Parris Campbell NFL Combine Prop Bet: Over/Under 4.38 Seconds in the 40-Yard Dash?

The 2019 NFL Combine is underway and performance props are available at some sportsbooks. Our staff is making official picks for a number of different prospects, including wide receiver Parris Campbell.

Here’s the workout schedule for the various position groups:

• Friday: Running backs, offensive linemen, kickers, special teams
• Saturday: Quarterbacks, wide receivers, tight ends
• Sunday: Defensive linemen, linebackers
• Monday: Defensive backs

Now let’s dig into the Campbell prop, as well as our analysis based on research and official combine data going back to 2006.

Parris Campbell 40-Yard Dash Time

• Over 4.38 Seconds: +200
• Under 4.38 Seconds: -300

Ohio State wide receiver Parris Campbell is expected to be the fastest player at his position at the combine.

In a class teeming with prototypical big-bodied wideouts, Campbell has a more modest size at 6-foot and 205 pounds. Plus, he's a track athlete. In high school, he set the state record the indoor 60-meter dash.

At Ohio State, he was a big-play producer. As a kick returner, he averaged 30.4 yards per return. As a rusher, he averaged 9.1 yards per carry. As a receiver, he had a 90-1,063-12 stat line, becoming the first player since 2004 (when Urban Meyer was at Utah) to have a 1,000-yard receiving campaign in a Meyer offense.

Campbell is clearly an explosive player.

But that doesn't mean he's going to run the 40-yard dash faster than 4.38 seconds.

Over the past 19 years (since 2000), just 16 combine wide receivers have run the 40 in no more than 4.37 seconds at 200-plus pounds.

• Marquez Valdes-Scantling (2018): 4.37 seconds at 6'4" and 206 pounds
• Kevin White (2015): 4.35 seconds at 6'3" and 215 pounds
• Ryan Swope (2013): 4.34 seconds at 6'0" and 205 pounds
• Chris Conley (2013): 4.35 seconds at 6'2" and 213 pounds
• Stephen Hill (2012): 4.36 seconds at 6'4" and 215 pounds
• Ricardo Lockette (2011): 4.34 seconds at 6'2" and 211 pounds
• Darrius Heyward-Bey (2009): 4.30 seconds at 6'2" and 210 pounds
• Mike Sims-Walker (2009): 4.35 seconds at 6'2" and 209 pounds
• Will Franklin (2008): 4.37 seconds at 6'0" and 214 pounds
• Andre Caldwell (2008): 4.35 seconds at 6'0" and 204 pounds
• Calvin Johnson (2007): 4.35 seconds at 6'5" and 239 pounds
• Jason Hill (2007): 4.36 seconds at 6'0" and 204 pounds
• Devin Aromashodu (2006): 4.35 seconds at 6'2" and 201 pounds
• Chad Jackson (2006): 4.32 seconds at 6'1" and 213 pounds
• Tyrone Calico (2003): 4.34 seconds at 6'4" and 223 pounds
• Chris Chambers (2001): 4.33 seconds at 6'0" and 210 pounds

There's a chance we won't see such a receiver this year. And there's a decent chance that, if we do, he won't be Campbell.

I expect Campbell to do well at the combine, but at +200 odds, there's a 33.3% implied probability that he'll run slower than 4.38 seconds. (I'm assuming that 4.38 is a push.)

I appreciate the enthusiasm for Campbell, but it just seems absurd that even a respected prospect with good athleticism would be widely expected to run faster than 4.38 seconds at 200-plus pounds.

I know that last summer he reportedly ran a 4.26-second 40.

He's a fast dude.

But that was a hand-timed 40. Electronically, that would be a 4.31. And that time wasn't taken by a neutral scout. That time could easily be shaded his direction by a couple hundredths of a second.

And perhaps that run wasn't a one-off effort. Maybe it was just the best, cherry-picked attempt out of several 40s.

And there's a real difference between running the 40 under optimal circumstances during the summer — rested, on your home field and among supportive teammates and coaches — than running it at the combine — tired from interviews and other drills, in a nerve-inducing new environment and surrounded by peers competing against you.

I openly acknowledge that this could look like a horribly bad bet in hindsight, and I wouldn't bet the over any lower than +200.

But there's a reason we typically don't see medium-sized guys run blazing 40s at the combine: It's hard to do.

The Pick: Over 4.38 Seconds (+200)

More 2019 NFL Combine Props

• The Action Network NFL Podcast: 2019 Combine
• 2019 NFL Combine Props: What Will Be the Fastest 40-Yard Dash?
• 2019 NFL Combine Prop: Rich Eisen 40-Yard Dash
• Betting Kyler Murray’s 40-Yard Dash and Vertical Jump
• Dwayne Haskins NFL Combine Prop Bets: 40-Yard Dash and Vertical Jump
• Josh Jacobs NFL Combine Prop Bets: Over/Under 4.5 Seconds in 40-Yard Dash?
• D.K. Metcalf NFL Combine Prop Bet: Too Jacked to Run the 40-Yard Dash in Under 4.50?
• N’Keal Harry NFL Combine Prop Bet: Over/Under 4.6 Seconds in the 40-Yard Dash?
• Nick Bosa NFL Combine Prop Bets: Bench Press and 40-Yard Dash
• Josh Allen NFL Combine Prop Bets: Over/Under 4.6 Second in 40-Yard Dash?
• Rashan Gary NFL Combine Prop Bets: How Freaky Is Michigan’s Stud Lineman?
• Greedy Williams NFL Combine Prop Bet: Over/Under 4.36-Second 40 for Draft’s Best Corner?
• Devin White NFL Combine Prop Bets: Just How Fast Will He Run the 40-Yard Dash?
• 2019 NFL Combine Prop Bet: Will A Player’s Nike Shoe Break?
• 2019 NFL Combine Prop Bet: Will Kyler Murray Run the 40-Yard Dash?

Matthew Freedman is the Editor-in-Chief of FantasyLabs. He has a dog and sometimes a British accent. In Cedar Rapids, Iowa, he’s known only as The Labyrinthian.