Panthers vs. Texans Odds & Picks
| Pick |
|---|
| Panthers-Texans Under 43.5 |
| David Johnson Over 18.5 Rush Yards |
| Terrace Marshall Over 28.5 Rec Yards |
Under 43.5
Sean Koerner: Despite his improved play, it would be difficult for me to bet on Sam Darnold as a 7.5-favorite on the road, or to bet on Texans rookie quarterback Davis Mills in his first start. Therefore, I'm playing the under.
The Texans had only three days to prepare the raw rookie for his NFL debut against the No. 1 ranked defense in Football Outsiders' DVOA. On the flip side, the Panthers will likely have a conservative game plan that leans on their running game and defense.
I’m projecting this total closer to 41.5 points, but it’s critical to grab the under at 43.5 considering 43 is a valuable number for totals. FanDuel is still offering 43.5 as of writing, but be sure to shop for the best real-time number using our NFL odds tool.
» More of our experts — including Chris Raybon and Stuckey — are betting this under. Find all of their picks in our app.
David Johnson Over 18.5 Rush Yds
Mike Randle: Teams always have a more diverse running back deployment on Thursday Night Football given the short turnaround. Look no further than last week, when Washington's backup RB J.D. McKissic tallied nine touches after just one total touch in Week 1.
Houston hosts Carolina with a lead running back who is 31 years of age. I expect David Johnson's usage to continue upwards and like the over on this rushing total. Johnson has only nine carries for 35 yards on the season, but saw the double the carries of Week 2 from the opening game
Carolina is currently an 8-point favorite (check real-time NFL odds here), indicating a negative game script dominated plan. Johnson is clearly the best receiving RB option among Mark Ingram and Phillip Lindsay. If Houston is trails at all tonight, Johnson would see an increase in snap share, providing even more opportunity to beat this total or early down runs and draw plays.
Sean Koerner's projection in our FantasyLabs Player Prop Tool sits at 24 rushing yards — 29.7% above the threshold. I would back this number up to 19.5 with the expectation that Houston tries to balance Ingram's workload during a shortened week.
Terrace Marshall Over 28.5 Rec Yds
Koerner: One of my favorite prop betting strategies is to target rookies before they break out, investing in them at numbers we can look back and laugh at, which brings me to this Terrace Marshall prop.
Marshall was a first-round talent who ended up falling to the Panthers in the second round of the 2021 draft. It wasn’t the best landing spot for Marshall, considering the Panthers already have D.J. Moore and Robby Anderson — not to mention that it's unlikely Sam Darnold will be able to support three WRs every week. However, Marshall is too good to take a backseat for long.
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady is already familiar with Marshall from their LSU days, so Brady will be able to maximize Marshall's potential within his scheme.
Marshall is off to a slow start with lines of 3/26/0 and 3/17/0 so far, but his role will only increase as the season progresses, and this seems like the perfect time to invest in a potential breakout.
PointsBet is offering the best line as of writing, but be sure to check whichever books you have access to.
