Next week’s match against the Bills marks Patrick Mahomes’ 15th postseason start. Remarkably, it marks his first on the road. He’s played 11 home playoff games, going 9-2 straight up and 7-4 against the spread, and three neutral site Super Bowl games in which he went 2-1 SU and ATS.
So, what can we expect out of Mahomes from a performance and betting perspective?
For starters, going on the road might not be as big of a deal as you’d think. His record’s actually better away from home, going 39-11 SU on the road and 35-11 at home. He’s also more profitable ATS as the visitor, going 28-20-2 in road/neutral games and 20-25-1 at Arrowhead Stadium.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs opened as 2-point dogs the second the final whistle sounded in the Bills’ 31-17 win over the Steelers.
Mahomes has been an underdog in only 10 career games including the postseason and has gone 8-1-1 ATS in those games. He’s 6-3 SU and 7-1-1 ATS in nine regular season games. His only postseason game as an underdog came in last year’s Super Bowl, where he completed 21-of-27 passes for 182 yards and three touchdowns for a 131.8 passer rating. He also ran the ball six times for 44 yards as the Chiefs upset the Eagles, 38-35.
Mahomes played seven road games in 2023 after sitting out the Chiefs’ season finale against the Chargers at SoFi Stadium. His numbers were solid, but understandably below his stats in nine home games. Mahomes went 177-for 254 on the road for 1,842 yards, 10 touchdowns and eight interceptions for a 90.4 passer rating. By comparison, he completed 224-of-343 attempts for 2,341 yards, 17 touchdowns and six interceptions for a 94.2 passer rating at home.
Overall, the Chiefs went 6-4 SU and ATS at home this year including last week's playoff game. Meanwhile, the former MVP went 6-2 SU and 4-4 on the road.
Finally, Mahomes already faced the Bills once this year in 20-17 Week 13 loss. He completed 25-of-43 passes for 271 yards, one touchdown and one pick while carrying the ball only once for eight yards.
