The Green Bay Packers look to ride momentum on Thursday night as they welcome in the TennesseeTitans.
Fresh off a comeback win over the Cowboys, the Packers find themselves still in playoff contention in a struggling NFC. A win tonight would be a huge boost for a team that looked dead in the water two weeks ago.
As for the Titans, they enter this game coming off a win against Denver in Ryan Tannehill’s return from injury. Tennessee remains in first place in the AFC South after its fifth one-score win.
Here’s a Packers-centric same-game parlay for Thursday Night Football.
Packers
ML -178
Christian Watson
Over 40.5 Receiving Yards
We finally saw some life from Green Bay last week, coming back from 14 points down in the fourth quarter to take down the Cowboys in overtime. But more importantly, we saw Christian Watson’s breakout game.
The rookie receiver hauled in three touchdowns and finished with 107 yards on four receptions. He was targeted on 42% of dropbacks and played a career-high 84% of snaps. This is not a fluke, and Watson is finally showing his potential.
I think his receiving yards prop is worth a look here once again. He’s the main receiver in Green Bay now and at 39.5, our Action Labs projections show a slight edge to the over, projecting him for closer to 43.5.
We’ve seen how Aaron Rodgers gets when he begins to trust a wide receiver, and right now Watson is his guy. I’m backing him to put up another strong performance here.
Titans +3.5 | Packers -3.5
The returning Randall Cobb also gives the Packers much-needed depth at WR with Romeo Doubs out. Aside from Watson last week, it was Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon who dominated against Dallas, combining for 203 rushing yards on 37 carries.
The Packers are finally showing some life and even on a quick turnaround, I expect them to win their second straight. While David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins carry questionable tags entering Thursday, though I’d expect them to play, which would be a positive for both the rush attack and pass rush.
As for the Titans, they’re a bit of a one-trick pony. After a great showing against Kansas City, they barely eked by the injury-riddled Denver Broncos. While Ryan Tannehill returned, he didn’t look particularly effective and now has a quick turnaround.
The Titans will go as Derrick Henry does. The Packers are a run-funnel defense that ranks eighth in passing DVOA and 30th against the run. If Green Bay is able to establish a lead, they should have no issues shutting down Tannehill, who has a 49.7 QBR this season.
Unless Henry rushes for 200 yards, I don’t see the Titans being able to pull this one out. The Packers are starting to gain momentum and I expect them to defend home field advantage en route to a win.
Robert Tonyan
Over 28.5 Receiving Yards
The Tennessee defense ranks No. 1 in rush DVOA, but it struggles against the pass. Kristian Fulton should return to the Titans secondary so rather than targeting a Packers receiver, I love Robert Tonyan in a bounce-back spot on Thursday night.
For starters, the Titans struggle against tight ends. They give up the third-most receiving yards per game (64.67) on about 5.5 receptions.
Aside from the obvious Travis Kelce, Tennessee’s has struggled against the likes of Mo Alie-Cox (85 yards), Noah Gray (45 yards), Kylen Granson (62 yards), Foster Moreau (44 yards), Dawson Knox (41 yards) and even John Bates (39 yards).
Tonyan is arguably a step up from all those tight ends aside from Knox and enters off a down game where he hauled in just one reception for eight yards. Prior to that dud, Tonyan went over this number in his previous four games.
Tonyan is the main pass-catching tight end for Green Bay and a safety valve for Rodgers underneath coverage. Jones also provides a checkdown opportunity, but he may even be off the field at times after being limited in practice on a short week.
The Packers are going to need to pass the ball to win against a stout Titans rush defense and while Watson will have his deep shots, I love Tonyan at this number. He can very well eclipse 30 yards on just three catches but should see close to six targets from Rodgers in this contest.
Tonyan is a reliable receiver and given Tennessee’s struggles, he's worth a shot at this number.
A.J. Dillon
25+ Rushing Yards
Despite Tennessee’s success defending the rush, I still like Dillon in this spot here.
As I mentioned earlier, Jones has been a limited participant in practice all week. He could see less snaps or more receiving work, which would lead to Dillon being used in the trenches.
I love getting Dillon at 25+ yards on the ground considering we should see him get 12-15 rushes. Following the narrative that the Packers will win, Dillon should be used often in the second half, especially when running the clock out late.
Last week, Dillon ran 13 times against the Cowboys for 65 yards. He’s received double-digit carries in eight of 10 games and when he sees that type of workload, he’s gone over every time. In Packers wins, he’s 4-for-4 in favor of the over 25, too.
If the Packers are going to win this game, they are going to need to establish the run. While Jones is the RB1, Dillon’s usage is heavy when on the field. In his 24 snaps last week, he saw 13 touches.
Plus, if Bakhtari and Jenkins both play, that’s another benefit for the third-year back. Dillon averages 4.1 yards per carry and has broken a rush for double-digit yardage in all but three games this season.
As long as Green Bay doesn’t fall in a deep hole early, I expect Dillon to be leaned on plenty here.
The Parlay (+648)
- Packers ML
- Christian Watson o39.5 Receiving Yards
- Robert Tonyan o28.5 Receiving Yards
- AJ Dillon 25+ Rushing Yards
