that time, Williams has the same amount of receptions (eight), but more 12 more receiving yards and one more receiving touchdown than Jones. With leading wide receiver Davante Adams still out with a toe injury, look for Rodgers to again lean on his running backs to attack the short to intermediate routes of the field.
Kansas City is average at limiting running back receptions, and the defense is shorthanded without the services of defensive linemen Chris Jones and Frank Clark.
Our FantasyLabs projection of 2.9 receptions is 12% above the implied total of 2.6.
