For Monday Night Football, oddsmakers were on point, providing very few edges in the player props market. I was forced to write up John Bates, which was a winner but one I wasn't hugely enthusiastic about.
For the Packers vs Titans matchup on Thursday Night Football, Sean Koerner's projections on Action Labs are showing much, much more in terms of value for bettors to take advantage of. There are many edges across the board, but these two stood out.
Both Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Aaron Jones are coming off big Week 10 performances. We're going to back them to keep it going on Thursday night.
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
Over 20.5 Receiving Yards (FanDuel)
For the sake of this exercise, I’m going to throw out the Titans’ two games that saw Malik Willis start since their passing attack with the rookie was non-existent.
There was likely some concern about Westbrook-Ikhine’s role in the Titans offense entering Week 10 for a few reasons. First, there was the returning Treylon Burks. Then, there was the lack of production for Westbrook-Ikhine.
Westbrook-Ikhine didn’t play more than 68% of snaps in any of the Titans’ first four games with Burks healthy. In the five games without him, he didn’t play less than 74%. It was encouraging for Westbrook-Ikhine that he played 77% of offensive plays with Burks back against the Broncos last week.
And boy, did Westbrook-Ikhine deliver. He had five catches for 119 yards and two touchdowns (the only two that Tennessee scored) against the Broncos in a win.
In his first eight games, Westbrook-Ikhine saw a combined 15 targets. He got eight against Denver.
Still, he’s gone over this total three times in seven games this season, and he’s done it twice while playing alongside both Burks and Robert Woods.
The concern here is that the Titans use the pass to complement Derrick Henry’s rushing attack against a 30th-ranked Packers run defense, according to Football Outsiders.
We’ll back Westbrook-Ikhine again, though, because Action Labs projects him for 29.8 receiving yards on Thursday Night Football.
Aaron Jones
Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (BetMGM)
The Packers are 3-1 when Aaron Jones gets 15 or more carries this season. Coincidence? I think not.
Jones is averaging 5.6 yards per carry this season, which would be the highest of his very impressive career. For some reason, there was a three-game stretch where he saw a combined 30 carries from Weeks 5-7. The Packers went 0-3 during that stretch.
Without Davante Adams, Jones is clearly the Packers’ best offensive player. The offense also clearly does better when he’s fed the ball early and often. Jones had 26 total touches and gained 156 yards against the Cowboys in the Packers’ much-needed win on Sunday.
Granted, this matchup against the Titans isn’t ideal since the Tennessee defense ranks first in Football Outsiders’ Rush DVOA metric. On a short week and coming off a stellar rushing performance, though, it would be a big surprise if the Packers suddenly went pass-heavy.
To hit this over, Jones would need just 11 carries based on his yards-per-carry average. He’s projected for 67 rushing yards by Action Labs, giving this over a big edge.
Pick: Aaron Jones Over 56.5 Rushing Yards |
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