Stop me if you've heard this one before: Patrick Mahomes drives his team downfield for a potential go-ahead score at the end of a tight game only to be upended by one of his own wide receivers. It's becoming a frustrating theme for the Chiefs, who are used to their quarterback's heroics at the end of close games.
The last time it happened, Mahomes threw a nearly perfect pass that was dropped in the end zone on the final drive. This time it wasn't a dropped ball that caused the Chiefs to lose a heartbreaker, but rather a penalty committed by the same player who would have scored a touchdown on the play. Kadarius Toney was lined up in the neutral zone on a crucial third down play that would have been the highlight of the year, but was called back.
After the game, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid were upset at the officials for what they perceived to be a bad call.
"I've played seven years and never had offensive offsides called," Mahomes said in the postgame press conference. "If it does, they warn you and there was no warning throughout the entire game and you wait until a minute left to make a call like that."
“It's a bit embarrassing for the National Football League for that to take place,” Chiefs head coach Andy Reid said about the referees not giving a warning to Kadarius Toney for being offsides.
Whether a warning was warranted or not, Toney's penalty eventually forced the Chiefs into a 4th-and-15 situation. Mahomes deep pass to Travis Kelce fell incomplete and sealed the Chiefs' fate.
It's also a tough beat for bettors who expect Mahomes to thrive in these situations. By all accounts, this is a spot where the trends say the Chiefs should have been successful.
The Chiefs closed as less than 3-point favorites, and in such games with Mahomes at quarterback they were 20-7-1 against the spread entering today. Mahomes was 12-6 ATS when the Chiefs weren't listed as the public side — the Bills had 64% of betting tickets in this game, but the money was split 50-50. Mahomes was also 31-3 SU in his previous 34 games in November and December.
None of those trends matter after today's loss, but the Chiefs will certainly be looking for answers to their wide receiver problems as the season winds down.
