The Sunday slate of games in Week 12 closes with Packers vs. Eagles in primetime.
Green Bay is a hugely disappointing 4-7, although Philadelphia has looked slightly more human over the past few weeks. It'd still be a shock to the NFL if the visitors come away with a win.
Using the Action Labs Player Props tool and Sean Koerner's projections, here are two player props that stand out given the numbers and trends.
Miles Sanders
Over 14.5 Rushing Attempts (-108, FanDuel)
As long as the Eagles are leading the entire game and it isn’t a blowout, Miles Sanders will clear this prop.
Sanders has gone over this total six times in 10 games this season. The four times he didn’t saw the Eagles either lose or play a tight game: 38-35 win over Detroit in Week 1, 35-13 win over Pittsburgh in Week 8, 32-21 loss to Washington in Week 10, 17-16 win over Indianapolis last week.
Otherwise, when the Eagles are in control and able to not worry about the score when running their offense, Sanders is always involved. He’s already just 23 carries away from tying his career high and eclipsed his rushing yards from last season.
There are many ways this game could play out, but the most likely is that the Eagles run their way through the Packers’ 29th-ranked run defense (according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric).
Pick: Miles Sanders Over 14.5 Rush Attempts |
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Christian Watson
Over 3.5 Receptions (+102, BetMGM)
Over the past two weeks, five of Christian Watson’s eight catches have been touchdowns. He has four grabs in each of those games for a combined 155 yards.
With Romeo Doubs still out, Watson’s snaps have increased in a big way. A disappointing Week 1 drop saw his snap percentage go from 66% that week to no higher than 23% before he logged 84% of offensive plays in Week 10. It remained high at 80% last week.
Watson faces his toughest test of the season this week, though, against an Eagles defense with two shutdown corners. Darius Slay and James Bradberry have given the Eagles the best pass defense in the NFL.
Still, if Green Bay can’t contain the Eagles’ run game and is playing from behind, Aaron Rodgers will have to air the ball out more than he or coach Matt LaFleur would like to.
If that’s the case, Watson will be the target a lot of the time. He has 14 targets in his last two games to go along with his four catches.
Action Labs projects Watson for 3.7 catches, and BetMGM has this prop available at plus money. I’d play it as long as there’s a plus number attached to the over.
