Packers at Vikings Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Vikings -4.5
- Over/Under: 47
- Kickoff: 8:15 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: ESPN
Odds as of Monday afternoon and via FanDuel, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
The NFC North (and NFC's No. 1 seed!) are still up for grabs as the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings face-off in the final Monday Night Football game of the season.
Our experts reveal how they're betting this high-stakes divisional clash, featuring Matthew Freedman's spread pick and Sean Koerner's favorite prop.
Matthew Freedman: Vikings -4.5
Under Mike Zimmer (since 2014), the Vikings have had all sorts of regular-season against-the-spread edges.
- At home: 31-14-1, 33.7% ROI
- As favorites: 36-18-1, 29.4% ROI
These trends make sense within the context of who Zimmer is as a coach and what kind of team the Vikings are.
Zimmer is a focused, no-nonsense, risk-averse, process-oriented, defense-directed "manager" (for lack of a better word), and the Vikings are a disciplined team that doesn’t often make big mistakes.
They don’t waste the natural advantage they have at home. And they don’t play down to the level of their underdog opponents. And this week, two of Zimmer’s historical edges line up.
As home favorites, the Vikings are 25-10-1 ATS (38.4% ROI).
Sean Koerner: Stefon Diggs longest reception over 25.5 (-115)
The Vikings will be without RBs Dalvin Cook and (likely) Alexander Mattison tonight. It’s going to be the Mike Boone show, but we could also see the Vikings throw the ball slightly more, as this is the first time Minnesota will get WR Adam Thielen close to 100% and playing his normal snaps.
Stefon Diggs has benefited whenever Thielen has been in the lineup, averaging 79.4 yards in eight games, compared to 72.3 when Thielen is out. The Packers won’t be able to double team Diggs as a result and it could lead to a couple big plays. It’s worth noting that the Packers have allowed the seventh-most 20-plus-yard completions and the second-most 40-plus-yard completions on the season. All of these factors are screaming value on this prop — and that's before I even get to my projections.
I am in line with the market having Diggs projected for 4.6 receptions and 72 yards. His median yardage projection is a bit lower at 66.5, so you can find some value in the 53-55% range on the under at sites that are floating 72.5 as his over/under. But that expected win rate is barely enough to clear the vig, and that’s not what these “Prop of the Game” plays are about. In my 10,000 games simulation, I also pulled the metrics for Diggs longest catch vs. the Packers and discovered the following results for this market:
- Average: 31.8
- Median: 33.0
For this specific prop, the median is actually higher than the mean. As always, the median is all we care about when betting on player props so there is about a 7.5-yard edge here. The next step is to see how often he clears the 25.5 numbers books are offering and I’m getting him over that total 61.5% of the time in my sims, which means I would bet this price up to -150. Give me the over.
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