Patrick Mahomes Player Props
As we near Chiefs vs. EaglesSuper Bowl 57, Action Network is busy finding every possible betting angle.
Specifically, we're going through each position for both Kansas City and Philadelphia and finding the players who have a mismatch or show value based on our projections.
I've been tasked with the quarterbacks, and this story is all about MVP Patrick Mahomes.
The Chiefs are 1.5-point consensus underdogs, and Mahomes is 7-1-1 ATS as a dog in his career. So, Mahomes is in for a huge day.
But I think it might be a rollercoaster of a game.
Betting Picks
My Mahomes handicap is primarily based on the Eagles defense.
The Eagles boasted arguably the NFL's best secondary this year. They finished second in PFF's coverage grades, first in pass defense DVOA and first in dropback EPA per play allowed.
Darius Slay and James Bradberry finished top 20 among 118 qualified cornerbacks in PFF's grades, and slot cornerback Avonte Maddox finished just outside the top 20. Altogether, this secondary finished third in the league in interceptions with 17.
But the Eagles were not the best rush defense. They finished bottom 10 in both rush defense DVOA and EPA per rush allowed, ending the season 24th in yards per rush allowed (24th).
Philadelphia's rushing trends carried over against opposing quarterbacks. The Eagles finished the regular season 29th in rush yards allowed to quarterbacks and 31st in rush yards per carry allowed.
Justin Fields (95 rush yards), Dak Prescott (41), Kenny Pickett (37) and Ryan Tannehill (34) all experienced success on the ground against Philadelphia.
That should carry over into the Super Bowl, and that's where Mahomes comes in.
I'm a little weary about his rushing yards prop, as I think it's slightly high. However, I think he'll get some important carries, whether designed or on scrambles. Specifically, I think he can sneak into the end zone if the Eagles blitz and play funnel in the red zone.
From a numbers perspective, it's worth a play. Mahomes has five touchdowns in 13 career playoff games, good for a 38.4% win rate that implies closer to +160 odds.
At +470, Mahomes is worth a buy in this market. His high ankle sprain is likely an issue to the public, but I'm not worried about it. I think it allows us to buy Mahomes in this market at a discount.
That brings us to my second favorite Mahomes prop.
Mahomes will leave it all out on the field against this highly talented, ball-hawking secondary. To me, it could be a formula for disaster.
Mahomes has previously left it out on the field in the Super Bowl. He already has four interceptions in his previous two Super Bowls.
Patrick Mahomes to throw an interception (YES +128 ML) ✅ #SuperBowlpic.twitter.com/j8AQEiQoUA
— Nitrogen Sports (@NitrogenSports) February 8, 2021
This is arguably the best secondary he's faced yet.
Mahomes has at least one turnover worthy play in four of his last five games, so he hasn't been immortal.
Ultimately, we should see an uber-aggressive Mahomes through the air and on the ground. Considering the Eagles' talented pass defense and Swiss cheese front seven, I'm playing two high variance Mahomes props in the ATTD and INT markets.
Pick: Over 0.5 interceptions (-115) at BetMGM
Pick: Any Time Touchdown Scorer (+390) at FanDuel
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