In an interesting Sunday evening matchup, Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers open up on the road in Minnesota against Kirk Cousins and the Vikings.
Top receiver Davante Adams is now in Las Vegas, leaving the Packers with a lot of holes to fill at the receiver position. Meanwhile, Kevin O’Connell makes his head coaching debut with Minnesota.
Where is the value on Sunday? Can the Vikings open up the season with a divisional win against the top dog Packers?
Here’s a same-game parlay as side entertainment for this NFC North affair.
Vikings ML (-122)
This is the perfect spot to fade Aaron Rodgers and the Packers.
I am extremely high on the Vikings as is, but the injuries piling up in Green Bay in life without Davante Adams is too much to overcome in Week 1.
Rodgers has himself a near-brand new receiving corp with Allen Lazard likely out. While Robert Tonyan looks like he’ll play, Rodgers will be left with his running back duo of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon, Sammy Watkins, and then a pair of rookie wide receivers in Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson.
Adams’ loss is a huge one to replace, especially early on. Last year against Minnesota alone, Adams hauled in 18 receptions for 251 yards and three touchdowns. He was Rodgers’ safety blanket, and a reliable one.
Tack on tackles David Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins both entering Sunday as questionable with knee injuries, and Rodgers is left with a mess to sort through entering the season.
The Vikings on the other hand are undervalued here. Kevin O’Connell takes over at the helm but I don’t expect any growing pains in his debut. He has a sense of familiarity with Kirk Cousins from their Washington days and the Vikings are a well-equipped offense.
The last time these two faced off at U.S. Bank Stadium, the Vikings held on for a 34-31 win.
Give me Minnesota here to start the season strong against Rodgers and the Pack.
Aaron Jones
Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Given the receiving corp that Rodgers is left with and based on reports entering the season, the Packers will be using Aaron Jones plenty in Week 1.
Jones is a dynamic back and could see the Packers lining him up as a receiver on Sunday, too. Last year, Jones had 61 receptions for 520 yards including 129 in the NFC Divisional Round against the 49ers.
I understand this number is a bit high — Jones eclipsed this number five times in 16 games — but that came when Davante Adams lined up alongside Jones.
I’m extremely high on Jones, especially in the receiving game entering 2022 and am buying low on a number I think will be in the 40s come next week.
AJ Dillon
Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
I expect a big day out of the two-headed monster of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon. While Jones thrives in the passing game, Dillon should slowly take hold of the rushes.
There’s a lot to love about Dillon and his bullrush nature. He took tremendous strides his sophomore season, rushing for 803 yards on 187 attempts.
To me, this number is too low for Dillon who should get double-digit carries in this game. Especially with the question marks surrounding Rodgers’ receiving corp, it’s very plausible Matt LaFleur relies on the ground game to get going.
In games where Dillon had 10-plus carries, he reached at least 50 yards every single time. Even with Jones in the backfield alongside Dillon, the Packers could run two running back sets more often than not. And I trust Dillon on the ground way more than Jones.
Adam Thielen
ATD (+165)
If there’s a Viking that has the connection with Kirk Cousins, especially in the red zone, it’s Adam Thielen.
Justin Jefferson is always the obvious choice when it comes to touchdowns — and he did score seven last season in the red zone on 23 targets — but it’s Adam Thielen who has been Mr. Reliable.
Thielen was targeted 15 times in the red zone last year, hauling in 13 receptions and nine touchdowns. Yes, nine.
The attention will be on Jefferson — especially from Jaire Alexander — and I expect Thielen to get a majority of the looks. In a game where I see the Vikings marching down the field often and at +180, I think it’s worth a shot on Thielen here.
Parlay Recap (+1634)
- Minnesota Vikings ML (-122)
- Aaron Jones — Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
- AJ Dillon — Over 45.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
- Adam Thielen — Anytime TD (+165)
