The Packers vs. Vikings over/under is on the move. Oddsmakers opened the total for this NFC North showdown at 46.5. Lopsided action (more than 70% of dollars) is on the over, forcing bookmakers to increase the number to 47.
Casual bettors are expecting a shootout, but history says they could be disappointed.
Since 2003 the under is 838-742-29 (53.0%) in division games, returning a profit of $4,945 for a $100 bettor according to Bet Labs. Unders have been a smart play in division games as increased familiarity between teams (play-calling tendencies) creates a lower-scoring environment.
Odds as of Monday at 8 a.m. ET and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it has been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points). It is just easier for unders to cash when more points were expected to be scored.
Packers vs. Vikings Betting System Pick
The optimal time to bet these division unders is late in the season. Injuries can limit what an offense wants to do, as most teams are not at full strength.
In this scenario, division unders have gone 190-113-3 (62.7%) since 2003. A $100 bettor following this simple strategy has returned a profit of $6,755.
Of course, it is not just history that points to value on the under in this matchup. Sean Koerner’s power ratings make the total 45.5 and the Action Network’s NFL model projects the teams to combine for 43.8 points.
The public loves the over tonight, but history and the numbers say the under is the smart play.
