Eagles vs Packers Odds
Eagles vs Packers Picks
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Anthony Dabbundo: The Packers head to Philadelphia in desperate need of a win to remain in the NFC playoff hunt. They've been one of the most unfortunate teams in the league this year based on fourth-down variance, turnover luck and close games.
The Action Network Luck Rankings have them 27th — they are facing a Philly team that ranks second. The Eagles have been a great, but they've also been quite fortunate with turnovers as their turnover differential (+12) is three better than the next team.
The Eagles have been great front-runners all season long after building first-half leads, but there are clear signs they've become overrated in the market.
Since blowing out the Steelers to end October, Philadelphia has failed to cover each of its last three games against the Texans, Commanders and Colts. The run defense has been a glaring issue. The Eagles are last in rushing success rate allowed and bottom three in EPA per rush. Green Bay has a top five run offense by DVOA and that should keep them in this game.
The Packers' run defense is a concern in this matchup, as is the injury for Aaron Rodgers that could be hindering his effectiveness. But the gap between these two teams isn't big enough to warrant the full touchdown, even with the game in Philly.
Play the Packers at +6 or better.
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Ricky Henne: With odds as favorable as +300, I see no reason not to take a crack at a Christian Watson anytime touchdown. After all, he has five of them in his last two games.
The 6-foot-5, 208-pound rookie has emerged as Aaron Rodgers’ favorite target inside the twenty. His three red-zone touchdowns over his last couple games are the exact amount the Packers had in their previous four contests combined.
Watson’s emergence is a rare bright spot on a team that hasn’t had much to celebrate. He’s come on so strong that he accounts for 26.3% of Green Bay’s 19 touchdown receptions despite an injury plagued start to the season. It’s no surprise then that 103 of his 224 offensive snaps (46%) have come over the last two weeks.
Still, this will be a tough task for him against the league’s top passing defense. The Eagles have given up the fifth fewest touchdowns through the air (10) and boast the fourth lowest touchdown per pass attempt percentage in the NFL (2.8).
If the odds on a Watson anytime touchdown were lower, I’d likely pass. However, there’s excellent value here considering the budding Rodgers-Watson connection. It’s more than worth a shot.
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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Charlie DiSturco: Aaron Rodgers' broken thumb might be bad news for most players, but it could be a boost to Aaron Jones’ production.
Rather than keeping the ball in Rodgers’ hands, quick passes and a lion’s share of carries will be asked of Jones. Against Philadelphia’s run-funnel defense, he should feast.
The Eagles have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. The duo of Darius Slay and James Bradberry should have their way against Green Bay's receivers — but Philly’s Achilles heel is defending the run.
The Colts ran for 98 yards on 25 carries last week. Washington had 130 total — on 40 (?!) rushes — the week before. Houston? Dameon Pierce gashed the Eagles for 139 yards.
On a per game average, the Eagles let up 89 yards on the ground. Running backs average 4.53 yards per carry.
Our Action Network projections have Jones at 13.8 carries and 62 rushing yards. At this current number, there’s a 2.4% edge toward his over.
In games Jones has double-digit carries, he has gone over this number five out of seven times. With an average of 5.4 yards per rush and a great matchup, I love Jones’ chances at going over.
