Patrick Mahomes Player Props: Super Bowl Interception Prop Pick
So many of this year’s NFL playoff games have been difficult to make predictions for. Contrary to the rest of the postseason though, the Super Bowl matchup poses a rather simple question. Do you trust the dominant regular-season data presented by the San Francisco 49ers? Or do you trust the championship pedigree of the Kansas City Chiefs after knocking off the top-two seeds in the AFC?
Push comes to shove, I trust Kansas City.
Check out more Super Bowl player props and Chiefs vs 49ers predictions below!
The Chiefs have won eight straight division titles, and they’ve participated in five straight AFC Championship Games while winning two Super Bowls during that span. Historically speaking, you definitely shouldn’t bet against them as underdogs. The Chiefs are 9-3 straight up and 10-1-1 against the spread as an underdog with Patrick Mahomes.
However, the better-kept secret is the fact that Chiefs defense has carried this team all season; not their offense. This is highlighted by the Chiefs ranking second in scoring and fifth in yardage per play on the defensive side of the ball as opposed to their offense ranking 15th in scoring and ninth in yardage per play.
Patrick Mahomes Player Props
Betting Picks & Predictions
The way I see it, the Chiefs have advantages over the 49ers in the three most important aspects of any football game – quarterback, head coach and defense.
That said, a Kansas City loss still wouldn’t be all that surprising. The Niners aren’t exactly a bunch of pushovers, and the Chiefs are no strangers to playing down to the competition. But what I can do, is tell you who has the upper-hand in this matchup – and the answer is K.C.
The Chiefs lulled everybody to sleep during the regular season by underperforming on offense – and Mahomes is no exception to that claim as he posted a career low in passing yards per game (261 YPG) and a career high in interceptions (14).
Kansas City’s offense has looked totally different in the playoffs though – it’s actually been much more refined and conservative. After spending most of the season chucking the ball downfield into coverage while trying to identify his No. 2 receiving option behind Travis Kelce – averaging roughly 261 passing yards on 25 attempts per game – Mahomes has averaged just 239 passing yards per game in the Chiefs’ three playoff games despite averaging nearly 10 more attempts during that span (34).
As much as I like the Chiefs in this matchup, I would recommend staying away from Mahomes’ passing overs. Mahomes has attempted 39-plus passes in two of three playoff games, and he still stayed under the 265-yard mark in all three contests while throwing a total of just four touchdown passes.
With that in mind, the main reason why Mahomes’ passing yardage numbers are down in the playoffs is because the Chiefs are connecting on safer and shorter routes as they scheme to lean on their defense and dominate time of possession, which has resulted in Mahomes throwing a grand total of zero interceptions on 103 pass attempts.
If this tune sounds familiar, you aren’t crazy. Mahomes threw zero interceptions on 100 pass attempts in last year’s playoffs while averaging 75 fewer passing yards per game in the postseason than he did during the regular season on five less pass attempts per game.
The formula should be no different on Super Bowl Sunday. Play good defense, protect the football and trust your best player to make enough big plays to get you over the hump.
I think we’ll see Mahomes keep his interception-less postseason streak alive in Super Bowl 58.
Pick: Patrick Mahomes Under 0.5 Interceptions (-110; DraftKings)
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