The Green Bay Packers and Dallas Cowboys are two of the hottest teams in the NFL as both teams have gone a stunning 6-2 since Week 11. Although these teams ended the year similarly, the narrative around each is very different.
The Cowboys have the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl of any NFC team. Given their recent playoff struggles, failing to meet those expectations could mean big changes in Dallas.
Meanwhile, Green Bay feels like a team that is simply happy to be in the postseason. The Packers started the season 3-6 as questions about their coach, defense and quarterback flowed through the media. Now the Packers are playing with house money as they are confident in the foundation they have built for years to come.
Let’s see if we can build a Green Bay Packers vs. Dallas Cowboys parlay.
Packers vs Cowboys Same Game Parlay (+906 via DraftKings):
- Over 50.5
- Packers +6.5
- Aaron Jones 80+ rush yards
- Jayden Reed 60+ receiving yards
Over 40.5
Packers vs. Cowboys | 4:30 p.m. ET
Jordan Love's complete turnaround has saved Green Bay's season. In his first nine games this season, Love had a quarterback rating of 80.5, but in the last eight games, his quarterback rating has risen 112.7.
Love’s improved play has not only improved the passing game, but it has also opened things up for the running game. During this eight-game stretch, the Packers have also rushed for at least 100 yards in seven games. In the first nine games, Green Bay rushed for over 100 yards just four times.
The Cowboys offense has been unstoppable at home this year thanks to Dak Prescott’s play. In Dallas, Prescott has a quarterback rating of 117.4, but on the road, his quarterback rating drops to a mere 92.1. The Cowboys have scored fewer than 30 points at home just once this season in their Week 17 win over the Lions. However, the Cowboys still moved the ball with 384 yards of offense in that game, so production was not the problem.
Both of these offenses have been excellent to end the year, and they should ride their momentum into the playoffs in perfect scoring conditions at AT&T Stadium.
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Packers +6.5
Packers vs. Cowboys | 4:30 p.m. ET
Expect this game to look a lot like the Cowboys' matchup against the Seahawks. Both teams will score back and forth and only be stopped when they shoot themselves in the foot. Dallas was lucky to walk away in that game with a six-point victory. Fortunately, this line is right at that mark.
This Packers offense is humming and simply too good to be getting so many points.
Aaron Jones 80+ Rush Yards
Packers vs. Cowboys | 4:30 p.m. ET
Having Aaron Jones at full strength has completely changed the running game for the Packers. In the final three games of the season, the Packers leaned on Jones as a workhouse, and he answered the call as he averaged 21 carries for 119 yards per game.
Expect the Packers to try to set the tone early with Jones and limit the impact of the Cowboys' home crowd. Rushing Jones will also target the weaker part of the Cowboys defense as they ranked 15th in yards per rush allowed but seventh in net yards per pass allowed.
The touches will be there for Jones, and all he needs to do is keep taking advantage of the opportunities the defense presents to him.
Jayden Reed 60+ Receiving Yards
Packers vs. Cowboys | 4:30 p.m. ET
I know I hyped up Jordan Love’s play but left him off the parlay card. Unfortunately, adding passing props doesn’t yield a lot of juice after adding the over.
Instead we will target a receiver who will benefit from Love’s success. Jayden Reed has been thrust into a leading role due to Christian Watkins' injury and has played well. In his last three games, Reed is averaging 84 receiving yards per game and one touchdown.
The Packers have used him in a variety of ways as they have utilized his speed to create big plays down the sideline and allowed him to make plays from the slot where they can create favorable matchups against the defense.
This Packers offense will need a receiver to step up to keep pace with the Cowboys, and Reed will be the first one the Packers call upon when they throw.
