Texans vs. Panthers Odds
| Texans Odds | +7.5 |
| Panthers Odds | -7.5 |
| Over/Under | 43 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | NFL Network |
The Panthers are 8-point road favorites, getting 80% of the bets and 85% of the money. The total sits at 43 and is getting 60% of the bets, with 52% of the money.
The Panthers' Recipe To Hot Start
The Panthers are off to a 2-0 start, thanks in large part to their defense that ranks No. 1 in Football Outsiders' DVOA, but also thanks to the best supporting cast Sam Darnold has had in his four NFL seasons. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady is doing an excellent job of scheming plays that get the ball into the hands of the Panthers' playmakers, thus taking a lot of the pressure off Darnold, who seems on his way to a career year.
On Thursday night, I expect them to have a very conservative game plan in which they lean on Christian McCaffrey and the run game even more.
Betting Impact of Texans' QB Change
Tyrod Taylor's hamstring injury was severe enough to land him on IR. As a result, the Texans will be forced to start third-round rookie Davis Mills for at least the next three games. I don't think Mills is ready for NFL action, so I have lowered my Texans power rating four points following the QB change, and I'm now projecting the Panthers as 7-point favorites.
Panthers vs. Texans Pick
It would be difficult for me to bet on Darnold as a 7.5-favorite on the road or to bet on Mills in his first NFL start. Therefore, the play here is the under.
The Texans only had three days to prepare the raw rookie for his NFL debut against the No. 1 ranked defense in DVOA. On the flip side, the Panthers will likely have a conservative game plan that leans on their running game and defense.
I'm projecting this total closer to 41.5 points and I think it's critical to grab the under at 43.5 considering 43 is a valuable number for totals, so be sure to shop for the best number.
Pick: Under 43.5 | Shop for the best line here
