This week’s Sunday Night Football game is a star-studded matchup, as the Aaron Rodgers-led Green Bay Packers play the Jalen Hurts-led Philadelphia Eagles.
So, which team has the edge?
It’s pretty tough to pick a side in this game, so I’m skipping the side altogether and targeting some player props.
If you’re looking for different ways to bet on NFL player props, I’d recommend PrizePicks. The app allows you to parlay NFL player props for real money in 30 states, including states where online betting is unavailable.
Let’s dive into my Sunday Night Football PrizePicks card, where I’ll be fading both big-name quarterbacks.
Jalen Hurts
Over/Under 29 Passing Attempts
The Packers have a horrendous rush defense. Green Bay is 29th in Rush Defense DVOA and 28th in rush EPA per play, allowing the sixth-most rushing yards overall.
That sets up well for Philadelphia, which boast one of the NFL’s best rushing attacks behind one of the best offensive lines. Philadelphia is sixth in Offensive Line Yards and second in rush EPA per play.
As many other coaches have, Nick Sirianni should have no problem letting Hurts hand the ball off. The Packers have held nine of 11 opposing quarterbacks under their pass attemptstotal this season, mostly because the front seven is getting shredded on the ground.
However, we don’t have to search for the best matchup for Hurts in this market. Hurts has stayed under 29.5 pass attempts in six of his last seven games, including five straight.
The Eagles have a deadly passing game, but it’s mostly thanks to the offensive line and run game setting that up. Philly is still fourth in the NFL in rush rate this season (50.85%).
This is a good primetime spot for Hurts to stay under this mark as the Philly rush offense carves up a vulnerable Packers front seven.
Pick: Under 29 Pass Attempts
Aaron Rodgers
Over/Under 224.5 Passing Yards
If I'm projecting this game right, Philadelphia will go rush-heavy. That will slow the game down considerably and suck all the volume out of both passing attacks.
That will significantly hinder Rodgers, who will see little time with the ball while the Eagles string together 15-play, eight-minute touchdown drives.
However, I have a feeling that Matt LaFleur is going to attack Philly on the ground as well.
The Eagles have one of the best pass defenses in the NFL. The cornerback duo of Darius Slay and James Bradberry has shut down opposing wide receivers, and Philly is third in Pass Defense DVOA as a result.
However, the Eagles are also vulnerable to the run game. Surprisingly, Philadelphia is just 26th in Rush Defense DVOA and 29th in Rush EPA per play allowed.
So the Eagles have dominated opposing quarterbacks while opposing coaches try to attack Philadelphia on the ground. As a result, the Eagles have held eight of their 10 opposing quarterbacks under their passing yards total.
Rodgers and his receiving corps have had no luck through the air this season, but this is a great spot to avoid that altogether and attack with Green Bay’s two bruising running backs.
However, LaFleur has been pushing the run more as the season has progressed. The Packers have posted a negative Pass Rate Over Expectation in four consecutive weeks.
This should be an ugly, rush-first game, meaning Rodgers gets few opportunities. And given the situation, I don’t expect Rodgers to take advantage of those opportunities.
Therefore, I’ll fade him in the PrizePicks market.
Pick: Under 224.5 Pass Yards
